Crude Crude Crude

[TWI]

greg, looking at the chart I agree. It was a strange day considering the $ strength which could suggest an upside breakout if the $ gives back its gains tomorrow morning, otherwise I imagine it may stay in this June range that looks very clear on the hourly.

 

[ajtaylor]

please dont laugh at this but, can i just confirm if the USD weakens against the Euro or the GBP the cost of oil goes up? i think tomorrow i will also looking for a fall toward the 135 mark again, but with all the economical factors yet again it could all be in the lap of the gods.......

 

[Greg8501]

Hi, yes, a weak USD is not good for oil for a couple of reasons.

1.) Oil is priced in USD's, thus it become cheaper for non US buyers, e.g, China
2.) Commodities such as oil are used as a hedge against the dollar (and inflation), which sounds a little like a circular argument I know.

 

[Greg8501]

Just a general piece of advice for those not in the experienced trader bucket...I personally spend a good amount of time listening to the opinions of the experts here...watch the videos, they give you a good view, which aids in forming your own opinion.

Oil Prices: Oil Closes Near $137 as Traders Shrug Off Saudi Boost - Futures Commodities Overview * News * Story - MSNBC.com

Interesting views on there today about how distillates have been propping up the market, but the view in this case is that there is more refinery capacity coming on line to take an increase in sweet, as opposed to sour crude (no really - sour = high sulphur content and is not good for turning into diesel etc), thus we should see oil come off over the coming months...

Yet another view...

 

[ajtaylor]

Thanks for that i will have a look, i am doing my up most to try and get info from all over the place and have had some useful advice from other members, so thanks.

just one more question and this more of how brave you are, but i currently have a trading account of £976.00 and i was wondering if this was your personal acc how much per point would you go for currently i am varying between £2/3 not brave but it does me

 

[ajtaylor]

just another one, did you see on bloomberg today they had quire a big piece on oil company directors buying back shares over $2mil in speculation of the oil price dropping down to $110 a barrel, whats your take on this?

 

[Greg8501]

Hmmm, a tough one and one probably better suited to those with more scars than I have, but, my personal approach is relatively classic, i.e. I try to limit the exposure on any one trade to 2-3%, i.e. I manage my risk using stops and calculate my maximum loss upfront, which tends to dictate the size of the trade.

I guess all I can really pass on from personal experience, is don't be tempted to run before you can walk. I initially thought early on that I would aggressively grow my account from small beginnings into something worth trading with, which worked well up to pretty good numbers, before my naivety and lack of experience provided a real boost to IG Group's Q1 revenues.

Bottom line, use stops always, if the amount you lose hurts if and when you get stopped out, then re-group and tweak your approach.

Bed time. Good luck

Greg

 

[ajtaylor]

Taken on board

Another day, Another dollar

 

[jonnyace]

aj

I don't normally post but your question on money management caught my eye - with £950 you shouldn't be trading crude! It's ATR is currently 450/day - at £3/point you will last about 3 days at the most and be claimed as another scalp by IG. Start on the smaller stuff and work up.

 

[SAINT]

Buying put options out of the money or at the money would be better than futures. We're still in the midst of a hysteria point where no bearish news will affect the market. Just like JPY carry trades, property, FTSE a year + ago. YAWN.

 

[si1503]

So, what next for the oil price people? Can anyone else see it nudging 150 over the next couple of weeks and perhaps beyond?

 

[doberman]

NO on it way down till the 3th up to fall back till the 130s not going to see 150$ to after the summer and if so only for a blimp.

 

[si1503]

Do not totally understand that post? "On the way down till the 3th up to fall back" huh?

 

[spanish89]

OK he is what will actually happen...

(You can all ignore me like normal n think it a joke, but the last 5 times i was correct in my forecast)

Oils gna fall back about $1 on open on monday, hover abit, then go up abit more to between 142 and 145.
But once it hits 143/45 all the big buyers who are in the pits buying it will suddenly realise probs during their lunch break that no1 will actually be able to afford to pay that much to buy the oil off them!!


The big airlines n petrol stations will still have to buy oil as they cant survive without it...,
but they will but over 25% less oil as they will have to have a big scale down on the number of flights they can run, as no passengers and petrol station customers will be able to keep affording n using oil at the current rate they do when its this expensive.

So everyone will cut down buying the oil,
And so these big buyers will then relaise they are gna be fked cos will be stuck with a load of spare extremely high pice oil!!


THerefore they will all start to try and shift it quick back into the market at discount prices, and therefore the price will fall back to around 135/137.

 

[i love spanish]

spanish my little armani suited hunk of a trader, these are truly words of a prophet, i have never read such writings on these forums, you are utterly amazing, no one else here can think the same way as you, i wish i knew what all the Pit Traders were going to think 24 hours ahead, you are truly one of the most remarkable traders i have come across !

i have changed my mind again, i was in love with Dante for a minute, but he tried to squeeze me for size !

Spanish its you i want, i want to show you my Equity curve and let you spread up my bund bobl and schatz gggggrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[Mr. Charts]

spanish my little armani suited hunk of a trader, these are truly words of a prophet, i have never read such writings on these forums, you are utterly amazing, no one else here can think the same way as you, i wish i knew what all the Pit Traders were going to think 24 hours ahead, you are truly one of the most remarkable traders i have come across !

i have changed my mind again, i was in love with Dante for a minute, but he tried to squeeze me for size !

Spanish its you i want, i want to show you my Equity curve and let you spread up my bund bobl and schatz gggggrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Stop it, Norma !
You're distracting him from his inate genius.

 

[i love spanish]

that was me not that Norma, shes a cheap tart dressed up like a Rotterdam coal trader

 

[Mr. Charts]

that was me not that Norma, shes a cheap tart dressed up like a Rotterdam coal trader

You'd only know that if you were looking in a mirror

 

[i love spanish]

right thats it

handbags at dawn

 

[si1503]

OK he is what will actually happen...

(You can all ignore me like normal n think it a joke, but the last 5 times i was correct in my forecast)

Oils gna fall back about $1 on open on monday, hover abit, then go up abit more to between 142 and 145.
But once it hits 143/45 all the big buyers who are in the pits buying it will suddenly realise probs during their lunch break that no1 will actually be able to afford to pay that much to buy the oil off them!!


The big airlines n petrol stations will still have to buy oil as they cant survive without it...,
but they will but over 25% less oil as they will have to have a big scale down on the number of flights they can run, as no passengers and petrol station customers will be able to keep affording n using oil at the current rate they do when its this expensive.

So everyone will cut down buying the oil,
And so these big buyers will then relaise they are gna be fked cos will be stuck with a load of spare extremely high pice oil!!


THerefore they will all start to try and shift it quick back into the market at discount prices, and therefore the price will fall back to around 135/137.

Interesting, I concur mostly with Monday's view, another rally into the 140's.. however due to the dollar weakening the rest of the world can still afford oil, this keeps demand up and oil mostly affordable.

There is also the Israel/Iran tension, which could really shift prices upward further.

I try to focus less on where the price has been. What matters to me is where it is now and what are the factors effecting the price going forward. I will remain mostly on the long side, however believe it will continue to swing about a bit in the near term, looking to close at 145-6ish this week before getting in again on the next pullback.

As with yourself, this is entirely my own view and should be taken as such.