timsk
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I hate answering questions with a blindingly obvious answer that no one else has put forward, as I usually end up feeling very
. But what the hell, the 'debate' seems to be getting a bit charged so, if my answer is a silly one, it might at least serve to lighten the general tone. The obvious answer is . . . P&F.Actually, time can be represented crudely on P&F charts by adjusting the box size so that on average - roughly speaking - mas o menos - kind of, ish, depending on the volatility of the instrument in question, prices reverse once a day or once a week or whatever.
Tim.
SOCRATES
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Yes, quite so....but there is something missing from his statement is there not ?
.........until he has been given the opportunity or has been afforded the priviledge of experiencing the truth for himself.
SOCRATES
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I hate answering questions with a blindingly obvious answer that no one else has put forward, as I usually end up feeling very
Actually, time can be represented crudely on P&F charts by adjusting the box size so that on average - roughly speaking - mas o menos - kind of, ish, depending on the volatility of the instrument in question, prices reverse once a day or once a week or whatever.
Tim.
Same thing...the time element is expressed and displayed by the progression of the price as it unfolds in a chart but that expression does not visually do justice to time and the use of time in a really tangible mode that can be grasped unless you are tuned to it.
zupcon
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Opportunity is something that you take, its not a priviledge, and its definately not something that you should sit around waiting to be given.
zigglewigler
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Emotions are the primary moving force in the markets and can't be discounted or relegated. All rationalization of data is simply an attempt to satisfy the markets bias, it's need to fulfill a desired destiny, if the market is convinced of a bull status then it finds only the 'facts' that support that scenario.
Time is a factor in determining price, either by a feeling that values have been high or low for too long, to take some profits off the table, or as traders sit with itchy figures desperate to get in on some action.
The market is not rational, after the Martini fueled lunch hour, New York acts. :cheesy:
To analyze price irrespective of time is foolish. Try some Fib time analysis and see what comes up.
zigglewigler
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Clearly not in unison, every trader will have their own time line, that in part contributes to the noise. The armies you mention will be waiting for Bernanke to descend from Mount Sinai, and will respond to the commandments accordingly.
All the mental midgets will collectively participate without the need to phone each other simply because that is what they do. The markets open, therefore it must be time to trade. The big players will wait for the first half hour bell and fade them to death, irrespective of price levels.
Many thousands of traders are using opening half/full hour break strategies. Anything to do with the absolute price level? Nope, but everything to do with time.
During a lull, the funds will hit program trades forcing a move, nothing to do with price levels but a concerted and timed attack.
As for what I believe, I try not to. I trade exhaustion points within ranges, and leave opinions behind. The degrees of effect caused by time, value and volume are irrelevant. Interesting but irrelevant. I'll trade what is.
zupcon
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Lets get a few things clear. Approximately 2 years ago, I received an unsolicited PM from Bulldozer (as did many others) regarding his website and platinum lounge membership.
In the initial invitation, John asked if I was Maltese. I informed John that I am English, I am not Maltese, I informed him that I have business interests in Malta, and that I am classified as resident in Malta for the purposes of taxation etc. So your statement regarding an invitation being extended out of sysmpathy, on the grounds of my nationality is complete and utter nonsense.
I also informed John, quite politely I may add, that I had no interest in derivatives, and that perhaps there where others who might benefit from the invitation.
However, despite making all of the above points quite clear, over the coming months, I continued to receive a stream of PM's from the various NICS used by John, Bulldozer, Options 69, Paddy Blue Boy etc each blatantly soliciting for business.
Now I can fully understand why someone running a failing trading website might wish to solicit for business in this way, rather than paying for legitimate advertising space. But I must admit I found it hard to understand why the illiterate moron would continue sending unsolicited PM's, littered with childish icons, in which he refers to the membership and management of T2W as a bunch of phuckin monkeys, or why he chose to send me PM's disclosing other members personal information, or PM's that where little more than vitriolic attack upon a certain long standing member of this site. His personal issues with other members should remain just that, but he chose to involve me, and indeed others in his childish games.
Furthermore, I am unclear as to how I "misused" a membership that I did not accept. This insinuates that I was a member who somehow misbehaved and violated the rules of your site, and as you are very well aware this simply isnt the case, and its disingenuous of you to suggest otherwise. There was no futurology involved on my part in declining John's offer, my instincts simply informed me that I was dealing with at best an uneducated fool, and more likely a mentally unstable zealot.
