Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?

[The Baptist]

March Coffee Weekly Continuous Chart


The March Weekly chart (continuation) below is plotted with the Moving Average % channel.

This shows a very bullish structure.

The uptrend is supported by the upper channel line - a classic bull posture last seen in 2004-2005 rally.

Today we had an Outside day up and closed near the highs for the move.

My calls for a bigger correction may not be heard...

The Bull run continues.

BTW - The Baptist - I use FutureSource and/or Barchart.com for my charts. 30-min delay.

Also use the IG live charts , FWIW.

strong chart with small continuation pattern over last 4/5 days takeout of 125 level will be Doubly bullish.

Good luck

 

[The Baptist]

strong chart with small continuation pattern over last 4/5 days takeout of 125 level will be Doubly bullish.

Good luck

For clarity on the March 07 contract a close above 129/130

 

[The Baptist]

March Coffee Weekly Continuous Chart


The March Weekly chart (continuation) below is plotted with the Moving Average % channel.

This shows a very bullish structure.

The uptrend is supported by the upper channel line - a classic bull posture last seen in 2004-2005 rally.

Today we had an Outside day up and closed near the highs for the move.

My calls for a bigger correction may not be heard...

The Bull run continues.

BTW - The Baptist - I use FutureSource and/or Barchart.com for my charts. 30-min delay.

Also use the IG live charts , FWIW.

Thank you for the chart sites DaveT.

I feel your original view of a downleg still has some possibility with the January 2006 high serving as resistance today.

Although this has not tainted the long run view and I would expect this level to be taken out at a later stage if not in this primary move.

Robusta seems to have made a nice base and in my view has genuine upside BO potential.

For any lurkers benefit and one or two othes who raised the issue of tradeability. I called IG and they re-enabled my platform for Arabica quotes, so those using IG, you will need to call the desk and get enabled, incidentally CMC have Arabica available on CFD's and anticipate having the SB version available by February 2007.

This may even be of interest to DaveT depending on degree of activity as CMC's spread on Robusta is 4 pip's to Ig's 7 - 10. current IG spread on Arabica is 0.60 USD - 60 pips. It wil be interesting to see where CMC come in next year. Not of such consequence on long term/position traders, but still it adds up over a few years.

For those others wandering why Robusta is at 1468 and being less valuable than arabica at 127.8. The contract specs are different.

The first amount is $/ton for Robusta and the 127.8 for Arabica is cent/lbs, so If we say 2200 lbs per ton, it becomes clear the premium Arabica fetches at $2794/ton to Arabica's $1470/ton, virtually double.

DaveT I have linked in the chart from Futuresource on Arabica, when I look at the monthly chart it seems like the opportunity for a downleg has passed and this BO will run continously for awhile yet, on the shorter term charts, and taking the level of todays pullback leaves a chance for an easing as a possibility.

 

[DaveT]

The Baptist -

Ecexllent post and good charts.

Indeed my original call for a (daily) downleg IS coming to pass.

Note likely support around the 40-day MA.

This should be an excellent buying opportunity IF the correlation to 04-05 is going to continue...

Here is an update of that COMPARISON chart...

 

[minx]

What the hell caused that huge spike in (london)coffee on the open today? You guys been getting over keen on your bullish positions?? Hungover?

 

[TWI]

That robusta went crazy this morning. I have no position but this did not help. I hear that upsdie could get exciting with Nestle buying up origin.

 

[minx]

Well lets hope so! This mkt has been ranging since sept. Lets hope its just been catching its breath after the august move and about to explode out of the blocks again..... either direction, I dont care....

 

[TWI]

minx - I take it long straddles then.
I am not in but people who are supposedly in the know tell me to buy some of this sh*t.
I was looking at long term cocoa chart and realised that is probably the worst market in the sector but one thing struck me. Buy 800 Sell 1000 there seems to be nothing else. Unfotuntely right now it is 900 so have to wait a while.

 

[Pippppin]

Coffee has had a recent correction. Any thoughts?

 

[pssonice]

COFFEE bottome out @ 113

.

 

[minx]

Is that modern art?

 

[pssonice]

this is called linear regression

approximation of the price in time of primary order applying multi dimensional modelling on 7 most important currency pairs

 

[Pippppin]

Coffee has gone quiet on this board....are the long-term long positions still in place?

 

[cs00nnb]

Coffee has gone quiet on this board....are the long-term long positions still in place?

New York Coffee long still in place, dont sell this. hold on for long term.
If it goes down more, like another 10%, then rather think about buying more than selling my positions.

 

[Regulator2005]

Come on Cof up yee go!

 

[TWI]

I have taken quite a beating holding on to this coffee. I hear all these bullish arguments and after doing some research it appeared to make sense. It has not been reflected in the price but this is a good time in the year to be long coffee and the fundamentals do seem to be in place for a rally. I will hold in there. Who knows, one day i may even make a bean in this bullsh*t.

 

[chump]

TW,
don't let it 'ground' you down ..wouldn't want you to become a has 'bean'

 

[minx]

I'm sure it'll 'perk' up soon, something is definitely 'brewing'..... oh dear

 

[Regulator2005]

Coffee did go up - thought it would today, although I don’t see strong indications of a big rise yet. I was just talking about today’s move. However, I would expect another rise in price tomorrow. Then no more plays until stronger fundamentals indicate price direction.
Reg

 

[Pippppin]

I have been watching the long term coffee chart for some time. I took a long position a couple of weeks ago. Take a look. It could be interesting over the next few months.