I did direct the question to you Neil first :whistling
Hi Mike
you are absolutely right and an apology and explanation is still owed :-
The Carry trade is pretty well known and documented now and that is where I hung my hat regarding the origins of this strategy
In times of Greed the Global equity markets were fueled by Traders borrowing from the cheaper and lower yielding Currencies to fund their leveraged positions taken....
(SELL)
Yen
USD
CHF
and in times of Consolidation and "fear" the Traders would Exit both these Equity and currency positions reversing the moves (BUY)..also the USD is the worlds global anchor currency and is in 80% of all daily pair transactions I read somewhere
People do believe in its underlying strength and endurance so it is usually where people will flee to in times of crisis which can seem contrary to the other comments here.........but no one ever said that world and its markets are a logical place !
over time and Q/E and other Government games (CHF peg) we have seen the position become much more muddled and not as clear as it used to be ..
I just happened to hang onto the Equity/Currency principle here....but have now adapted the rules a little to reflect the changing climate of currency dynamics and not to just wait for the triple alignment of DOW/USD/YEN anymore
So I still use the Dow to "steer" buying / selling the Yen or USD ...with an overide that if the USD and Yen are the same side forget what the dow is doing and trade the dynamic duo
as when these 2 currencies are on the same side there are (by simple math) opportunities to buy the opposing currencies for some profit ......and if Dow is diverging in the opposite direction to the Yen and USD thats a bonus !
Markets change and systems must do as well.......:smart:
N