Country Ken's Tips and racing discussions

[Salty Gibbon]

I don't have lay bets often. As for my strike rate on lays is no less
then 89% as high as 95% to, not trying to impress anyone, just
giving the facts and being honest.

But isn't it true with laying that you often need a 95% win rate just to break even ?

The losses on the 5% can outweigh the wins on the 95% if you are not careful.

 

[Countryken]

Late News

Hi All,

I do hope that you get to see this up-date.

I have another selection in the same race.


3-55 YORK - Standard Bet

No. 21. REALISM - win


Cheers
Ken

 

[Countryken]

Late News - Up-date

Hello All,

I do hope that you get to see this up-date.

I have a further selection in the same race.


3-55 YORK - Standard Bet

No. 21. REALISM - win


Cheers
Ken

 

[Salty Gibbon]

Just a 3rd place out of 3 picks.

Are you losing your touch Ken or is this par for the course so to speak ?

I would point out that 20 horses ran in this race so it is very difficult to pick the winner.

As I have pointed out before it is far easier to pick a winner if there are only 5 to 8 horses in a race and of course, you can get EW odds on a 5 horse race.

Try picking 3 horses ( like you did today ) in a 8 horse race ( rather than a 20 horse race ) and you might stand a chance of bringing home some bacon.

At least I am glad to see that your lay bet lost and you therefore won.

In future I will give a lot of consideration to laying your win tips and in doing so, I would expect to clean up.

 

[Countryken]

Bank Balance & about laying

Hello Folks,

There might be some of you that have lost faith
with my tipping ability. ( i don't blame you )

No excuses, i really don't have a firm explanation.

All i can say is, after many years of my personal knowledge
and eperience in horse racing, is that bad results do happen
hence which is now happening.
There can be important reasons for this, the trainers horses
are not in form, horses do have their off days which is not
running to their best, ground conditions are not suitable,
to certain horses, horses do not perform well at certain
courses and so on. In saying this, i do make sure that
the horses i give out do not fall into any of the reasons
stated above, the term for this is normally used as - thats
racing - but its not good in my books.
Without wanting to bore you, this is what i wil say, the
show must go on as normal.

P.S. I did mention about laying horses, if any one of you
who does understand about laying and wishes to
have them posted when i have any, i'll be more then
willing to do it.

For those who, ( if you don't mind me saying this
might say - what is lay ? )
wish to know briefly about laying, please do ask and
i will be more then willing to shed light on this.


To my best memory ( i've not looked yet ) the Bank Balance
prior to the last 5 advices stood at £485-00 less £25-00

It now stands at £460-00 ( total loss so far = - £40-00 )

Ken

 

[Salty Gibbon]

Losing streaks are inevitable in racing, more so than in trading.

Trading is ( or should be ) calculated risk taking / assessment of probabilities with a good measure of trade management, whereas horse racing is pure gambling.

In trading you can influence the outcome by putting in a stop loss order, cutting losses before the stop loss is hit, taking profits early or letting the trade run to maximum profit. Decisions can be made along the way which influence the eventual financial result.

With horse racing you put your money on and you have no influence on the end result unless you are involved in the business of nobbling horses. You either win a fixed amount or lose a fixed amount.

Additionally I believe that a herd mentality is easier to predict than the mentality or physical well-being of an individual horse.

In that respect trading is easier than horse racing and if you know what you are doing then losing streaks in trading should be much shorter than those you might experience as a result of pure gambling.

I have had a measure of success in the past with a very simple horse racing system and I believe that if I had known anything at all about horses and horse racing, then I might have turned it into a real winner.

Basically it goes like this :-

Select 3 races with minimum 5 to maximum 8 horses per race.

Some days there are loads of these races, other days there are none.

Select 2 horses per race, 6 horses in total.

Back all 6 horses as EW singles and also arrange them into 6 EW doubles bets.

I had little trouble breaking even with this method and some days I had pretty good wins.

Someone like you CountryKen, with long experience and knowledge of horse racing, should be able to clean up with a system run along these lines.

Just a thought.

 

[Countryken]

Todays Advices

Hi All,

Here are the bets for today the 10-7-05 ( Sunday )

P.S. Good Morning/Afternoon

3-40 HAYDOCK - Standard Bet

No. 4. ALONG THE NILE - win bet


4-10 HAYDOCK - Standard Bet

No. 7. WIZARD LOOKING - win bet


Good luck

Regards
Ken

 

[Salty Gibbon]

Phew.

"Along The Nile" wins at SP of 4/1.

Note the number of runners was only 10.

Better Ken.