You may well feel that I am sniping at every opportunity, however, if you insist on posting nonsense, I'll continue to comment if I feel a comment is warranted, or if it amuses me to do so. As you are aware this is a public board, you have no control over the responses that your comments solicit. If you wish to discuss issues amongst those you classify as your peers (Bully & Gombeen Man), you have of course the option of posting over at city bulls, in your private forum.
Finally I would also suggest that given that you are now a shareholder in the aforementioned site, perhaps a vendor tag might now be in order.
If you wish to throw around insults, perhaps a PM would be more approprate and we can allow the thread to continute without interruption and disruption.
I am more than happy to discuss trading related issue's, and as Ive said on many occassion I find your posts both entertaining, enjoyable, stimulating, and on occassion bordering on genius. Its pretty clear to me, that youve got your ducks in a row. HOWEVER, attempts to distort the truth, by propoganda and constant repetition, will not go unchallenged. You have no need to stoop to bully or CYOF's level, I know that, you know that, and I suspect the majority of members here at T2W know that.
regards & best wishes
zupcon
In the initial invitation, John asked if I was Maltese. I informed John that I am English, I am not Maltese, I informed him that I have business interests in Malta, and that I am classified as resident in Malta for the purposes of taxation etc. So your statement regarding an invitation being extended out of sysmpathy, on the grounds of my nationality is complete and utter nonsense.
I also informed John, quite politely I may add, that I had no interest in derivatives, and that perhaps there where others who might benefit from the invitation.
However, despite making all of the above points quite clear, over the coming months, I continued to receive a stream of PM's from the various NICS used by John, Bulldozer, Options 69, Paddy Blue Boy etc each blatantly soliciting for business.
Now I can fully understand why someone running a failing trading website might wish to solicit for business in this way, rather than paying for legitimate advertising space. But I must admit I found it hard to understand why the illiterate moron would continue sending unsolicited PM's, littered with childish icons, in which he refers to the membership and management of T2W as a bunch of phuckin monkeys, or why he chose to send me PM's disclosing other members personal information, or PM's that where little more than vitriolic attack upon a certain long standing member of this site. His personal issues with other members should remain just that, but he chose to involve me, and indeed others in his childish games.
Furthermore, I am unclear as to how I "misused" a membership that I did not accept. This insinuates that I was a member who somehow misbehaved and violated the rules of your site, and as you are very well aware this simply isnt the case, and its disingenuous of you to suggest otherwise. There was no futurology involved on my part in declining John's offer, my instincts simply informed me that I was dealing with at best an uneducated fool, and more likely a mentally unstable zealot.
You may well feel that I am sniping at every opportunity, however, if you insist on posting nonsense, I'll continue to comment if I feel a comment is warranted, or if it amuses me to do so. As you are aware this is a public board, you have no control over the responses that your comments solicit. If you wish to discuss issues amongst those you classify as your peers (Bully & Gombeen Man), you have of course the option of posting over at city bulls, in your private forum.
Finally I would also suggest that given that you are now a shareholder in the aforementioned site, perhaps a vendor tag might now be in order.
If you wish to throw around insults, perhaps a PM would be more approprate and we can allow the thread to continute without interruption and disruption.
I am more than happy to discuss trading related issue's, and as Ive said on many occassion I find your posts both entertaining, enjoyable, stimulating, and on occassion bordering on genius. Its pretty clear to me, that youve got your ducks in a row. HOWEVER, attempts to distort the truth, by propoganda and constant repetition, will not go unchallenged. You have no need to stoop to bully or CYOF's level, I know that, you know that, and I suspect the majority of members here at T2W know that.
regards & best wishes
zupcon
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counter_violent
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The correct fibonacci sequence is as follows....0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13...etc and not as chris in the Doc posted 1,2,3,5,8,13
Just in case any newbies did'nt know
cv
Just in case any newbies did'nt know
cv
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Incorrect.No it is not. I am surprised at you being a supposedly educated man with a string of degrees yadayada expressing such proleteriat views.
An opportunity is offered by the giver and may or may not be accepted by the taker.
The prerogative to offer rests upon the giver to offer and the taker to accept and not as you imply...for the taker to grab...without the priviledge being offered to him first.
I am surprised at you...I expected you to know better..
