Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD Price Action Targets Key Resistance Levels

The EURUSD forex pair, often referred to as "Fiber," is one of the most traded currency pairs in the forex market, representing the euro against the US dollar. As a barometer for global economic sentiment, it is heavily influenced by macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy decisions from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Today, the market awaits critical economic data that could impact EUR/USD's direction. From the Eurozone, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will provide key insights into inflation trends, which could signal potential future policy actions from the ECB. Higher-than-forecast CPI results could strengthen the euro by increasing the likelihood of tighter monetary policy. On the US side, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales reports are set to shed light on business activity and consumer demand. If these reports outperform expectations, they could reinforce the dollar's strength, given its role as a leading indicator of economic health. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility as the interplay between these releases unfolds.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EURUSD H4 chart displays a bullish price action, as the pair has successfully broken above the lower cloud line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, indicating potential upward momentum. The last two candlesticks are positive, reflecting buyer confidence as the price moves away from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level toward the 0.618 level. This upward trajectory is further supported by the Williams %R indicator, which stands at -21.39, nearing overbought territory. This suggests that while the bullish trend is strong, traders should remain cautious of potential resistance at the cloud's upper boundary or near the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The Fiber appears poised to challenge higher levels if the momentum persists, with upcoming economic news likely playing a decisive role.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

USDJPY Trading Opportunities Today

The USD/JPY, often dubbed the "Samurai Dollar," is a major forex pair renowned for its liquidity and tight spreads, representing the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Today’s fundamental analysis highlights the upcoming release of the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the FHFA House Price Index, both set for January 28, 2025, which are crucial indicators of the US housing market’s health and could bolster the USD if the data surpasses forecasts. Additionally, the Japanese market will experience a four-day bank holiday starting January 1, 2025, leading to lower liquidity and potential volatility in the USD JPY pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the uploaded USDJPY H4 chart, the pair is in a pronounced bearish trend, as evidenced by the Ichimoku Cloud signaling downward momentum. The price has decisively passed the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and is nearing the 0.382 fib level, indicating the potential for further declines. The RSI is currently reflecting oversold conditions, suggesting a possible short-term consolidation or reversal. Coupled with multiple bearish candles breaking key fib levels, the technical indicators reinforce a cautious outlook for the USD-JPY, emphasizing the importance of monitoring price action and fundamental developments for strategic trading decisions.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

GBP/USD Analysis: Cable Declines in Bearish Channel

The GBP/USD forex pair, often nicknamed "Cable" due to its historical connection via the transatlantic telegraph cable, is one of the most actively traded pairs in the forex market. It represents the exchange rate between the British pound sterling (GBP) and the US dollar (USD), two of the world's most influential currencies. Traders closely monitor this pair’s forecast for insights into the economic conditions and monetary policies of the UK and the US.
Today’s GBP/USD news analysis features several critical USD-focused reports, notably the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index. Both serve as leading indicators of economic health, inflation trends, and consumer confidence. Positive data exceeding forecasts could strengthen the USD by signaling economic expansion, potentially impacting the GBP/USD prices negatively. Simultaneously, GBP traders are attentive to monetary aggregates and mortgage approval data, revealing consumer confidence and lending conditions. Given these developments, the pair's movement will likely hinge on divergent economic trends and central bank policy trajectories. The Fed's hawkish signals via speakers like Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin could further influence market sentiment.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The GBP/USD H4 chart reveals a strong downtrend within a well-defined descending channel. The Cable’s price action is consistently testing and respecting the channel boundaries, suggesting further bearish momentum. The Stochastic RSI shows oversold conditions with its oscillator near the lower band, hinting at potential short-term consolidation or a corrective pullback. The MACD histogram indicates a strong GBP/USD bearish bias, with the signal line diverging below the zero level. These indicators collectively support the likelihood of continued bearish pressure unless major support levels, such as 1.2380, hold firm.
For traders, a break below the lower channel boundary might signal further downside to key levels around 1.2300, while a bullish reversal would require a breach of the upper channel and sustained movement above 1.2550.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD H4 Price Action and Technical Outlook

The EURUSD, commonly known as "Fiber," is the most actively traded currency pair in the forex market, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. It serves as a barometer for global economic strength, monetary policies, and market sentiment due to its high liquidity and correlation with major economic indicators.
Today, the EUR/USD is navigating a mix of fundamental drivers, including the German CPI release, which reflects inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, and low liquidity caused by the Italian Epiphany holiday, which could lead to irregular volatility. While stronger-than-expected German CPI data could support the Euro by bolstering expectations for further European Central Bank tightening, traders are also closely monitoring US PMI reports and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for insights into future US interest rate policies. These events could either amplify the USD's strength or weaken it, depending on their outcomes, making the EURUSD’s price highly sensitive to today’s market developments.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EURUSD H4 chart indicates a clear recovery from a bearish trend, as shown by the Fibonacci retracement levels and the Ichimoku Cloud. The price reversed sharply after touching the 1.000 Fibonacci level and has since recorded several bullish candles. This rally brought the EUR-USD pair up to the 0.786 Fib level, a key resistance point. The opening candles of the current session have been red, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase. Traders should closely watch whether the price can break above the 0.786 Fib resistance, signaling continuation of the bullish trend, or if it retreats further. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates neutral-to-bearish sentiment as the price remains under the cloud, reflecting resistance at higher levels. However, the RSI is climbing from oversold levels and currently hovers around 38.6, indicating improving bullish momentum. While the near-term price action shows hesitation, breaking through the resistance could confirm bullish continuation. Conversely, failure to hold above the 0.786 Fib level could lead to a bearish reversal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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