Calling all "Senior Members T2W" Experienced traders! Help Newbies?

[stevespray]

Thirteen.....

Could you explain how you work out your control prices ?

Steve.

 

[SOCRATES]

Yes go on tell him, so that we can all have it explained to us, but in clear language please, without expletives, without typos, without abbreviations and properly punctuated, so that we can all benefit.
I am not posting until this appears. We wait with bated breath.

 

[SOCRATES]

No, some time has passed and no show. He's gone coy, you see. Probably the constraints are too tight, too refined for his liking. Oh ! Alright then! Just go on and tell us all about it in your own words then..........go on..... its OK really......really it is.....all of you keep quiet as not to freak him, he may yet appear to regale us with his wisdom...., err whizzdom.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Perhaps it would be wise to wait for him to be online

 

[stevespray]

Thirteen...

"The midprices of consolidations"....could you point out some examples and expand on your theory please ?

Steve.

 

[Sirlosealot]

where abouts are u stuck?

where r u now? where do u want to be? (1 step at a time)

13

Where am I stuck?

Well I am stuck a part way through the knowledge quest. I suspect at a very very common point in a traders learning path but one that weeds out a good few of us.

I believe the knowledge phase is split into 2. The first stage is all in the public domain. This just takes time and effort to acquire. It varies from free to ridiculously expensive. But the fundamental make up of the market mean that this public knowledge is not enough. The market works to ensure that a trader armed with this knowledge will fail. As it is comparatively easy to acquire most of us are stuck at this level thus ensuring 80-20 ratio.

The next stage of knowledge acquisition is much more difficult. The smartest may ,as you point out be able to work this stage out for themselves. I suspect there are very few who can trade profitably in any conditions after just a few months – as opposed to just hitting a lucky streak or finding a small imperfection in the market. Early on in my visits to this board there was a discussion of a young graduate who was making untold volumes of money scalping the NASDQ for one of the major MMs. She sounded a real wiz and incredibly skilful. But a later article that was not given as much publicity had her struggling with the bear market and admitting to the interviewer that she wasn’t to happy shorting! She didn’t understand the market. She had a rich backer and happened to have the right temperament for the particular conditions at the time. Once these changed her performance wasn’t so remarkable.

What I am looking for is direction in gaining this next stage of this knowledge. What struck a chord with me and why I made my last post is that Socrates is giving importance to this aspect of knowledge (if I'm understanding his posts correctly). And his descriptions of systems and methods articulated elements of what I think but had not really realised. I think this knowledge part is often downgraded because of the greater importance of the psychological aspects. But that is not to say the knowledge part is not vital as well. What is the most important organ in the body –well whatever you answer there are a number of organs that are absolutely essential in order for the body to continue to live at all. In the same way psychology may be more “important” but its all academic if you don’t have the knowledge and I feel that at my stage this knowledge acquisition should be my next step. And I have just arrived at this stage and have just realised that all the knowledge I have acquired is just not good enough but I cannot ,just at the moment, see how to find out how the markets really work. So thats why I'm lost!

Regards

Gerard

 

[chump]

13,
you didn't answer his question...Gerard did not ask about therapy or psychology...he asked about knowledge..that is what makes the markets work...what you told him might work or it might easily lead him to ruin by virtue of the fact he doesn't have the knowledge....yes he might not get any major losers,but he doesn't need to ..he just needs to get the transaction/spread costs of hitting loser after loser .... Gerard if you hang around you might get some good pointers here on the subject of knowledge ,but here's the bad news ...most of it you will either end up getting yourself , or you will end up paying one way or another .... indeed on the subject of unlearning .... should be obvious ,but often seems it isn't so here's a free lesson .... there are no free rides (or if there are I have not found any)

 

[SOCRATES]

We All Demand a Proper Answer !

i already have described how they work in earlier posts

examples? look at some charts and take note of the points between retracments - where do they retrace to and wot was price doing at level before?

Here he is at last, bless him......

Thirteen, NO YOU DO NOT !
You cannot slither away with a throw away statement by answering a legititimate question,
(as a consequence of your own prodding at others on this thread)
with another two questions as a form of reply !

That is an affront to the courtesy you are being shown !

You have been asked to explain what how when where if and but related to what you call the "Control Price". What is this control price of yours ?How does it feature in the scheme of things in congestion as you claim ?

Right ! Now that you have wandered into this, we ALL expect you to answer, that is to answer PROPERLY and to give a detailed explanation that everyone can follow.

So, let us have it, at your very earliest convenience please. We are waiting. The others may let you off lightly, but I am determined not to.

Too much nonsense is bandied about this topic for my liking.

