I took profits on my (Long) short-term swing trade today at 1705.
The market backed off smartly from resistance @ 1723-1725 area.
In @ 1600
Out @ 1705.
A nice 6-day profit of over 100 points.
I will, ofcourse, keep monitoring Cocoa for a longer-term Position Trade, as I see much more upside potential in the weeks and months ahead.
The market backed off smartly from resistance @ 1723-1725 area.
In @ 1600
Out @ 1705.
A nice 6-day profit of over 100 points.
I will, ofcourse, keep monitoring Cocoa for a longer-term Position Trade, as I see much more upside potential in the weeks and months ahead.
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gene
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I'm gonna just stay in unless I see a clear reversal signal on the daily chart after a close. I all too often try scalping the market only to get scalped myself. I tried it on Coffee a couple of times. If I would have just stayed in, I would have made MUCH more profit.
gene
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It may be time to start watching Cocoa, again. The market has traded down 5 days in a row, and has tested and retreated from 2 levels of what I consider support. I don't think it will reach the next level. What's so bearish? Peace in Ivory Coast? Funding for the Co-ops? Peace and funding do not create more cocoa, nor do they remove mold, nor do they put money in the farmers' pockets while they could still hold out for higher prices.
I'll be watching. The downside: I have to wake up earlier to watch it, and with no gaurantees.
I'll be watching. The downside: I have to wake up earlier to watch it, and with no gaurantees.
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Gene.
That's interesting..looks like two bull flags winding themselves up into a pennant triangle against a bullish background...looking at the triangle does 2100-2150 look about right as a possible target if it breaks up from it's potential apex ? Whats a 50ema and 30 ema look like on that chart ?
In fact why not start scaling in at open ,or earliest if it breaks up..stop back at 1550 ?
That's interesting..looks like two bull flags winding themselves up into a pennant triangle against a bullish background...looking at the triangle does 2100-2150 look about right as a possible target if it breaks up from it's potential apex ? Whats a 50ema and 30 ema look like on that chart ?
In fact why not start scaling in at open ,or earliest if it breaks up..stop back at 1550 ?
gene
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Oh, PLEASE!! Don't start asking me questions as if I were a trading guru!! I'm just an ordinary chimp trying to make some $bananas$ . What I do is post my opinions and hope to get input from people smarter than me either saying, "Yeah! Right on", or , "You,re all wet."
The way I look at the markets, I draw trend lines/channels on charts of different time scales. I look at how long it as taken the market to move from here to there, look for signs of acceleration or stalling, fly by the seat of my pants, and try to guess how long it might take to get back to the trend line...Stuff like that.
Looking at the weekly Cocoa chart (a page or two back), I'd say about 1900 is a "sure-fire" (no such thing) target. However, if the market breaks trend-line resistance this time around, then 2100 looks very plausible. That's where there was some consolidation on the way down in the first half of 2003.
The fundamentals seem pretty darn bullish. Looking at the monthly chart (below), I don't feel too foolish suggesting that the market could reach about 2375 by the end of year 2006.
Oo-oo-oo-ooh. Hai hai HHYAAEEEIII!!!!! Ooh, ooh.
(For translation, see below chart.)
I'm just an ordinary chimp trying to make some $bananas$ . What I do is post my opinions and hope to get input from people smarter than me either saying, "Yeah! Right on", or , "You,re all wet."The way I look at the markets, I draw trend lines/channels on charts of different time scales. I look at how long it as taken the market to move from here to there, look for signs of acceleration or stalling, fly by the seat of my pants, and try to guess how long it might take to get back to the trend line...Stuff like that.
Looking at the weekly Cocoa chart (a page or two back), I'd say about 1900 is a "sure-fire" (no such thing) target. However, if the market breaks trend-line resistance this time around, then 2100 looks very plausible. That's where there was some consolidation on the way down in the first half of 2003.
The fundamentals seem pretty darn bullish. Looking at the monthly chart (below), I don't feel too foolish suggesting that the market could reach about 2375 by the end of year 2006.
Oo-oo-oo-ooh. Hai hai HHYAAEEEIII!!!!! Ooh, ooh.
(For translation, see below chart.)
