Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

Hadn't thought of a "Goldmeter"! Nice idea though.

Ashraf sometimes tells people to look at the various currencies they are interested in, in terms of gold, to get an idea of their "true Value", rather than just relative to each other. I guess it's another form of strength meter.

From the other side, he also looks at the price of gold in currencies other than USD (Euro and GBP for example), which I know you do too, from some of your earlier posts.


Anyway, I was going to ask you Neil, if you don't mind, do you still consider yourself a scalper, or are you taking any longer term trades these days (using FXCorrelator, that is)?

I've given myself a self-denying ordinance to stick to short-term for the time being (I used to always aim for the long-term trades). This is as much a money-management and stress-reduction issue for me as anything. (I came to realise that overnight trades were a stress factor for me; which probably should have been self-evident beforehand). I'd hoped maybe to gravitate back to longer-term trades later on, but I'm keeping an open mind.

Also, you said at one point that you never trade JPY. Is that because it is so closely correlated with USD that there would be little point? From casual observation of your FXcorrie snapshots, I've never seen it when they weren't correlated, although presumably it does happen from time to time. Last year I was sometimes seeing some good moves on EUR/JPY and made some good trades. (Spread was a fairly reasonable 2 on Tradefair at the time; not as good as 1 on EUR/USD admittedly). But I wasn't using a strength meter then, so I guess I wasn't always able to see that I might as well have just stuck to EUR/USD. It's possible that I was letting what I thought was the message of the "Fuzzymentals"(TM*) get in the way of the obvious price action.


Similarly, there seems little point in trading USD/JPY, although I was doing last year, and with rather frustrating results. EUR/GBP I also found fairly frustrating, and I almost never would trade it now. I have theories about why it is usually a pointless trade, but that's for another time.



*["Fuzzymentals" - a word I've just made up to include Fundamentals, Sentiment, Bias, News, views of ppl like Ashraf, gut feeling, experience and whatever else goes into the mix that is not of a technical nature]
 
A memory came back to me out of the blue that that guy you've mentioned a few times Neil, and whom I won't mention (you know why) has a mantra: "Currency pairs don't trend - currencies trend". Actually, I don't (yet) know for sure if this is true, but it always sounds very plausible. You have plenty of experience in this area by now and so probably know the answer as well as anyone.


Another thing: I've noticed in the last week or so is that 2 or 3 members of Ashraf Laidi's forum are using currency strength meters. Now, I never noticed this before, and I was reading it every trading day in 2010 until end-July, and part of 2009. The change must have occurred during my "sabbatical" (end-July-December more or less). I've been searching the forum to try to find when they were first mentioned. (It's a tiny forum compared with T2W, and there are only small small number of active members). The person who has mentioned it most also uses some secret modelling system which I haven't got a clue about - he makes it sounds like a bit of a holy grail, and I guess he is using the CSM as a confirming signal, rather than as a primary signal, although I think he has taken the odd trade on the meter chart alone.
 
overnights.....not bad.....
 

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I've found an interesting site. They are offering methods that use no indicator or ea, yet you can earn 50-100 pips daily. I have just downloaded it and testing it. I made around 78 pips in 2 days. Site is 3aces4fx.com

thats just great ........lets all use it and get rich today.....(y)
 
Can you explain what the delta setting is?

hey P

a great question my friend and one few people ask !

The delta in simple terms is the ma value you are using as a crossover line to the
main Ma setting (that we all understand more)

so a 20ma delta 1 is actually the 1ma crossover signals on the 20ma

so a 20ma delta 3 setting is the 3ma crossovers to the 20ma etc etc

feel free to experiment with it as it is very useful if you trade ma crossovers (y)

hope that helps:smart:
N
 
Hadn't thought of a "Goldmeter"! Nice idea though.

Ashraf sometimes tells people to look at the various currencies they are interested in, in terms of gold, to get an idea of their "true Value", rather than just relative to each other. I guess it's another form of strength meter.

From the other side, he also looks at the price of gold in currencies other than USD (Euro and GBP for example), which I know you do too, from some of your earlier posts.


Anyway, I was going to ask you Neil, if you don't mind, do you still consider yourself a scalper, or are you taking any longer term trades these days (using FXCorrelator, that is)?

I've given myself a self-denying ordinance to stick to short-term for the time being (I used to always aim for the long-term trades). This is as much a money-management and stress-reduction issue for me as anything. (I came to realise that overnight trades were a stress factor for me; which probably should have been self-evident beforehand). I'd hoped maybe to gravitate back to longer-term trades later on, but I'm keeping an open mind.

