Concept FX

[SandyW]

Yes it is a trade but I am stll well down as I entered on the Concept price of 19375 so still 120/5 points down

I hope to increase my stop loss later and reset it higher than 19225 and then take it from there

This is all hopefully of course

We're all learning, not least me.

My view is that once a Concept trade closes either in profit or loss, it is HISTORY. No further trading should be done in connection with it.

That is not to say that it is unreasonable to trade the pair, but if you do it must be with a whole new set of parameters. Concept was banking on a reversal. It didn't happen. The pair was actually in a well established down trend. That made the trade risky from the start, even with Concept. Reversal trades are inherently more risky than trades which assume continuation of a trend. "The trend is your friend". As I mentioned earlier, the GBPUSD pair broke through support. Support becomes resistance in this situation. So to think of a possible profitable reversal in this situation as a high probability trade is now plain wrong. Of course it may work out, but it is a gamble not a trade.

As it happens I now have a new long on the USDCHF. The Concept trade on this pair stopped out yesterday. This is because it is in a long trend up, and has broken out of resistance. With hindsight Concept would have done better to have recognised the trend when it started way back. And of course I have got into the trend late, so my scope for profit is limited. Perhaps I should have waited for a whole new trend to start. Who knows, you may win and I may lose, but I think my loss will be legit and your win illegit!!! Fun eh?

Trade what you see, not what you hope. Not easy.

 

[SandyW]

Heikin-Ashi Candlestick Charts

If any of you have a charting package which offers Heikin-Ashi candlestick charts, have a look. They make the trend so vividly clear. You would think they are therefore easy to trade, but they are as difficult as Moving Averages because of the risk of whipsaw. But they do show trends, and there is value in that alone. I always use them in preference to other charts.

 

[tonypex]

concept fx

We're all learning, not least me.

My view is that once a Concept trade closes either in profit or loss, it is HISTORY. No further trading should be done in connection with it.

That is not to say that it is unreasonable to trade the pair, but if you do it must be with a whole new set of parameters. Concept was banking on a reversal. It didn't happen. The pair was actually in a well established down trend. That made the trade risky from the start, even with Concept. Reversal trades are inherently more risky than trades which assume continuation of a trend. "The trend is your friend". As I mentioned earlier, the GBPUSD pair broke through support. Support becomes resistance in this situation. So to think of a possible profitable reversal in this situation as a high probability trade is now plain wrong. Of course it may work out, but it is a gamble not a trade.

As it happens I now have a new long on the USDCHF. The Concept trade on this pair stopped out yesterday. This is because it is in a long trend up, and has broken out of resistance. With hindsight Concept would have done better to have recognised the trend when it started way back. And of course I have got into the trend late, so my scope for profit is limited. Perhaps I should have waited for a whole new trend to start. Who knows, you may win and I may lose, but I think my loss will be legit and your win illegit!!! Fun eh?

Trade what you see, not what you hope. Not easy.

Hi Sandy,
Im new to T2W and considering Concept fx - I must agree with you once you have traded that's it - but surely concept is all about accepting it's forecasts and going with it - win or lose!
Or I am wrong.................... are you guys tweaking it?
Would appreciate any feedback.

 

[jason0181]

Tonypex

Yes the concept method is going with the trade, but what happened on this pair, and what Sandy is trying to say is that it did not work. We are not tweaking it, just trying to understand the trades once they have ended.

I would not move any stop loss to try and get the trade to work, as it will not work, and will lose you money.

The level of support that the GBPUSD pair had, was strong for 18 months, but has now been broken for whatever reason, so we need to look that it will go down further. I would wait and see what happens, do not try and force a trade, unless you are a very experienced day trader. If we were, we would not be using concept.

 

[masif1]

Ok I got stopped out

you were right Sandy. :innocent:

Can anyone advise what's going on today that would have affected the currencies in the way they have today (I know the olympics had started today).

also if we were still in the USD/CHF trade and had not set an objective AND the EUR/JPY had triggered - we would have been laughing all the way to the bank!!!

there were two members on this forum who were short on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and long on USD/CHF yesterday, how are you doing, or have you retired already with the profit?