 

[SOCRATES]

I dont disagree that the 'quality of your thinking and how you direct it' is vital - I believe I think fairly effectively every day at work; I also however believe that alot of unnecessary abstractions are made around the subject of trading; which far from having the effect of directing thinking, achieve exactly the opposite. Trading is not difficult - with some discipline and the most basic understanding of arithemtic it IS possible to be successful - its all about filtering out he irrelevant and keeping focus on the important...

Yes, that's better. Good !

 

[SOCRATES]

I think this definition is the one I'll go with... to just add my spin in a trading context, Method is the 'set of actions' one takes to realise a trading System - this is a 'set of rules' which define market conditions for successful trades ( it may be discretionary or mechanical ).

Good ! That is alright too.

 

[Roberto]

the problem with therapy is that it focuses and draws out all your -ve thoughts.

Some people see that as an advantage, not a problem. "Drawing out" is "e-ducating", you know ...

 

[ZigZag]

Zig Zag, with respect and not wishing to imply I am contradicting for the sake of it ; but I clearly understand Bracke's dilemma. You see, in a previous thread I went to great lengths to explain the difference between a method and a system. This as well is a confusing matter that is frequently overlooked. Its importance cannot be underestimated. I am willing to expand on this ;~

First of all a system is how something is put together, like for example an airport. The functionality of this hypothetical airport is not always at the same activity level. The airport may be evacuated because of a bomb scare, or it may be closed owing to fog, or it may be hyper active with passengers on the eve of a bank holiday weekend. In other words, its condition of activity will vary. The airport, devoid of people altogether is a system, a system devoted to air travel and air transportation. If the airport is devoid of people( and this includes passengers, pilots, aircrew, groundcrew, ATC personnel, customs, security, cleaners, caterers, retailers, support staff, etc., ) the airport is still an airport but it is not functioning.
In other words it constitutes a situation which is inert, because it does not run itself on its own automatically( the time may come when this does happen, but not yet) therefore, the airport remains a system. Nothing can happen until something is made to happen.

When all these people return and the airport has passengers, pilots, aircrew, groundcrew, ATC personnel, customs, security, cleaners, caterers, retailers, support staff, etc., and all these people except for the passengers, are on duty, the airport springs to life. This happens because suddenly, it becomes as a consequence of being operated, greater than the sum of its parts, we call this a Gestalt, a German word that means just that.

In order for a system to become a Gestalt, it has to be operated. It cannot be operated randomly. It has to be operated according to a plan of operation. This plan of operation is a method.

On these boards I constantly see a system confused with a method. They are two very different things. A method cannot be employed unless there is a plan, an intent to do so.

This plan, or intent to do so requires know how. Not just anybody can step in and do every job in an active airport. Each job is different. You could say duties in the airport are divided by specialisation in order to produce the total result, the desired Gestalt.

Each of the participants has a niche, and a part to play in making the airport operative.
Each has specialised knowledge of his or her function. Before they can carry out their work individually and collectively each has to know what to do and how to do it, otherwise all would be chaos. Therefore, using an airport and the people who work in it to make it function, as a model to understand these differences, we now become aware of the difference that exists between a system, a method, and a Gestalt, all of it underpinned by knowledge.

For this reason, I can structurally demonstrate to ypu that knowledge is what underpins everything. If we transpose this idea and we replace the airport with the markets, the result is the same, only the participants have changed and their functions are different of course.

For this reason, a method cannot be substituted for knowledge. Knowledge comes first and underpins everything. Then comes the system. To this system using the correct knowledge a method is then applied. The result is a Gestalt. If the knowledge and the method are correct, the result will be a successful gestalt. If they are not the result will be an unsuccessful gestalt. The method or any method for that matter, cannot be applied effectively unless there is the correct knowledge in the first place to underpin it ; And this is what Bracke is seeking, and not substitution of one thing for another.

The tragedy is that in large measure, very few focus correctly on this point, and are in a hurry to develop a method (which they erroneously go on to call a system) without the necessary fundamental underpinning ~ this once again is potentially disastrous if not dealt with in the correct order and with the importance that it merits.

Kind Regards.

Socrates,
Thank you for your post . As usual it was a good and interesting read. One point though I dont think I used the word system. If I may I would like to clarify my thoughts. I hope the following does not lead to a debate on semantics.
Oxford dictionary definitions:
Method: A particular procedure for accomplishing or approaching something.
Knowledge: Information and skill acquired through experience or education.

I believe therefore the following order of steps are required regardless what activity you are participating in.

1 Observation
2. From what you observe you then develop a method to accomplish your objective.
3. After the analysis of the method you acquire knowledge.
4. You acquire further knowledge from formulating a trading plan.
5. Trading Plan: Preservation of capital. Amount to risk per position. Risk analysis. Identifying the trend in your particular timescale. Stop loss . Varying the amount you stake. Knowing your entry and exit positions before your particular market opens. Look at other markets for confirmation of your posn.
Regards

 

[SOCRATES]

The 'dunces' of the group ? I personally dont find you to the point by any stretch of my imagination That not slanging just an completely honest personal statement.

