Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

looks like the correlation is a little screwed currently...if dow breaks north now the tag will fold even more

N

 

[NVP]

e/U looks interesting now........nice dow rise with tag falling

 

[NVP]

Follow the rules nvp

no pure trade signals

 

[NVP]

Euro buy into tag is just awaiting the usd to go south on the 20ma corrie

 

[NVP]

Euro has climbed above oversold area as well so i like that

 

[NVP]

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED ON THE T2W SITE ?

WHATEVER

HERES ME WATCHING PAINT DRY EARLIER

JEES
N

 

[NVP]

settled down nicely since nfp's

my moaning in the videos can stop now as correlation resumed

and touchdowns everywhere......but the important ones are the europeans as thats selling into a rising tag and scoring pips



N

 

[NVP]

the chf and gbp are still piling south.......gbp could touchown soon

N

 

[NVP]

second live video earlier today..............

have you ever invited everyone to A BIG PARTY AND NO-ONE TURNED UP ?

HAHAHAHA
N

 

[NVP]

this next ones better..............shame my system locks at the end......but what do you want for free ?

N

 

[pbylina]

heres the week viewed on a 500ma delta 1 setting........

I use this version to set key S & R levels, overbought/oversold and price action confirmation (HH/HL or LL/LH on a currency)..........5 mins here but works on any TF

the arrow settings now tell you exactly whats happening in trend terms on the 5mins

N

Monday was the best... Long Gbp/Usd, +100 pips.

 

[pbylina]

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED ON THE T2W SITE ?

WHATEVER

HERES ME WATCHING PAINT DRY EARLIER

JEES
N

Lol. 2001?

 

[NVP]

but still no live trades as I was already out.....

 

[montmorencyt2w]

At least it sounds like he's a solid guy and no mega robot android pip slayers are on offer

Yes, I don't think he's a hard-sell merchant. More a workaday analyst geek-wonk. True he plugs his seminars/webinars when they come up but it's not that often. He's not like some of the gurus and pseurus that we have all seen. I looked again at some of the negative reviews of his book on amazon.com and .co.uk today. One of the negative reviewers had also reviewed another book by someone else on bonds and interest rates that he thought would be of interest to FX traders. Looks quite good. Might get it to compare and contrast.

To balance AL's geeky side, he is also a football nut. There is a funny short video of him on YouTube playing "keepy-uppy" Aha, found it:

 

[montmorencyt2w]

but still no live trades as I was already out.....

Interesting Neil. I was definitely not attempting to trade today, but was observing on and off, most of the day. For now I'm ignoring the Commdolls and Swissie, and concentrating on the pound, dollar, euro and yen. (I'm not going to let you have all the naming fun, so they are my "Fab Four" ). True the poor old pound is not really very Fab, but it can make a great trade on occasions. These are the only ones I would plan to trade at the moment, and mostly EUR/USD and GBP/USD really. Perhaps a shame to deliberately miss out on the commodity excitement but you can't have everything (and I'm getting too old for excitement). I thought I noticed some significant USD - JPY divergence on occasions today. I wonder if that was some effect of NFP. I suppose they have to diverge sometimes or no one would ever trade USD/JPY. I wonder if a good play is to play the convergence after a divergence? A sort of reversion to the mean. I know that doesn't follow the rules of the trading plan you illustrate here, but perhaps it's something for those who want to experiment a bit.


I am aiming to get in touch some time over the weekend with some notes on my observations today, if you'll have time to look at them.

Cheers,
Mike

 

[NVP]

Interesting Neil. I was definitely not attempting to trade today, but was observing on and off, most of the day. For now I'm ignoring the Commdolls and Swissie, and concentrating on the pound, dollar, euro and yen. (I'm not going to let you have all the naming fun, so they are my "Fab Four" ). True the poor old pound is not really very Fab, but it can make a great trade on occasions. These are the only ones I would plan to trade at the moment, and mostly EUR/USD and GBP/USD really. Perhaps a shame to deliberately miss out on the commodity excitement but you can't have everything (and I'm getting too old for excitement). I thought I noticed some significant USD - JPY divergence on occasions today. I wonder if that was some effect of NFP. I suppose they have to diverge sometimes or no one would ever trade USD/JPY. I wonder if a good play is to play the convergence after a divergence? A sort of reversion to the mean. I know that doesn't follow the rules of the trading plan you illustrate here, but perhaps it's something for those who want to experiment a bit.