Yes it is a trade but I am stll well down as I entered on the Concept price of 19375 so still 120/5 points down

I hope to increase my stop loss later and reset it higher than 19225 and then take it from there

This is all hopefully of course

 

[tonypex]

Sandy,
Thanks that what I hoped you would say - I probably came in late on the thread.
Would you recommend concept fx and has it lived up to your expectations?
Tony

 

[SandyW]

Hi Sandy,
Im new to T2W and considering Concept fx - I must agree with you once you have traded that's it - but surely concept is all about accepting it's forecasts and going with it - win or lose!
Or I am wrong.................... are you guys tweaking it?
Would appreciate any feedback.

Hi Tony,

Most of us on here are trying to use Concept-FX as it is out of the box. We do not have the skills to tweak it. If we did we probably wouldn't have bought in in the first place.

We are inevitably curious though, and like to try learning about trading, not just blindly following instructions for a few minutes a day. In my opinion one of the great benefits of using a system like this is that it enables you to practice strict money mangement and learn the value of discipline. So the best idea as regards trading with it is to just discipline your self into following the system.

Any trades we do outwith the strict Concept system are better thought of independantly, but sometimes it is difficult to resist trying to somehow replay or even rework the Concept trades.

Having said all that, there is freedom to tweak the system, by adjusting entry levels, closing, stoplosses etc. Or even to dodge out of trades you feel are "wrong uns". The vendors do advocate that people who know what they are doing could well tweak the system successfully, and they recognise that no system is perfect, not even theirs.
But you cannot get inside the bonnet and put in a new chip as it were. You are only in control of the throttle and the brake.

 

[jason0181]

Masif1

Hopefully you have learnt one very big lesson, only ever move you stop loss in one direction. Never make it bigger, as you will get burnt. It may have worked on the last concept trade, but we all took profit. When things start to go down, they often keep going.

I dont think we can blame the markets on the olympics. I dont often look too much into fundamentals, but there must be something going on in the US to make the $ so strong. Oil has dropped, RBS has announced huge losses, and barclays are doing the same. Small ripples tend to get bigger. With the US markets now coming on board, I think it would be wise to watch over the weekend and start afresh on Monday.

 

[SandyW]

Sandy,
Thanks that what I hoped you would say - I probably came in late on the thread.
Would you recommend concept fx and has it lived up to your expectations?
Tony

Tony,

Expectations? The system is easy and quick to use, so that expectation has been fulfilled.

But you will be thinking profit! That is a difficult one, because you do have to take a long view, and I have only been using the system for 5 weeks. As it happens I am marginally in profit after 8 trades. I could as easily be marginally or quite substantially in loss for the time being, or have doubled my money. One absolutely has to be prepared for the possibily, likelihood even, of drawdowns on capital. Ask me again this time next year!

I do believe the published results have integrity, but the past is no guide to the future, and this time next year you will still only be able to ask me about the past! Personally I feel reasonably confident that my expectations will be satified. Otherwise I would not have spent the money.

One expectation I didn't have was that Concept would be a learning tool, and that has become a pleasant add-on benefit as far as I am concerned. You know probably that even trading a black box system produces psychologoical stresses and strains, which one has to learn to manage!

 

[tonypex]

Hi Tony,

Most of us on here are trying to use Concept-FX as it is out of the box. We do not have the skills to tweak it. If we did we probably wouldn't have bought in in the first place.

We are inevitably curious though, and like to try learning about trading, not just blindly following instructions for a few minutes a day. In my opinion one of the great benefits of using a system like this is that it enables you to practice strict money mangement and learn the value of discipline. So the best idea as regards trading with it is to just discipline your self into following the system.

Any trades we do outwith the strict Concept system are better thought of independantly, but sometimes it is difficult to resist trying to somehow replay or even rework the Concept trades.