Listen timcannel. Nobody is calling anyone in this group a dunce so far, although there is one potential but it happens not to be you. If your imagination does not stretch you will find as you go much deeper into this topic you will need to develop every possible thinking tool inside your head that you can, so I am not taking it upon myself to stretch your imagination, the market itself will do it for you.

As for you making a completely honest personal statement that's alright also. I am concerned with what is fact. You may not like the way I express it. But it is better for you that these facts are delivered to you for free than having to pay for them as a consequence of having to work them out for yourself trading for real.

Just take it or leave it, that is the brutal reality, thats all.

 

[SOCRATES]

tsk tsk u should really pay more attention albert.

see posts 186 & 204

i really cant see how much detail i need to go into about the mechanics of price and perceived value that hasnt already been mentioned in my earlier post about lt & st

if u think im going to type pages and pages before i get round to mentioning anything of substance or tangible benefit u r wrong.

as i said already - ive given the skeleton, but for those who want to know more need 2 look at charts themselves and see for themself - this way it will be more meaning to themselves.

4 those who are interested, why not post 2 charts of the same asset each in a different time frame. point out wot u think is correct and i will advise accordingly. albert - why not be a useful old soul and post the charts?

if i had another 'technique' of 'decision support framework' (hehehe im gettin clever now im usin big words) i.e. way of identifying entry - like say a ma crossover of price, wot use would an in depth method of trading it be?

this is because everyone has different tollerence, lifestyle, ability, account size - etc. so everyone would have to tweak and there4 get different success rates anyway. does this mean the technique is wrong - no it doesnt.

albert - you should know this as it is really quite basic - or is it a lame attempt to trip me up. bad luck my old mucker. u got 2 be up with the birds b4 u catch me out.

I have looked at your posts 186 and 204. The verdict is that you talk rubbish, period.
There you have it, blunt and to the point.

 

[DaveJB]

I'm darned if I can find 13's reference(s) to a mid or control price, so anyone with a post number I can look at to see where he used the terminology please educate me - however,
mid price, from the bits I have seen go past, would imply something like the midpoint between the upper and lower limits of a consolidation - I would imagine that we can all draw upper and lower limits on a sideways move, or a bull/bear correction, to make a reasonable stab at where the midpoint might be. In a measured move, which seems to be featuring quite often lately in my posts so you'd be surprised at how little they figure in my armoury, I'd use top minus mid to decide the move length, and mid minus this amount to determine a possible target for the completion.

'Unlearn' - again I think we all understand this, or ought to - it's when we have learned to do something, or have learned one way of doing something, and it's actually not that good a method - we have to unlearn the process to stop our response being automatic (and wrong) so that we can then learn the better way of doing things.

Whilst I agree that we need a common language where we agree the important terms, I see no point in arguing semantics - in fact it is counterproductive as some will feel their literary ability precludes posting for fear of 'correction'. Language is ever changing, and means what the majority decide it means - which is why english today is not the english of 1700, and why 'silly American spellings' are, as often as not, the ORIGINAL spellings (and in some cases meanings) rather than our current version.... Anglohpile (I cannot remember the appropriate 'phobe' - yankkephobe?) that I am it pains me to admit it!

Any chance of getting onto trading, rather than psychology, which I humbly submit has been done to death already? (If the entire 'basement' thread didn't cover it then spending 2 months on this thread considering mindset is not going to advance anyone any further than they have already managed to reach).

Dave

 

[dbphoenix]

Whilst I agree that we need a common language where we agree the important terms, I see no point in arguing semantics - in fact it is counterproductive as some will feel their literary ability precludes posting for fear of 'correction'.

Any chance of getting onto trading, rather than psychology, which I humbly submit has been done to death already?
Dave

It's not so much a question of semantics as of the concept being described or discussed. If the concept is wrong, it really doesn't matter what words are used to describe it.

As for psychology, perhaps it's been "done to death", but the lessons have yet to be learned. Suggestions as to how to resolve this quandary are welcome.

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates,
Thank you for your post . As usual it was a good and interesting read. One point though I dont think I used the word system. If I may I would like to clarify my thoughts. I hope the following does not lead to a debate on semantics.
Oxford dictionary definitions:
Method: A particular procedure for accomplishing or approaching something.
Knowledge: Information and skill acquired through experience or education.

I believe therefore the following order of steps are required regardless what activity you are participating in.

