Racing - The way i arrive at my selection/s
Hi Guys,
I thought i'll let you all know how i decide and arrive at my selection/s.
But i should say this to some or all who would prefer that i give an insight
of summary of the horse/s past performance as to why and what made
me select the given selection/s.
One of the main reason i don't is a personal one, in truth, health and time
Im not in the best of health, full stop, im sure you guys can understand this.
I don't wish to bore you guys, but if you bare with me, i will try my best to
explain my method/s of approach, this approach which im about to say
started when my health took a turn.
So here is how i learnt to arrive at my selections without over working
myself which is what i do not want.
Any racing horse trainer in the UK, have their own method/s of training
their horses hence some trainers become a better trainer then others.
One of a few reasons is, they have a better method then others, they
have better training grounds in their yards, e.g an all weather surface
and a surface which looks like an all weather surface, but its different,
the name of that sort of surface skips my mind at this moment.
Then theres the horses that they have in their yards, the big name
trainers will have better horses who are well bred.
Theres more then what i've just said, but this is sufficient to give you
a good idea.
Heres where i come in, as trainers who are paid to do their job well
by their owners whereby to win races, they have to take into account
of their horses abilities, this is their best distance, weather the horse
in question prefers a galloping track, and will not act well at an
undulating track like Goodwood or even a sharp track with bends
like Chester, then you have the going conditions, then they have
have to place the horse to good effect and off course taking into
account others horses etc etc
So as i was about to say heres where i come in, i have tried to learn
the way the trainer thinks and so forth, which can be done as trainers
are creatures of habits so to speak, this applies to all types of racing,
mainly so the handicap races.
Now you have the offical Jockey Club Handicappers who have a job
to do, and they do a bloody well good job of it, hence its hard to to pick
out just 2 of 10 runners, this is hard as since they do a good job, there
will be quite a few that do have winning chances, a reflection of how
well or badly a horse is rated hence you have the Offical Ratings.
So here once again where i come in, over the years i observe very
carefully how they react to a horse thats won its race, then you have
the ones that are placed 2nd 3rd and so forth.
The class of the race, the form of all the horses are taken into account,
the distance and so on and on, finally the Handicapper arrives at a new
rating for the winners, even the placed horses if need be and some
will be on the same mark.
So i then try and thiink how they would react and i have to study the
fluctuations of the ratings, which is not easy, if it was why then do
you have the private handicappers like Timeform etc, if their ratings
were extremely accurate or very close to the way the Offical Handicappers
rating, then all of us will be millionares and there will be no bookmakers
around and even if there were, they would not take your bet as they know
to well what the likely outcome would be.
I think i have bored you enough, so i will end by saying this,
All my selections are arrived by trying my best to think what and
how is the trainer thinking and so forth.
I then also have to try and think how the Offical Handicappers think
hence the offical ratings, of course its not easy.
Finally, this is about the tipping services, 96% of them do not make
it pay in the long run, and you're winning, its just not good enough
to call it a second income.
No doubt you must have seen in the racing papers that the so called
tipster made a handsome profit, where are hes losers gone to.
To prove my point, you will see that the tipster will say in the racing
post that all hes bets are sent to them as proof of hes profit.
This is what you do, ring them up and ask them in BLACK and WHITE
to substantiate in writing of the claims being made of the so called
profits.
You will not get one-----------WHY ?
Anyway enough said for now.
Have a nice day guys if you can and good luck in what you do today.
Ken
P.S. Pardon me if any written mistakes or errors i have made.
