Thanks Neil, he seems like a genuine bloke with an interesting site.
I like this article
http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/Articles-Psychology/trading-psychology-from-a-9-year-old.html in particular. No matter how puffed up & egotistical traders become, there's a huge amount of luck involved in success or failure. Last night's spike (and yesterday afternoon's moves) are like miniature Black Swans. No amount of expertise forewarns you about them happening, and they're even tough to explain after the event.
Risk exposure & money management are far more important than our ability (real or imagined) to predict the markets.
totally agree..
trading has luck attached to it as we do use (hopefully :whistling) high probability scenarios where we are gambling on a pattern to continue or reverse based on historic data we have observed.
so as GMP says arm yourselves with your wits and experience, money management and a damn good system to ensure you trade when the conditions are in your favour......
I also call market behavior
"semirandomness" or even
"predictable unpredictablility" .....(although not after a couple of beers
)
having grown up in a very Gambling orientated family of Bookmakers I am totally comfortable labelling my trading calls as gambling.....although there are many traders that probably deem themselves above your average punter in the high street Bookies...
Ive met a lot of professional gamblers in my life and believe me the good ones eliminate as much chance/luck as possible from the chosen outcome....but you can only control so much and then its down to lady luck and circumstance.
Also the playing field of choice is ultra important as its key to optimising the odds in your favour....
why play the roulette wheel when poker or blackjack has better odds to return your money ?
why bet on a Handicap race with 18 glue factory candidates when theres a lovely 2 year old in a maiden stakes race with just 8 horses running ?
why play any sport bet or engineered gambling site when the Forex market is pure and (relatively) "unfixable"
(even Japanese/Swiss Bank intervention can be factored into the pot relatively painlessly)
Why trade the US Equity markets when you understand and appreciate the nuances more of the G8 forex market and trade in a nice timezone ?......etc etc
Why trade the cr*p games on Betfair when their Baccarat site was paying out thousands to people who new what they were doing on particular computer dealt hands (they closed that option down recently -
DOH !)
Still - a punt is a punt so lets not get pedantic here.....but like the great
golfer Gary Player always says ...
the more I practice - the luckier i get !
later....
N