Having said all that, there is freedom to tweak the system, by adjusting entry levels, closing, stoplosses etc. Or even to dodge out of trades you feel are "wrong uns". The vendors do advocate that people who know what they are doing could well tweak the system successfully, and they recognise that no system is perfect, not even theirs.
But you cannot get inside the bonnet and put in a new chip as it were. You are only in control of the throttle and the brake.

Thanks Sandy that was extremely helpful and I do understand what you are saying and naturally wanting to get a bigger handle on the program in the hope of understanding it better.

Can I take it then that you are happy with Concept FX and would buy again?

Tony

 

[SandyW]

Thanks Sandy that was extremely helpful and I do understand what you are saying and naturally wanting to get a bigger handle on the program in the hope of understanding it better.

Can I take it then that you are happy with Concept FX and would buy again?

Tony

Tony,

Yes, happy. No regrets. Would do it again. But I am still alert to the possibilities of other systems. Call me a "system tart" !!!!!!

 

[anddy26]

Hi Masif..i picked up 81 and 83 pips on eurusd gbpusd and 230 on eurjpy...But because of my slight error in my stop loss being too bi..i gave it all back..damn........im not too bothere about it..yup its nice to win..but if you check back the results end of feb begining or march. they had 8 trades and 6 were losers..dents your confidence a bit but it does show the results are accurate..

 

[jason0181]

Sandy

You are a systems tart.

I have enjoyed using concept, and will keep using it. It has wet my appetite for more trading, and an embarking on more study and reading.

 

[tonypex]

Tony,

Yes, happy. No regrets. Would do it again. But I am still alert to the possibilities of other systems. Call me a "system tart" !!!!!!

Yes sandy I suppose I am.

I am using two other betting systems at the moment one is Elm Trader like you 5 weeks in - it bets monthly - first month 18% profit.

The other is Simplex - a Football betting system - Brilliant results on first year - if anyone is interested I am happy to share info.

 

[SandyW]

Sandy

You are a systems tart.

I have enjoyed using concept, and will keep using it. It has wet my appetite for more trading, and an embarking on more study and reading.

Hi Jason!

I can say things likes that, not you!

There are many systems, not only "electronic" systems, and you too are pursuing new system pastures having had your appetite whetted! To do otherwise would be very blinkered. None of us can afford to put ourselves totally in the hands of one black box.

 

[jason0181]

Sandy

It is true that we are all looking for new systems, so could all be classed in the 'tarts' catagory. It would be so nice if we could just look at a chart and pick the entry and exit points, but that will never happen.

We all agree that the concept system works for us and EOD trading, and all new systems will take that brave person to take the step and see how it works, and the profits or loss that comes with them.

One good thing that this thead has brought out, is that everyone is open minded and willing to try new things, and help out newbies. I will be reading more about your new systems, and will be the first the applaud you if you take the plunge with any

I have been looking at some others recently out of curiosity, but there are just so many.

Have you looked at Trading Systems, Backtesting, Technical Analysis, Indicators

I may try downloading it on a trial and seeing what setups can be had, and backtest some simple systems.

Jason

 

[jason0181]

What is interesting for all the people moving stop losses on GBPUSD, or expecting it to go up is that Concept have not gone back in that pair with a BUY or SELL.

I have not seen any pair instantly go back into another concept trade straight after a failure, but am sure if the setup was correct it may happen.

The market needs some time to settle, so that whatever TA they use, can get an edge before entering a trade.

Maybe this is a buit in feature that takes some 'emotion' out of the system, and lets us all breathe and get ready for another pair.

 

[SandyW]

Other Systems

Yes sandy I suppose I am.

I am using two other betting systems at the moment one is Elm Trader like you 5 weeks in - it bets monthly - first month 18% profit.

The other is Simplex - a Football betting system - Brilliant results on first year - if anyone is interested I am happy to share info.

Tony,

Thanks for the suggestions! I have had an initial browse and will certainly be exploring the possibilities. Whatever I get into, it must have a high probability of success!!!

