Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

nice nice afternoon


N

 

[NVP]

overnights........

 

[NVP]

Was late on watch as usual today, so missed the best trades so far. I'll post price charts of €/$, £/$, and also €/£, as there was a bit of an opportunity there today. Times on charts are GMT+1. Times in [square brackets] are GMT in the text.

1. EUR/USD - with hindsight, and if you were prepared to trade overnight, that looks like a pretty obvious SELL doesn't it. Still worth getting in a bit later, but by 10;15[09:15] it was already starting to get messy, and (IMHO) didn't improve much.

2. GBP/USD At least the move here started at a more civilised hour for UK-ers, and was going well until about 10:15[09:15] when it goes a bit choppy. You could probably have done things if you'd been nimble, but perhaps a bit risky.

3. EUR/GBP Now that's a much smoother ride down, although even if you'd got the whole move (to date), I think it's only about 40 pips, so not quite as good as it looks, but I wouldn't turn it down.

EDIT: I probably said "much smoother", because I only looked at this chart in hindsight, so I kind of excused the spike above the slower MA as though it was certain to come down again. That's the problem with hindsight trading. If you had been trading this in real time, that part anyway would not have looked smooth!
IF you had stayed in, true would would have got, probably an extra 18 pips. But if you'd got out, you might have re-entered, but I'm not sure the strength readings at that point were supportive.

When I took those snapshots, I didn't think EUR/USD had any further down to go, as it seemed to be consolidating, but it has edged a bit further. The situation now seems rather unclear. I think we may just bump along for a bit until some catalyst comes along.

EDIT2: oops, looking again at the live EUR/GBP chart, I see that the rate of fall increased, and it's looking like it was a good short. ...looking on EUR/USD ....no not the same there ... looking at strength ...!!! GBP has gone stratospheric! Did someone walk over Mervyn's grave ... ???

hey M

just summarise for everyone what you are using on the screens when you post :smart:

N

 

[NVP]

selling E/U is looming...........

 

[NVP]

10 pips up and E/U falling now............

 

[NVP]

commdolls might spoil this.......naff off guys

 

[NVP]

damn you kiwi..............you just stole 10 pips off my Euro sell

go to bed dammit

N

 

[NVP]

E / G divergence.......hmmmm

 

[NVP]

dont overstay your welcome on those g6 sells......

 

[NVP]

actually as I hoped the E/U is staying the course......keep going Euro


europeans generally looking weaker again........good

 

[NVP]

dow is still northerly though so staying tight on my ride.....

 

[NVP]

tell me you all bagged the GBP......

 

[NVP]

and E/U sell is still getting love due to usd rise..............touchdown ?

 

[NVP]

hey gang

Never confuse my light and breesy approach to this stuff with a lack of brevity or respect for my chosen subject ...........

I could sit here with high brow qualifications and miles and miles of (fitted) backtesting and formulas telling you this is very complicated and you are all not worthy to see it

(in fact some people do - but lets not go there)......I hate this kind of B*llsh*t we see in all walks of life and business........its so wasteful and inefficient in getting get things achieved

I break it down to some simple rules and show you how they work........

thats it - no bells no whistles just plain evidence day in day out

and I'm always always here to chew the cud on Strengthmeters and correlation ..thats how I learn and get better !!!

N

 

[NVP]

usd is still going at the line.....gogogogogog

 

[NVP]

nearly there.....dows south and assisting again

 

[NVP]

tighten up as tag team are gonna turn south.......look for strong g6's now in starting gate

 

[NVP]

my water tells me its the gbp thats gonna flyyyyyyyyyyy

 

[NVP]

looks like this dow rise is gonna hold.................

commdolls are in the buy seat at moment

N

 

[NVP]

if it fakes us back the euro looks a prime sell......