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LOL..".hope to get input from people smarter than me" ....why presume anyone is smarter than you when it comes to managing your money......my questions were actually my reading of the chart and my course of action to trade that commodity.....looks to me the retracement has lost steam and after 6 days I would expect short term action to come back into line with the trend which is still intact ...if it falls below 1550 that looks too bearish for me intermediate...I hadn't looked at prior R for 2100 ...I had simply taken the high and low of the triangle and added it to the breakout point for the apex...but in that they tally I like that has a stronger possility.. scaling it if possible looks nice to me and if it cleared 1650 I'd be adding to position...
Actually looking at your first chart the 50ema is nicely upwards and your 30ema is sideaways but will turn upwards if price action goes north for 2 or 3 days ...hmmm in or wait for a close over 1650 ? LOL....depends on the size of your pot
Actually looking at your first chart the 50ema is nicely upwards and your 30ema is sideaways but will turn upwards if price action goes north for 2 or 3 days ...hmmm in or wait for a close over 1650 ? LOL....depends on the size of your pot
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gene
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I sometimes use intraday charts (drawing lines on them too) to help decide whether to enter. I like when ALL time frames, from monthly on down- to agree on an entry point.
That thing you said, "Why presume anyone is smarter...": Excellent point. I guess what I really meant is that I would like some cooberating (or not) evidence of an expected market move.
That thing you said, "Why presume anyone is smarter...": Excellent point. I guess what I really meant is that I would like some cooberating (or not) evidence of an expected market move.
Gene,
Re intraday I think this is only valid if you are short term playing..that is 2 - 5 days..if you are position playing for weeks to months to get several hundred points then I don't see much use for intraday ..to me that smacks more of never having enough confirmation to enter the trade...don't mean anything personal by that by the way...it's just paralysis by analysis through adding data after data probably loses more points than it gains through adding to initial risk..just my view..willing to be persuaded differently if anyone has the proof.
Re intraday I think this is only valid if you are short term playing..that is 2 - 5 days..if you are position playing for weeks to months to get several hundred points then I don't see much use for intraday ..to me that smacks more of never having enough confirmation to enter the trade...don't mean anything personal by that by the way...it's just paralysis by analysis through adding data after data probably loses more points than it gains through adding to initial risk..just my view..willing to be persuaded differently if anyone has the proof.
gene
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This is not a market I wanted to sell. The fundamentals seem extremely bullish, and I kept thinking the market could turn back up, possibly explosively, at any time. I see the potential (likelyhood?) of a huge rally and felt it to be worth the wait. There are other markets out there in the meantime, you know.
JagdPanther
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does anyone have any information on the price of cocoa at the farms inland? it's selling for aroudn .70 a kilo at the port, so i'm assuming the farms are far lower. any articles or knowledge would be appreciated, thank you!
gene
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I couldn't find that info, but this is interesting: (You,ve probably seen it, but what to heck...I'll paste it, anyway.)
______________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________
01-17 09:52: Nigeria Cocoa Exports Slow As Shippers Hoard Beans
DJ Nigeria Cocoa Exports Slow As Shippers Hoard Beans
AKURE, Nigeria (Dow Jones)--Exports of cocoa beans from Nigeria have slowed
as some shippers have stopped buying cocoa or hoard beans already bought
because low world market prices have squeezed their margins, industry sources
said.
Exporters told Dow Jones Newswires that selling cocoa abroad was "not very
attractive" at current prices and that therfore only those who are obliged by
contracts continue exporting beans.
Prices for graded, export-fit cocoa beans in Nigeria are around 180,000 Naira
or $1,358 a metric ton ($1=NGN132.50).
Cocoa at the New York exchange sold at $1,500/ton for March, by the time the
exchange closed Friday. The exchange was closed Monday.
"With (all the) legal charges and the illegal ones paid while moving cocoa to
the ports in Lagos from the hinterland, it is not very attractive selling at
prevailing world market prices," the chief executive of an Akure-based trading
and exporting firm told Dow Jones Newswires.
Legal charges include an export tax of $5/ton and the levy of 1% of the
export value of the cocoa paid for pre-shipment inspection.
With illegal charges he meant the bribes cocoa traders say they have to pay
to policemen who stop trucks on the way to the ports.
But exporters are convinced prices will go up soon.
"Every year prices move up by the first or second week of February. I can
ship my cocoa then, " said one Lagos-based exporter.
Two other exporters at the port also told Dow Jones by telephone that they
had reduced business waiting for world market prices to go up by the end of
this month.
