Currency Trading Dec 11th-15th

[tradewinds]

Yes, nearly all small traders do, but the charts only tells the story about what happened, not what will happen. Will we get good or bad Retails Sales? You can't see that in the charts.

Anyway even if retail sales are good or bad, it doesn t always tell yo what it means for the markets. Sometimes the markets reacts to news and other times it disregards it. What does it say for fundamental analysis when a company announces record profits and its stock drops? OR retail sales come out high but the £ falls? What about when you get ambigious set of data releases in a day, how can you know what way the millions of traders in the world will interpret it? Impossible. Thats why tape reading and markets reaction will tell what the market is actually doing right this moment, it will all be priced into the chart. Of course you can look back and see why later but markets move too fast to try to decipher what should or might happen or what this data may or may not mean. By the time you decide the markets already moved 40 pips...

Greenspan said that trying to predict currency driection is met with as much success as guessing the outcome of a coin toss.

 

[Baruch]

LOL - Baruch, you trade your way, i'll trade mine - there will be pros and cons with both approaches.

I use both charts and fundamentals (news).

 

[Baruch]

Anyway even if retail sales are good or bad, it doesn t always tell yo what it means for the markets. Sometimes the markets reacts to news and other times it disregards it. What does it say for fundamental analysis when a company announces record profits and its stock drops? OR retail sales come out high but the £ falls? What about when you get ambigious set of data releases in a day, how can you know what way the millions of traders in the world will interpret it? Impossible. Thats why tape reading and markets reaction will tell what the market is actually doing right this moment, it will all be priced into the chart. Of course you can look back and see why later but markets move too fast to try to decipher what should or might happen or what this data may or may not mean. By the time you decide the markets already moved 40 pips...

Greenspan said that trying to predict currency driection is met with as much success as guessing the outcome of a coin toss.

I don't care about the news - I care about how the market reacts to the news.

I use charts to see the major trend - and to look for BOs.

But I don't think it's smart only to rely on charts. Most small traders do. And most of them lose.

 

[City Bound]

I've found that listening to CNBC is good for gauging market sentiment. Fundies definitely dictate the overall direction but individual announcements can do anything they like to the market in the instant afterward, it's all about over-reaction.

 

[City Bound]

Long again @683

 

[tradewinds]

I don't care about the news - I care about how the market reacts to the news.

I use charts to see the major trend - and to look for BOs.

But I don't think it's smart only to rely on charts. Most small traders do. And most of them lose.

Most traders lose who only use charts??? REally? Richard Denis, Paul Tudor Jones, ED Seykota...and the list goes on. These guys have some of the best returns ever, 20% compounded over 20 years. Dennis made 400 million in 12 years, and he is one of the most famous techical traders.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Well, that was a little disappointing. Hard to imagine better figures with better than expected sales and higher ingflation expectations. With a strong dollar though this morning, there is nothing happening on the upside. What a shame the figures weren't bad. We could have seen some real carnage.

 

[ChowClown]

...looking for a re-test of 60ish to set up a long to at least 700-710 (5min).

 

[jacinto]

lower highs and higher lows, and the daily as an inside bar.......looks like strong breakout on the making.......wonder if this afternoon.

 

[jacinto]

...looking for a re-test of 60ish to set up a long to at least 700-710 (5min).

dont tell me, WW

 

[ChowClown]

...is that an hrly pin bar i'm seeing?

 

[Baruch]

Most traders lose who only use charts??? REally? Richard Denis, Paul Tudor Jones, ED Seykota...and the list goes on. These guys have some of the best returns ever, 20% compounded over 20 years. Dennis made 400 million in 12 years, and he is one of the most famous techical traders.

I said most, not all, technical traders lose. Most small traders use only charts - and 95% of them lose. Why?

 

[jacinto]

I said most, not all, technical traders lose. Most small traders use only charts - and 95% of them lose. Why?

that has nothing to do with charts, rather with lack of discipline and trading based on emotions.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Short triggered at 61 but sterling seems well contained by the support at 50 unfortunately. If we can get below, it should make a quick move towards 1.9600 but likely as not I'll be stopped before that

 

[jacinto]

Short triggered at 61 but sterling seems well contained by the support at 50 unfortunately. If we can get below, it should make a quick move towards 1.9600 but likely as not I'll be stopped before that

swissy has triggered a long pattern.....reversal on the daily. it is fishy cause neither eurusd or cable have done that. however, the swissy pattern is keeping me away from a long on cable.

and keeping an eye on shorts.

 

[jamesharp]

Swiss interest rates were raised by 0.25% this morning.

 

[jacinto]

Swiss interest rates were raised by 0.25% this morning.

and that weakened the swiss franc cause it was priced in. the chart had it priced in

 

[Baruch]

that has nothing to do with charts, rather with lack of discipline and trading based on emotions.

So maybe the winners are winner not because of the charts, but because of their descipline and trading not based on emotions?

 

[Offshore Trader]

and that weakened the swiss franc cause it was priced in. the chart had it priced in

It would be nice if Cable and EUR/USD could follow the Swissy lead and break out of the range. Euro has tested and bounced. Will it make it next time?

 

[jacinto]

So maybe the winners are winner not because of the charts, but because of their descipline and trading not based on emotions?

I would say that is correct. IMHO 90% is discipline and self control, and 10% is technical ability