Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

hey all .really tied up .dammit !

yen hasn't melted south ........yet (?)........

Euro and chf still the buys this morning gang ...SOLID !

yen , AUD and GBP (now) have been the sells today

scalping........

at this moment its all hail the rising Yen ........sell UJ and EJ .....shame that Euro is so damn bullish as the EJ sells could have been much much more lucrative at times

GU buys in the mix .......happy to let it drift even to the mid/low 3160's to pick up more rebuys

later......
N
 
Yen and usd totally uncorrelated much today ............doesn't make things easy to play the classic correlation patterns ................that's why we see the uj pair so volatile .........cracking selloffs on this at moment

N
 
hey all - work is crazy this week ....so not much on trading front

us session has been a bearfest for usd ..........yen has held the bull line

have a great weekend ...i'll catch up re videos etc over weekend

N
 
Hi NVP, are you able to estimate how much intuition goes into your trades. If you managed to remove your psychology from your trading how much system would be left?

Do you feel that forex markets are moving to a routine of some form (maybe based on economic news or some other factor) or do you feel they are moving in a random fashion?
 
Signalcalc said:
Hi NVP, are you able to estimate how much intuition goes into your trades. If you managed to remove your psychology from your trading how much system would be left?

based on some recent mentoring sessions with a student (to test some potential forex scalping training courses in 2017) it appears my scalping is much more subjective than I thought .........:LOL:..........should have realised it as my ventures into working with programmers on developing pure EA based scalping systems has also proved harrowing at times :rolleyes:

Do you feel that forex markets are moving to a routine of some form (maybe based on economic news or some other factor) or do you feel they are moving in a random fashion?
Click to expand...

the G8 forex market is predictably unpredictable ..........it has a fuzzy logic to it (another way of looking at it ).........

what I mean is that I can predict patterns and correlation dynamics 80+% of the time .......easy .....no issues

the randomness is the STRENGTH/MOMENTUM of the moves on those patterns before it disperses .........and if I am getting chopped or i'm making money off an extended pattern :)

for example I can expect the forex G8 currencies to offer perhaps 3-4 big moves between 6am and say 11am London mornings..........the final pips in the bank for me will depend on

1) was I trading at that signal
2) how big the move was
3) how many false alarms happened as well

the challenge in trading and why you need experience is how you handle the chop and the losing trades..........a good experienced trader will lose much less money that beginners / intermediates.....he bleeds less.........

and in this game is not just about how much you win .....its about how little you lose (think about that quote) :smart:

N
 
Last edited:
NVP said:
the G8 forex market is predictably unpredictable ..........it has a fuzzy logic to it (another way of looking at it ).........

what I mean is that I can predict patterns and correlation dynamics 80+% of the time .......easy .....no issues

the randomness is the STRENGTH/MOMENTUM of the moves on those patterns before it disperses .........and if I am getting chopped or i'm making money off an extended pattern :)

for example I can expect the forex G8 currencies to offer perhaps 3-4 big moves between 6am and say 11am London mornings..........the final pips in the bank for me will depend on

1) was I trading at that signal
2) how big the move was
3) how many false alarms happened as well

the challenge in trading and why you need experience is how you handle the chop and the losing trades..........a good experienced trader will lose much less money that beginners / intermediates.....he bleeds less.........

and in this game is not just about how much you win .....its about how little you lose (think about that quote) :smart:

N
Click to expand...



Thanks for the thoughts, agree that limiting losses is a way of increasing profits - 2 sides to every trade etc. Risk management is just as important a discipline to master as all the other disciplines that make up trading.
 
hey all............i'm travelling/working next few weeks so little time to trade

heres the week so far ............yen and GBP the buys more recently .......sell cad and usd (2 Aussies bear as well)

the bull currencies have been to +100 pips so far this week (not bad)...only cad has gone -100 pips so far re bears ..........

catch up soon :)
N
 

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so just how much does a quarter percent interest rate cut cost ?

answer - about 200 pips :(

still unable to get to screens much this week as solid meetings ...........have fun you guys

N
 

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morning all.......

Yen AUD and cad have been the stars this week.........but still mainly only 100 pips up for the week

sellers are the CHF and GBP at 100 pips south of sunday night opens ...GBP came off 200 pips from carneys statement Thursday so I had been doing very well till then :(

so pretty tight overall.........

have a good day ........will hopefully get more time to trade later in august .......

N
 
project13et said:
{quote} Hello, I am following the thread for some time, first of all congratulation for you're trading, you develop this spaghetti" very long time ago, is very easy to read the whole market on one screen. I have one questions that I think is important for peoples with less experience , how you can filter the late trades ? Of course at you're experience is very easy to filter that because you know how market move, and you know when they can work and why not based on previous move, but how we should filter them, more technical so we know when a trade is a bit late and not worth it anymore the risk. Many Thanks,
Click to expand...


yes spaghetti is one way of looking at it .............but then again its petty clear and simple compared to most traders charts/indicators That I know ! :)

can you explain to me a little more what you are saying / asking ? ...........

I think I know what you mean but want an example...........

thanks

Neil
 
morning all ...........ive managed to fit in an hours scalping but will soon be stepping away

will not be trading much this week again due to my consultancy commitments

overnights
usual low level warmups into week.........gbp looks bull , and euro , sells were NZD and AUD.........yen , Usd are bear

6am London

sloooow action .......... LOT OF CONSOIDTION SO FAR FROM ASIAN SESSION ON THE G8 .........so you can either chase the retraces or wait for continuation of Asian trends

EA and EU sells have fitted the bill for retrace plays ...........ucad buys in last 15 mins as well ........but peanuts so far

have a good day .........it will fire up in next hour or so i'm sure but I will be long gone :)

N
 
project13et said:
{quote} For example the GBP drop a lot in this picture, of course you will not always have the perfect momentum to catch it since the begin. Special because in this picture there wasn't a second currency to gain that much strength so it's more a single move not a double one. The bounce lines 114 , -132 are draw after the currency hit that level and start to bounce up from there. How we would know from all that drop that the momentum is already late and trade it will be at a high risk of reversal ? Thanks, {image}
Click to expand...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1990350&d=1470597197

Hi there .............YES - momentum trading is a strategy you can use for trading strengthmeters (especially MA based strengthmeters) but like anything it has to be used strictly in right place and right time .......the GBP selloffs were big and clearly the market was waiting for the news ............so in fact it was a news event strategy ..........again this is a specialised form of trading and requires certain skills and plenty of risk...........something I tend to avoid when scalping .............

there are plenty of ways to make money in markets without stepping into the furnace of news events gambling ..........

and I have to disagree with your comment highlighted above ................on a 200+ pip fall EVERY other currency will probably come off at least 20-30 pips minimum ............remember strengthmeter trading is a ZERO SUM game ...........so the 200 pips has to go somewhere :smart:;)

N
 
ok the EA offered some very minor resells......GU looking good on bear side now ..........buying UJ...............will see what 7.30 bar does then gotta scoot .......
 
NVP said:
gu the sell...............
Click to expand...

ok .....usd and yen staying bull into 7.30 post events...........will play out what I have ...

UCAd buys still going ok as well as GU sells


have a good day
N
 
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