I have been trading oil for a while now and find it a fairly interesting trade. Huge vol at the moment, but is tough to pick it day to day. I work for an Inv Bank, so pretty plugged into the data, however, find the whole geo-policitcal events side quite difficult to manage. You can think you have a good view of the market, i.e. overbought, tankers sitting full of oil in the gulf, G8 pressure, Saudi's red faced at amount of cash coming in the door etc...everything macro screams going short, then boom, a site gets knocked out in Nigeria and you are stopped out in a heart beat. I think oil is a great trade, however, you need to get your head around the fact you will be stopped out on a relatively regular basis. My view is that we are headed south, however, nobody can rule out a super spike to 150+.