Best Thread Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread

[montmorencyt2w]

Fair enough...I was not going to post them everyday...just trying to help. Anyway, they work for me. Good luck!

Thanks for your offer, but I would not have taken you up on it, partly for the reasons mentioned. Also because at the moment, I am more interested in learning about the various forces which drive this thing, whether it be fundamentals/intermarket relationships/other factors, rather than technicals. Technicals are important as well, but I prefer to try to work those out for myself.

By the way, I didn't ask where he was getting the levels from, but upon what his analysis was based (i.e. TA or FA or a mixture, or tea leaves or whatever).

BTW I read somewhere (was it FXstreet??) a longer term analysis saying it could go very high towards end of year, but I don't know really what this was based on. Mostly technical I think.

Well as I write, it looks like it doesn't want to break below 122.44-47 or so for the time being.

 

[Martinghoul]

There's a seasonal flattening pattern, generally, that's observed in a variety of rates mkts. That might be one of the reasons why people might generally believe in bund etc outperformance into year-end.

 

[stusse]

There's a seasonal flattening pattern, generally, that's observed in a variety of rates mkts. That might be one of the reasons why people might generally believe in bund etc outperformance into year-end.

could you explain what would drive this seasnoal flattening?

 

[Martinghoul]

could you explain what would drive this seasnoal flattening?

Well, I'll give you a brief summary of my understanding of it, based on what I know goes on in sterling and, to a lesser extent, in EUR. Basically, into year end pension funds get a lot of scrutiny from a variety of stakeholders and normally engage in some discrete window-dressing. Among the people that look at the books is an in-house actuary that normally finds that, to be on the safe side, they should decrease the duration gap (avg duration of their liabilities vs avg duration of their assets). This sort of window-dressing, across the industry, normally results in a healthy bid for long-dated assets, which flattens the curve.

As I said, this is just my 2c on the subject...

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Well, I'll give you a brief summary of my understanding of it, based on what I know goes on in sterling and, to a lesser extent, in EUR. Basically, into year end pension funds get a lot of scrutiny from a variety of stakeholders and normally engage in some discrete window-dressing. Among the people that look at the books is an in-house actuary that normally finds that, to be on the safe side, they should decrease the duration gap (avg duration of their liabilities vs avg duration of their assets). This sort of window-dressing, across the industry, normally results in a healthy bid for long-dated assets, which flattens the curve.

As I said, this is just my 2c on the subject...

Many thanks. It all helps to throw a little more light on what, to me, seems one of the more complex of instruments (or instrument-types) to trade.

 

[Aston1st]

Since 28th of Sept the Fly has been trending downwards. Previous to this it was trending smoothly upwards.

Would it have anything to do with Nonfarm payroll figures ? Open question.

 

[shatztrader]

If I may ask, is this on technical grounds, fundamental, or what?
(Not disagreeing; just trying to understand how this beast works!).

I am not an expert mont yet I can tell you that in order for the yield to change 1 basis point bund price has to move 7 ticks, while Schatz 2 ticks.... some people believe its all about yields here...

kind regards

 

[arabianights]

I am not an expert mont yet I can tell you that in order for the yield to change 1 basis point bund price has to move 7 ticks, while Schatz 2 ticks.... some people believe its all about yields here...

kind regards

That's only strictly correct when prices are around these levels fwiw.

mont google dv01 for more info...

 

[shatztrader]

That's only strictly correct when prices are around these levels fwiw.

mont google dv01 for more info...

hey arabianights you mean the convexity ?

 

[poborsky]

dont know if this helps with the seasonal aspect and i dont think the site has been updated recently but here goes

Saisonalitt :: SeasonalCharts.de

 

[montmorencyt2w]

mont google dv01 for more info...

Thanks Arabian.

 

[arabianights]

hey arabianights you mean the convexity ?

yer

 

[everyonerich]

bond trading seems too complicated for me

 

[TAjammy]

hmm my MT4 doesn't have the bobl but i opened a demo account on captial spreads to see the bonds charts. heres the bobl which TA wise looks nice for a long, aside from the bearish pin bar at support i'd still go long on it.

+ man oh MAN does this charting stink, you ca't even zoom out, scroll back or anything, this is really putting me off SBing lol

 

[AgeKay]

bond trading seems too complicated for me

don't worry about the theory. the bund is the most manipulated market of its size and they don't seem to care whether anything of that theory applies. they just move it one way and then the other until they have made their profit target or feel that there is too much resistance.

 

[AgeKay]

I don't know what is going on with the bund lately, but the ultimate strategy du jour seems to be short the open and go long around noon. The bund has followed this pattern for the past 5(?) trading days. It can't keep doing this forever, can it?

 

[traceyjc]

I don't know what is going on with the bund lately, but the ultimate strategy du jour seems to be short the open and go long around noon. The bund has followed this pattern for the past 5(?) trading days. It can't keep doing this forever, can it?

I've been a professional tech trader for a year now and i've never seen so many fake signals as I have in the Bund over the past year. It's a lottery in there. Short US30year if you're looking for a bond trade

 

[AgeKay]

I've been a professional tech trader for a year now and i've never seen so many fake signals as I have in the Bund over the past year. It's a lottery in there.

What do you mean by "fake" signals? Do you mean spoof orders? I actually really like the way it trades: trends are obvious, S/R works well, good trading range and many moves. Can't ask for more...

 

[montmorencyt2w]

What do you mean by "fake" signals? Do you mean spoof orders? I actually really like the way it trades: trends are obvious, S/R works well, good trading range and many moves. Can't ask for more...

How about reversals of trend? I've certainly been caught out by that big time, more than once.

How long have you been (successfully) trading it, and how long did it take you to become successful trading it? I've seen people say it's a market just like any other, but in my admittedly limited experience, this does not seem to be the case.

 

[AgeKay]

How about reversals of trend? I've certainly been caught out by that big time, more than once.

Of course happens, but most of the time there are like 3-4 large trends in the day and if you do get caught when it reverses just when you enter then you should cut your losses quickly. For example, today, 10:49 was tricky when it looked like it would reverse, but then just touched 123.10 and kept on continuing its trend higher.

It's best to enter on retracements when trading with the trend. You don't want to enter and hope for it to keep going. A lot of time you get screwed even when the trend continues just because it tends to retrace.

How long have you been (successfully) trading it, and how long did it take you to become successful trading it?

Once, I actually started trading (after wasting years on reading books and doing my own "research" with historical data), it didn't take longer than 3 months. The best way to learn trading is to sit there, watch the market and learn from your mistakes. I literally just looked at my (negative) results, found out why I lost and decided to do the exact opposite.

I've seen people say it's a market just like any other, but in my admittedly limited experience, this does not seem to be the case.

While I don't have much experience with other markets, this is what I think: Every market has it's own character in terms of volatility, trendiness (or lack thereof), how much it breaks out if it does, relationships with other markets, but they also share many things such as higher lows in up trends and lower highs in down trends, S/R turning R/S, largest traders moving the market. Then the bund has its manipulators that basically move it wherever they want to (limited to news releases).