 

[Countryken]

Bank Balance update

Previous Bank Balance = £460-00

Selections for today the 10-7-05 ( Sunday ) X 2

One ( 1 ) winning selection @ 4-1 S P

Returns from winner @ £5-00 = £25-00

Less stakes = £10-00

Profit for day = £15-00 = 150% of P O I

Starting Bank = £500-00

Bank Balance now stands at = £475-00

Profit/Loss - losses so far = - £25-00


P.S. Stakes are based at £5-00 win on each selection at
level stakes always, profits are worked out at S P


Ken

 

[Countryken]

Next Update will be on------

Good Morning All,

As you all ( most of you i suppose ) know that i only do
group one courses, so the next update will be on the 16-7-05 ( sat )
In saying that, i do look at the racing cards everyday, so if any
of you would wish to know or that i have a horse thats worth a
small wager please do ask and i will be more then willing to
post it.
If anyone does ask, but when theres nothing been posted
up say by 12-30, then i don't have any selections.
Till then, do take care.

Regards
Ken

 

[houdani]

Good Morning All,

As you all ( most of you i suppose ) know that i only do
group one courses, so the next update will be on the 16-7-05 ( sat )
In saying that, i do look at the racing cards everyday, so if any
of you would wish to know or that i have a horse thats worth a
small wager please do ask and i will be more then willing to
post it.
If anyone does ask, but when theres nothing been posted
up say by 12-30, then i don't have any selections.
Till then, do take care.

Regards
Ken

hello ken, nice winner yesterday, i managed £10 pounds on 'along the nile' and did two football matches with it.managed to get a 25/1 treble! look forward to the 16th. thanks again.

 

[Countryken]

Glad for you

hello ken, nice winner yesterday, i managed £10 pounds on 'along the nile' and did two football matches with it.managed to get a 25/1 treble! look forward to the 16th. thanks again.

Hi Houdani,

Im glad you made a profit with the help of my tip.

I hope i can do the same again.

Ken

 

[cj12]

Hi Ken

There is not many who will give free tips, to the public. im sure you are a pro at this game over the years and made you money. I used to gamble on the horses years back, but I was in with a stable, it was not one of top ones, but they had plenty of big prices wins. they used to run the horses in a few races before we place our money.

lets say horse a was running 1.2f.we new its to short for him. then after a few races, when every thing was set up. we put im a 1,4f and he would win. But what happen then they would handicap him. so we would drop him down to 1m and 1,2. till his handicap came down, then we set up a race for im to run 1,4f.this is where we put our money down again.keep it up ken,

sun

 

[Countryken]

Horse Racing

Hi Ken

There is not many who will give free tips, to the public. im sure you are a pro at this game over the years and made you money. I used to gamble on the horses years back, but I was in with a stable, it was not one of top ones, but they had plenty of big prices wins. they used to run the horses in a few races before we place our money.

lets say horse a was running 1.2f.we new its to short for him. then after a few races, when every thing was set up. we put im a 1,4f and he would win. But what happen then they would handicap him. so we would drop him down to 1m and 1,2. till his handicap came down, then we set up a race for im to run 1,4f.this is where we put our money down again.keep it up ken,

sun

Hi Sun,

Thanks for your email, much appreciated.

Well, i did take my racing serious in the past, been in racing
for 40 yrs now.

As for now, i still would treat it serious in the sense to pick
the ones that i feel are likely to have a good or fair chance
of winning.

I totally agree with you about what you said, its getting the Jockey
Club Handicapper to drop the horse concerned by at least few
pounds, and that is done in the way you have said, i do know
most of them who do it now, but its quite hard to predict is it
today that its going to collect, you know what i mean.

Thanks once again, keep in touch if you can, it would be
nice.

Take care

Ken

 

[Countryken]

Racing - bet---------

Hello Everyone,

Yes im aware that i said that the next update is on the 16-7-05
and that i only do group 1 courses.
I do.

But what i totally forgot to say was, there are days when i have
a horse running in a lower grade course, and its chances of
winning is quite good, of course theres no such thing as a
dead cert, but in all honesty, that word dead cert might be used
by trainers, but believee when i say that over the years i have
spoken to quite a few trainers and they have used that term
- dead cert, sadly only to be left dried up - = it lost

Anyway here is one that i feel does have a good chance

Keep watching this thread of mine if you can for if i have
any bet/s i will post it.#


3-15 BEVERLEY

No. 2. HUMBLE OPINION - win bet


Good luck

Regards
Ken

 

[hornblower]

second place Ken
well done !

 

[Countryken]

Thanks and Hello

Hi H,

You're to kind H.

How are you, i trust that you are fine and well.

Please do pop in with a message when you can, knowing
that you're still around and not working to hard or not taking
5 when need be.

see you around H

Regards
Ken

 

[Countryken]

Hello to the others too

Hi to,

Ian, Dave the lovely Jill and etc, as i can't remember some names.

See you guys around.

Take care

Regards
Ken

 

[Countryken]

And least but not last a hello to----------

Hi to,

All those who watch for my bets or view it or what ever, i trust
that you all are fine and well too.

I'll try and pull my finger out to try and get some winners.

Thanks guys.

Regards
Ken

 

[Countryken]

Quite likely there should be a bet and a lay

Hi Everyone,

As the subject states, there should be at least 1 bet and a lay tomorrow
the 13-7-05 from Haydock.

Cheers
Ken