Meanwhile a buyer in Akure said money to purchase cocoa was scarce as
commercial banks were reluctant to lend money.
He also said exporters stockpiled cocoa bec they expect prices to go up
soon as that is always the case towards the end of the main crop season.
"We usually see prices going up on the terminal market when main crop
harvesting starts tailing off. Exporters think it will be like that this year.
They are buying cocoa with the money they are able to get and stockpiling," he
said.
A buyer in Akure, with 80 tons of cocoa in his warehouse, said the current
weather was conducive for stocking cocoa beans.
Humidity is low thanks to the Harmattan desert wind blowing over the cocoa
belt. Cocoa beans get moldy quickly if poorly dried and/or stocked under humid
circumstances.
Main crop harvesting takes place between September/October and January or
February and peaks in November/December.
Due to the abnormal rainfall pattern in mid-2004, this season's peak came
later, in December, and is expected to continue until the end of January, after
which marketing will quickly tail off.
Nigeria is the world's fourth largest cocoa producer after Ivory Coast, Ghana
and Indonesia, with an annual production of 160,000-200,000 tons.
-By Obafemi Oredein, Dow Jones Newswires; 234 (0) 805-516-3846;
vincent.t'[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
edit
I looked over a weekly chart and found the above statement about cocoa price moving up in the first or second week of February every year not to be true.
______________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________
01-17 09:52: Nigeria Cocoa Exports Slow As Shippers Hoard Beans
DJ Nigeria Cocoa Exports Slow As Shippers Hoard Beans
AKURE, Nigeria (Dow Jones)--Exports of cocoa beans from Nigeria have slowed
as some shippers have stopped buying cocoa or hoard beans already bought
because low world market prices have squeezed their margins, industry sources
said.
Exporters told Dow Jones Newswires that selling cocoa abroad was "not very
attractive" at current prices and that therfore only those who are obliged by
contracts continue exporting beans.
Prices for graded, export-fit cocoa beans in Nigeria are around 180,000 Naira
or $1,358 a metric ton ($1=NGN132.50).
Cocoa at the New York exchange sold at $1,500/ton for March, by the time the
exchange closed Friday. The exchange was closed Monday.
"With (all the) legal charges and the illegal ones paid while moving cocoa to
the ports in Lagos from the hinterland, it is not very attractive selling at
prevailing world market prices," the chief executive of an Akure-based trading
and exporting firm told Dow Jones Newswires.
Legal charges include an export tax of $5/ton and the levy of 1% of the
export value of the cocoa paid for pre-shipment inspection.
With illegal charges he meant the bribes cocoa traders say they have to pay
to policemen who stop trucks on the way to the ports.
But exporters are convinced prices will go up soon.
"Every year prices move up by the first or second week of February. I can
ship my cocoa then, " said one Lagos-based exporter.
Two other exporters at the port also told Dow Jones by telephone that they
had reduced business waiting for world market prices to go up by the end of
this month.
Meanwhile a buyer in Akure said money to purchase cocoa was scarce as
commercial banks were reluctant to lend money.
He also said exporters stockpiled cocoa bec they expect prices to go up
soon as that is always the case towards the end of the main crop season.
"We usually see prices going up on the terminal market when main crop
harvesting starts tailing off. Exporters think it will be like that this year.
They are buying cocoa with the money they are able to get and stockpiling," he
said.
A buyer in Akure, with 80 tons of cocoa in his warehouse, said the current
weather was conducive for stocking cocoa beans.
Humidity is low thanks to the Harmattan desert wind blowing over the cocoa
belt. Cocoa beans get moldy quickly if poorly dried and/or stocked under humid
circumstances.
Main crop harvesting takes place between September/October and January or
February and peaks in November/December.
Due to the abnormal rainfall pattern in mid-2004, this season's peak came
later, in December, and is expected to continue until the end of January, after
which marketing will quickly tail off.
Nigeria is the world's fourth largest cocoa producer after Ivory Coast, Ghana
and Indonesia, with an annual production of 160,000-200,000 tons.
-By Obafemi Oredein, Dow Jones Newswires; 234 (0) 805-516-3846;
vincent.t'[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
edit
I looked over a weekly chart and found the above statement about cocoa price moving up in the first or second week of February every year not to be true.
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