Currency Trading Dec 11th-15th

[tradewinds]

Hi OT,

As a fellow trader of morning break-out methods I too have been suffering in the last couple of weeks though this is on the back of the best performing period for my system in the last three years so I can't really complain. However my historic back testing shows that these drawdowns are quite normal for the system that I am trading and I am happily soldiering on. I do agree that having more strings to one's bow is a good thing and I am also developing complimentary approaches. I shall not be abandoning my core method just yet though.

I did look into this method, but I abandoned it, rightlky or wrongly I m not sure. However I thought that the pair is too choppy now so although it maybe profitable, becuase of the choppy trading the its too easy to get stopped out.
Then using a wider stop means bigger losses to recover.

Another point which put me off, was that after I started using it I then saw this method being touted by Kathy Lien, and for sale in many trading magazines. I thought if is still a successful way to trade then it might not be for long...?

I also heard that banks know this method so the banks now run the stops which is what is causing the whipsaw.

I m using another method just because I thought there has to be a better way to trade with more more pips being won. Maybe this method is too easily conceived to be successful and more importantly remain successful. I think the glove fits too tightly on this system meaning it breaks down easily.

I think some kind of filter applied would make this method more successful, meaning you are selecting trades with a higher probability of winning. again you may miss some winners, but miss alot more losers.

When I say filter I mean a method that looks at the previous 2or 3 days price action...very short term volatility meter. Some thing that can statistically quantify the likelyhood of a break out.

 

[ChowClown]

...same here, some important lessons learned so far (i've only been trading live since Jul 1st). Flexibility to deal with varying conditions of paramount importance, to have enough in the trading plan each day to cope with whatever's going on.

 

[City Bound]

Has anyone tried filtering their trade conditions using ATR? By this I mean adjusting your criteria (tradetime, lookback time, s/l, t/p, b/e) for maximum profitability. The reason I ask is that whilst backtesting I found certain combinations of these criteria worked best during periods of a certain ATR.

 

[Baruch]

Rob made 103 pips yesterday:

http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades1206.htm

 

[City Bound]

Break out Long @ 683

EDIT: stop to b/e, hopefully this will be a good test of 725

 

[Baruch]

The BB train has left the station.

PS. I think BB works best when the BO is in same direction as the major trend, and when theres no major news coming out later in the morning. I suppose that if you include those rules you get fewer trades, but more profitable trades.

 

[ChowClown]

Morning all, looks a nice run up so far CB. My breakout long this morning is at 720....typical!

 

[jacinto]

The BB train has left the station.

PS. I think BB works best when the BO is in same direction as the major trend, and when theres no major news coming out later in the morning. I suppose that if you include those rules you get fewer trades, but more profitable trades.

morning all,

baruch, 930 is going to move the market

http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar

 

[jacinto]

Morning all, looks a nice run up so far CB. My breakout long this morning is at 720....typical!

morning chow,

well, about typical, i still wont play until a clean break of 30, so there you go, worse off entry.....but probably safer

 

[ChowClown]

...the vebo entries have been dumber than usual recently, but even so, longer term it's still a method with +ve expectancy. Just goes to show how important exits are

 

[City Bound]

damn, stopped.

 

[Baruch]

morning all,

baruch, 930 is going to move the market

http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar

Yes, I agree. And I suppose that why the BB train has problems right now.

 

[City Bound]

I really really want to go long again.....must.....resist......temptation.....

 

[Baruch]

...the vebo entries have been dumber than usual recently, but even so, longer term it's still a method with +ve expectancy. Just goes to show how important exits are

In my opinion the market is much more news-driven than before. So study the news instead of the charts.

 

[ChowClown]

....i'll stick with the charts, thanks.

 

[jacinto]

....i'll stick with the charts, thanks.

is there anything else

 

[City Bound]

The issue we have now is that retail sales are expected to come in pretty weak, which will be bearish. Question is, at what point is it safe to re-arm a long?

 

[Offshore Trader]

The issue we have now is that retail sales are expected to come in pretty weak, which will be bearish. Question is, at what point is it safe to re-arm a long?

But...it will only be bearish if weaker than expected. If weak but not as weak as expected it will probably promote buying

 

[Baruch]

....i'll stick with the charts, thanks.

Yes, nearly all small traders do, but the charts only tells the story about what happened, not what will happen. Will we get good or bad Retails Sales? You can't see that in the charts.

 

[ChowClown]

LOL - Baruch, you trade your way, i'll trade mine - there will be pros and cons with both approaches.