Also, you said at one point that you never trade JPY. Is that because it is so closely correlated with USD that there would be little point? From casual observation of your FXcorrie snapshots, I've never seen it when they weren't correlated, although presumably it does happen from time to time. Last year I was sometimes seeing some good moves on EUR/JPY and made some good trades. (Spread was a fairly reasonable 2 on Tradefair at the time; not as good as 1 on EUR/USD admittedly). But I wasn't using a strength meter then, so I guess I wasn't always able to see that I might as well have just stuck to EUR/USD. It's possible that I was letting what I thought was the message of the "Fuzzymentals"(TM*) get in the way of the obvious price action.


Similarly, there seems little point in trading USD/JPY, although I was doing last year, and with rather frustrating results. EUR/GBP I also found fairly frustrating, and I almost never would trade it now. I have theories about why it is usually a pointless trade, but that's for another time.



*["Fuzzymentals" - a word I've just made up to include Fundamentals, Sentiment, Bias, News, views of ppl like Ashraf, gut feeling, experience and whatever else goes into the mix that is not of a technical nature]

hey M

Fuzzymentals is a superb deffinition of the whole melting pot of trading information..........i love it and will use it shamelessly now :p

as spreads fall (lovinnn this zero spread ploy out there) the J becomes a decent proposition on short term trading

and in truth given the higher propensity for jpy to correlate negatively to the dow than the greenback , I should reach for the E/J button more than the E/U button when the bells ring (infact all Usd's should be replaced by the J in the pair)

but the usd is the daddy so I dont......and the jpy can really whip on its wicked volatility of course ......up there with the GBP most days

trading U/J is actually quite tempting at times........in theory the JPY being more volatile and aggressive to dow moves should continually criss-cross and accelerate past the usd based on the dows direction providing trading opportunities

BUT...it doesnt seem to work like that these days so I dont fuss much

my own trading has reduced to near zero given work committments............if i trade I trade the 5 min charts as for me the Fuzzymenals of longer term trading mean toooo many variables that will affect the performance

N
 
A memory came back to me out of the blue that that guy you've mentioned a few times Neil, and whom I won't mention (you know why) has a mantra: "Currency pairs don't trend - currencies trend". Actually, I don't (yet) know for sure if this is true, but it always sounds very plausible. You have plenty of experience in this area by now and so probably know the answer as well as anyone.

Actually Currency pairs do what they want when they want and so do individual currencies :p

personally the only reason I advocate and love Strengthmeters is to identify and isolate individual currency behavious and therefore split the standard pairchart into its 2 consituent currencies.......breaking things down into smaller pieces always yelds interesting ideas and results :smart:

if i see the euro trending heavily north and the usd doing the opposite.... in all open honesty that train has gone.......I only need one currency pumping to like the move and get in earlier (alongside correlation)


Another thing: I've noticed in the last week or so is that 2 or 3 members of Ashraf Laidi's forum are using currency strength meters. Now, I never noticed this before, and I was reading it every trading day in 2010 until end-July, and part of 2009. The change must have occurred during my "sabbatical" (end-July-December more or less). I've been searching the forum to try to find when they were first mentioned. (It's a tiny forum compared with T2W, and there are only small small number of active members). The person who has mentioned it most also uses some secret modelling system which I haven't got a clue about - he makes it sounds like a bit of a holy grail, and I guess he is using the CSM as a confirming signal, rather than as a primary signal, although I think he has taken the odd trade on the meter chart alone.

all strengthmeters are evolved from the same origins ...you cant really do much diferent apart from the individual settings and combinations etc etc

thats why the corrie is free as i would have been a charlatan to try to sell such a freely offered product (although I did update and change the correlation to G8 basket as opposed to a G7 USD basket - which is pretty fundamental).....now the customised settings are a different thing !!

where the site again mike ?


hey mate see above.........
 
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hey dudes make your mind up :cool:
 

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its back on the higher 1h timeframe as well......:smart:
 

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and the 4 hourlys.....
 

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and the dailys.................:sleep: (enough now NVP)

see how the rules apply pretty much on any timeframe ?

just depends if you have the patience for longer timeframe trading

Me - i get bored very easily and sometimes even when i'm writing a post i will s

:p
N
 

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A/U buy is tempting...........and selling USDCAD as well...............although I prefer to stick to the European pairs during this session

N
 
and the Euro is the only G6 offering a serious contrarian trade selling into usd at the moment if dow tanks now

N
 
really frustrating................

good good good correlations but the damn CAD , AUD or GBP wont rise and take the bait
 
although GBP is in the overbought Zone ive explained in the last few days so i should disgard it
 
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