I am aiming to get in touch some time over the weekend with some notes on my observations today, if you'll have time to look at them.

Cheers,
Mike

hey M

If you handed me 4 currencies to trade / follow using my approach it would be the Fantasic 4 as you advocate...........the 5th would be either the CHF or the AussieD with the NZD and CAD remaining firmly on the Bench

contact me and i'd be happy to chew the cud......trying to call currencies is tiring and foolish at times and I need a little HELP at times.....

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

anyone follow these guys ?............suddenly i'm receiving newsletters like a long lost pal......funny as they were very disinterested in me a few years back when they launched.............I guess the truckloads of money being made by the traders in those days (that prevented them talking to mere mortals like me) has rescinded into the murkey world of marketing and sales revenue :whistling

Buy the Euro since the start of 2011 ?........what an original idea - we all missed that........

3 grand is a lot of money for a keltner band system and a few bells and whistles.......and the settings were never that difficult to decode :whistling

and even stuff like this looks like a good place to start building your own customised trendsignal.....just get comfortable with using a decent MA for your exits (like perhaps the 7ma crossover on the real time bar)and a standard stoploss as backup.......

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=89714

Dont getme wrong here.......There is nothing wrong with plenty of training and participation to learn what suits you as a trader (apart usually from the price )

but then stop being a sheep ...........make your own decisions,do yuor own research and follow your own unique path in trading ........theres no other way to the top

N

 

[NVP]

heres that 4 corrie all setup

I have to say that this version of the corrie indicator created a while back by djenky is a peach


http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...g-basic-ideas-strategies-529.html#post1277658

I can view some basic ma's in the top left and also view price action on a 500/1 setting in the main chart

all it doesnt do is make coffee

N

 

[NVP]

Re: Gold/Oil Ratio - Ashraf's take

Well, in his favour, the book lays out a fairly complete history of the relevant events, with charts, basically from around Bretton Woods to ~2008. I suppose you could say that his explanation for the observed events is only one hypothesis, but some of the graphs at least are quite striking, i.e. in highlighting correlations, or at least, associations.


Something I hadn't noticed on previous readings that I only just noticed was corporate bond yield spreads (spreads between high-yield corporate bonds and US bonds of the same maturity.) It is apparently one of the indicators of risk aversion and correlates well with the VIX. i.e. when conditions are growing uncertain, and there is more risk of the bond defaulting, then the yield has to go up to compensate.



One of Ashraf's more impressive calls was the long fall of the euro in 2010, which he first talked about (I think) in 2009, and repeated consistently, before anyone else that I happened to notice. I seem to remember this was partly based on yield spreads, and partly on Commitments Of Traders, and probably a few other things, and he usually threw in a few technical indicators. Anyway, I made money on that. Unfortunately, at least as far as I could see, he didn't predict the turnaround half-way through the year, and once it had happened and was obvious to all, he didn't offer any explanation that I noticed. I was a bit disappointed about that (the lack of explanation). Some of his gold calls were also a bit mixed. He's definitely not infallible. But as I always say to people about him: the calls aren't important really. What's important are the reasons he gives. If you agree with this analysis, fine. If you can see flaws in his analysis or are aware of factors that he hasn't taken into account, then you make your judgement accordingly. The other important thing is that he can make you consider things that you might not otherwise have thought of, left to yourself. Anyway, I think a period of silence on my part would be most welcome especially on this subject.

hey M /all

This is a nice simple take on yield curves..........personally I would have run the usd index against a US vs global average yield (and not just the Eurozone) but thats being picky :smart:

N

http://www.screencast.com/users/bsw...ts/media/b5911313-595a-497d-bea3-05c552674d4a

 

[NVP]

heres the Week...............pants thursday/Friday if you followed the strict rules

and by pants i didnt mean we lost money - I just meant we didnt trade much :smart:

And this game is not about making money.....its about NOT losing money
(subtle difference)

N