Opportunity is something one creates for oneself. There is no other type of opportunity. Opportunity is never given or taken as it is not a commodity that can be given or taken. It can only be created, and then only by oneself.
Cheers,
PKFFW
frugi
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I agree that opportunity is not a commodity. It is an intangible concept, a convenient word to describe a confluence of choice and circumstance, with the emphasis largely on the latter.
An opportunity must be somehow provided to qualify; perception and acceptance of it then breathe life into the definition. After all what is an opportunity without someone to perceive it? Then, perceived but not accepted, it is merely a missed opportunity. See, I'm in deep trouble already, which is handy as I'm trying to highlight the happy futility of arguing a strict definition.
By provided I do not necessarily imply conscious intent: e.g the opportunity to watch a sunset is not provided deliberately by the Moon going Oi Earth mate shift round a bit I can't take any more Pink Floyd. Nevertheless it is definitely not provided at half past two in the afternoon, unless one is the type who says without irony Yah I'm still on New York time actually, talk to the Slackberry.
Anyway, the purest opportunites tend to be fleeting and potentially beneficial.
If one spots £5 lying in the street the opportunity momentarily arises to pick it up and enrich onself (unless one is an economist who, having seen a beloved law of efficiency roundly disproven, wishes instead to burn it and thus enrich everyone currently holding money by imperceptibly lowering their cost of living). It doesn't arise if one doesn't see the fiver. There would be an opportunity cost incurred if while kneeling down a tenner floated jauntily by - just out of reach - and blew into a river.
Of course I also have a perennial opportunity to scratch my ****, at least until my scalping hand is run over by a four hundred pound bulldozer. Twice. But this would probably not be described as an opportunity except by one with threadworm or a persistent interest in the smell of faeces. Or, god forbid, both. Anyway I need to shut up and get onto Guy Browning about this for his How to column. He would do it much more elegantly.
Emotional traders make decisions which often lead to volume. Emotions can tear through crowds like a bush fire. A fixed time bar highlights this effectively as there will be sudden increased vertical movement for the same horizontal unit. It jumps out like a sore over-leveraged stop loss. Whereas in the same circumstances a volume, tick or range bar just says no worries mate no need to panic I'll just print more frequently to keep things looking calm and orderly. In this case the obvious visual representation of emotion is attenuated, though imho by no means removed. Both these shades of perspective may be useful.
One could rig up a device to take his pulse and then print bars in relation to its frequency. That way when he is being assailed by involuntary heightened emotional response they'll subtly print more quickly, much in the manner of a volume bar, thus avoiding those tall scary candles that might lead to suboptimal primitive responses.
But perhaps he won't truly reap the benefit cause the overall vertical distance between a bunch of them will still be changing on the screen so, erm, fast.
Whatever type of bar a day trader employs in a conventional charting package there is no escaping the fact that (vertical - and it is invariably so) price movement will naturally be viewed with reference to time even if the bar in question or the x-axis furiously denies it. The human subconscious just can't help it. Still, it makes a market tick. Sorry none of the above is new or relevant.
PS Stamp out grafitti on toilet walls: sign a partition now. Oh dear.
An opportunity must be somehow provided to qualify; perception and acceptance of it then breathe life into the definition. After all what is an opportunity without someone to perceive it? Then, perceived but not accepted, it is merely a missed opportunity. See, I'm in deep trouble already, which is handy as I'm trying to highlight the happy futility of arguing a strict definition.
By provided I do not necessarily imply conscious intent: e.g the opportunity to watch a sunset is not provided deliberately by the Moon going Oi Earth mate shift round a bit I can't take any more Pink Floyd. Nevertheless it is definitely not provided at half past two in the afternoon, unless one is the type who says without irony Yah I'm still on New York time actually, talk to the Slackberry.
Anyway, the purest opportunites tend to be fleeting and potentially beneficial.
If one spots £5 lying in the street the opportunity momentarily arises to pick it up and enrich onself (unless one is an economist who, having seen a beloved law of efficiency roundly disproven, wishes instead to burn it and thus enrich everyone currently holding money by imperceptibly lowering their cost of living). It doesn't arise if one doesn't see the fiver. There would be an opportunity cost incurred if while kneeling down a tenner floated jauntily by - just out of reach - and blew into a river.