1 Observation
2. From what you observe you then develop a method to accomplish your objective.
3. After the analysis of the method you acquire knowledge.
4. You acquire further knowledge from formulating a trading plan.
5. Trading Plan: Preservation of capital. Amount to risk per position. Risk analysis. Identifying the trend in your particular timescale. Stop loss . Varying the amount you stake. Knowing your entry and exit positions before your particular market opens. Look at other markets for confirmation of your posn.
Regards

Zig Zag :~

Knowldge first.
Observation second.
Trading Plan third.
Method fourth.

treat it like a cycle....

More knowledge gained.
More to observe.
Modification to trading plan if necessary.
Method applied.

and again another cycle...

Even more knowledge gained.
Much more to observe and understand.
Modification to trading plan if necessary.
Method applied.

and again another cycle....

Much more knowledge gained.
Much more to observe and understand and "clock".
Modification to trading plan if necessary.
Method applied.

and again another cycle....

Knowledge gained so far extended.
Observe and clock.
Modiofication to trading plan if necessary.
Method applied.

and again another cycle...

Knowledge gained so far distilled.
Clock immediately.
Trading plan perfected.
Method applied.

and again another cycle...

Knowledge second nature.
Clock as development occurs.
Trading plan perfect.
Method applied.

and again another cycle....

Knowledge intuitive.
Clock as development unfolds.
Trading plan perfect.
Method applied.

and again another cycle...

Infutition.....
Clock in advance of development.
Trading plan perfect
Method applied

and so on and so on and so on, this will take you a long time to master only if you do it properly.

 

[SOCRATES]

It's not so much a question of semantics as of the concept being described or discussed. If the concept is wrong, it really doesn't matter what words are used to describe it.

As for psychology, perhaps it's been "done to death", but the lessons have yet to be learned. Suggestions as to how to resolve this quandary are welcome.

The quandary is that when you point out to people how it is they ought to behave then you get a mouthful of abuse as you yourself have had the mistortune to experience on the Elite Trader Website. Therefore the perfect ideal is for poeple who aspire to this profession to learn to come to terms with themselves, first, and to use your own words, DB, that is a biggie ! I suggest you wade through my thread "Journey from the Basement" if you need to understand more clearly the problems that beset people when they try to tackle all this via their ordinary everyday selves.

The tragedy is that everybody aspires but very few can succeed, as their own humanity is their own worst enemy.

 

[kevin546]

I am guessing here but I assume that Thirteen's term of mid or control price is a 'value play'. By the description offered it suggests it is a mid point over a longer time frame to produce its fundamental value.

Different methods can be applied in this style, such as simply reading price as suggested during congested periods and taking the mid point as it crosses in one direction or the other in line with the longer time frame. Another could be the use of Bollinger Bands and the crossing in a trend of the mid section from mid to top or vice versa. Another could be the retracement within a trend where the price falls away from an extreme section to return close to a moving average before regaining new strength and continuing the previous trend.

At least this is what the reference was to or something similar. If not then Thirteen could you clarify please.

Kevin

 

[DaveJB]

But does repetition do any good?
I'm quite possibly mirroring, to a small degree, Soc's own feelings on this point - the psychology amounts to detaching yourself from the trading emotionally - have a plan, execute it. Deviate from the plan in exceptional circumstances - and, frankly, that should be so rare an occurrence as to be not worth planning for!
If you lose it is because your plan isn't good enough - you should KNOW your psychology wasn't a factor.

I would hazard that it is the divorce of emotion from trading that is the most difficult for traders, once they are past the initial problem of finding a method that works - personally I don't give a fig if you call my 'plan for making money' a system or a method, although Soc does. A trader with a 'plan' that only returns one winner in ten is going to struggle to make a profit, so you need to do better than that. A trader who can pick 6 winners out of ten should make money, some don't however because they can't take the step of following their plan like a robot, and allow fear and greed to influence their management of each trade.

Having the psychology in place, without a 'better than 5 out of 10' plan/system isn't going to work, neither is having the system/plan sorted if your psychology is going to hamstring you whenever the going gets tough - you need both. Now I would argue that 'the basement' and 'no indicators' contain plenty of advice on the psychological side - repeating it all again here serves no purpose, and anybody who wants Soc to do exactly that is committing, imo, one of Soc's deadly sins - too lazy to go back and read the extensive notes on psychology already posted.

On the other hand, the 'other leg' has been hardly touched on - assuming readers have the mindset, and I would expect many here to have read 'basement' and 'no indicators' at length, then some inroads into 'the knowledge' is overdue.

None of this is intended, Soc, as a dig at you - I believe we've reached a point where it is 'comfortable' to keep discussing how we all feel about trading, what our attitude should be, and so on... it is so much easier than attempting to improve on what we see when we look at a chart.
Dave