In the past I have not got into binary betting, because although their is a probability of regular small profits the few losses are big, and frighten me! It is a different methodology obviously, but it appears to be the opposite of normal trading, in which one expects regular small losses and relies on the fewer big profit trades to bring success! The dramatically high ratio of wins to losses in binary betting, is strongly offset by the small average size of wins relative to the large size of losses.

I believe the spread betting companies are not too keen on people using effective systems. They tolerate it I think, so as not to frighten too many clients away. Most of their clients, and maybe their best clients, are actually losers (in the trading sense). It is their right to refuse to do business with someone who is costing them too much, or who is, as they like to put it, "abusing" their account. Just as bookies do. Maybe I am paranoid (OK I am), but I suspect they are looking for trading patterns that might reveal a flood of "system" type trades which "abuse" their service. That is one thing that worries me about using a successful and widely marketted "black box".

The Concept people claim to have a good relationship with IG Index, and actually try to put business their way, but I am not sure if IG Index recommend Concept to their clients!!! I wonder, are Concept just trying to keep IG Index sweet, so that customers don't get banned?

So what, I wonder, do other betting companies think of clients who have a "96% success rate", and so on ?! And do they dread the success of their clients?

If anyone on here thinks I have got the wrong end of the stick in this matter, I would really like them to take me aside and put me straight.

 

[tonypex]

Tony,

Thanks for the suggestions! I have had an initial browse and will certainly be exploring the possibilities. Whatever I get into, it must have a high probability of success!!!

In the past I have not got into binary betting, because although their is a probability of regular small profits the few losses are big, and frighten me! It is a different methodology obviously, but it appears to be the opposite of normal trading, in which one expects regular small losses and relies on the fewer big profit trades to bring success! The dramatically high ratio of wins to losses in binary betting, is strongly offset by the small average size of wins relative to the large size of losses.

I believe the spread betting companies are not too keen on people using effective systems. They tolerate it I think, so as not to frighten too many clients away. Most of their clients, and maybe their best clients, are actually losers (in the trading sense). It is their right to refuse to do business with someone who is costing them too much, or who is, as they like to put it, "abusing" their account. Just as bookies do. Maybe I am paranoid (OK I am), but I suspect they are looking for trading patterns that might reveal a flood of "system" type trades which "abuse" their service. That is one thing that worries me about using a successful and widely marketted "black box".

The Concept people claim to have a good relationship with IG Index, and actually try to put business their way, but I am not sure if IG Index recommend Concept to their clients!!! I wonder, are Concept just trying to keep IG Index sweet, so that customers don't get banned?

So what, I wonder, do other betting companies think of clients who have a "96% success rate", and so on ?! And do they dread the success of their clients?

If anyone on here thinks I have got the wrong end of the stick in this matter, I would really like them to take me aside and put me straight.

Sandy,

Your right about betting companies such as Bookies - that why most punters move around the market so to not have too many wins with one particular Bookie.
However Betting Exchanges such as Betfair and Betdax don't care they make money either way. Because every punters bet that is place ON is layed OFF by another punter and they take a commission off both.
One question - who is the longest user in this group and how long? Concept stated to me they have over 400 users! - I find that hard to believe!.
I subscribe to Business Opportunities and there is a user who joined in March 08 states she has had the same winning results as published by Concept.

 

[tonypex]

hi guys
just had this emailed, dont know maybe it should be the start of a new thred ttake a look i haven't
got a clue

hhttp://www.on2url.com/app/adtrack.asp?MerchantID=104461&AdID=396496

Hi Griff
A tad late reply - I found your message this while spending today researching ConceptFX . The link is to 'The Ultimate Forex Predictor' which has been given quite thumbs up from Business Opportunities website, where 4 other users plus the website reported 10/10.
This website has led me to Concept which has also been reviewed and given 10/10 out of one reviewer.
I am skeptical about all these packages and like to research myself.
If you need anymore info on them let me know.