Of course I also have a perennial opportunity to scratch my ****, at least until my scalping hand is run over by a four hundred pound bulldozer. Twice. But this would probably not be described as an opportunity except by one with threadworm or a persistent interest in the smell of faeces. Or, god forbid, both. Anyway I need to shut up and get onto Guy Browning about this for his How to column. He would do it much more elegantly.
Emotional traders make decisions which often lead to volume. Emotions can tear through crowds like a bush fire. A fixed time bar highlights this effectively as there will be sudden increased vertical movement for the same horizontal unit. It jumps out like a sore over-leveraged stop loss. Whereas in the same circumstances a volume, tick or range bar just says no worries mate no need to panic I'll just print more frequently to keep things looking calm and orderly. In this case the obvious visual representation of emotion is attenuated, though imho by no means removed. Both these shades of perspective may be useful.
One could rig up a device to take his pulse and then print bars in relation to its frequency. That way when he is being assailed by involuntary heightened emotional response they'll subtly print more quickly, much in the manner of a volume bar, thus avoiding those tall scary candles that might lead to suboptimal primitive responses.
But perhaps he won't truly reap the benefit cause the overall vertical distance between a bunch of them will still be changing on the screen so, erm, fast.
Whatever type of bar a day trader employs in a conventional charting package there is no escaping the fact that (vertical - and it is invariably so) price movement will naturally be viewed with reference to time even if the bar in question or the x-axis furiously denies it. The human subconscious just can't help it. Still, it makes a market tick. Sorry none of the above is new or relevant.
PS Stamp out grafitti on toilet walls: sign a partition now. Oh dear.
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Yes...also see site below which I think is one of the best sites for FN....Many interactive examples etc......
This is the Home page for Dr Ron Knott's multimedia web site on the Fibonacci numbers, the Golden section and the Golden string hosted by the Mathematics Department of the University of Surrey, UK.
http://www.mcs.surrey.ac.uk/Personal/R.Knott/Fibonacci/fib.html
new_trader
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They are both correct.The fibonacci sequence can start at 0 or 1. What you have provided are seed values 0 and 1 for the fibonacci sequence. As far as I am aware the sequence is defined by it's recurrence relation and does not need to start at 0.
3,5,8,13,21 is a Fibonacci sequence.
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new_trader
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Jon,
I think you should re-open the Plain Vanilla Options thread. It's clear people still want to get things off their chest and it will (Hopefully) stop it spilling over into other threads, as keeps happening.
....Actually you are correct when you say that 3,5,8 etc is part of a Fibo Sequence....But Counter Voilent is very right when he says that Fibo series MUST start with 0......after all Fibonacci is credited with introducing the 0 to west in 1202AD.......
At the early stage the sequence fluctuates wildly before settling at ratio 1.6....
Therefore Fibo series has 0 as a starting number ...and nothing else....
zupcon
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A better solution might be to open a new thread altogether, where those who wish to exchange insults can do so without further disruption to sensible threads. I feel quite strongly that Its important that the old thread remains sealed, it is a classic on many levels.
We also wouldnt want to give anyone the opportunity to edit posts retrospectively now would we
regards
zu
Also what would be a very good idea .....I hope Paul and mods are going to look at this....is that a form of 'voting' is given to the participants......
And that way it works is as follows:
When a thread has strted on a particular subject the the discussion must pertain to that subject and nothing else......If someone posts a response that is seen as not really relevany then the users have a voting right to vote OUT that particular post.....That post will then end up in a - Plain Vanilla.....where that discussion can continue....
It should take 7 people to vote to say that this post is NOT relevant and therefore it will automaticallly move to - Plain Vanilla......
And that way it works is as follows:
When a thread has strted on a particular subject the the discussion must pertain to that subject and nothing else......If someone posts a response that is seen as not really relevany then the users have a voting right to vote OUT that particular post.....That post will then end up in a - Plain Vanilla.....where that discussion can continue....
It should take 7 people to vote to say that this post is NOT relevant and therefore it will automaticallly move to - Plain Vanilla......
new_trader
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Yes, the Fibonacci series begins at 0 but that does not mean that a series needs to contain 0 to be a Fibonacci series. 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 is a Valid Fibonacci series and does not start with 0. It satisfies all the requirements. [F1 = 1; F2 = 1; Fn = Fn-1 + Fn-2 Each member of the series is the sum of the previous two]
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