Brexit and the Consequences

[0007]

It has not gone unnoticed that your last few post on the thread are a complete 180 degree turn of your views on politicians.
I'm glad we agree that they are all utterly useless. Hence my view that the power does indeed lie with the people.
Some food for thought here and woe betide that useless bunch of political pygmies if they think it's possible to shut us down. We aren't going away and my view is that we will escalate the situation until such time as we achieve the right outcome.

https://www.westmonster.com/more-br...ork-out-than-support-brexit-delay-poll-finds/

The population as a whole are almost certainly suffering from Brexit fatigue but nevertheless, that lot at Westminster have now been rumbled by many ordinary people who previously were just getting on with their lives. There will undoubtedly be consequences– I'm glad to say.

 

[0007]

I rather like this quote with reference to Sir John Major's baffling ascendancy to power and current meddling with Brexit:

"The Conservative Party rejected the most intelligent leader that they could have had and chose the thickest. A man with two O levels who lost billions during the ERM farce, put many into bankruptcy and who only excelled in making Bill Clinton look like a runner up when it came to bonking in the office. Now he is busy telling Germans to give his country the worst deal possible so that we carry carry on giving them lots of money that we don't have."

 

[AdamCantor]

Wellllll.... i dont know about you lot but i am staying out of GBP trades until it all comes to a solid conclusion. In the meantime... crypto trading time! Who else trades crypto here, anyone?

 

[AdamCantor]

Who else is avoiding GBP pairs and trading crypto while the brexit saga continues?!

 

[barjon]

It has not gone unnoticed that your last few post on the thread are a complete 180 degree turn of your views on politicians.
I'm glad we agree that they are all utterly useless. Hence my view that the power does indeed lie with the people.
Some food for thought here and woe betide that useless bunch of political pygmies if they think it's possible to shut us down. We aren't going away and my view is that we will escalate the situation until such time as we achieve the right outcome.

https://www.westmonster.com/more-br...ork-out-than-support-brexit-delay-poll-finds/

When have I ever said anything other than the current crop of politicians are very much a second rate bunch. Don’t think I’ve changed my tune at all. I did say that I had a bit of sympathy for for May since I think she was handed a hospital pass and a very weak hand to play - but I also said she was showing no leadership and was playing the hand (such as it was) badly.

Nonetheless these politicians still hold the power - the people don’t.

 

[hhiusa]

It is this statement that best describes the Brexit situation. The recent rally and volatility of the pound has been like a bull bucking bears from its back, leaving only the cowboy investor-types to ride it out. They already know the outcome, but I think they are trying to scare off investors from betting long or short. There's so many people in longs that nobody is hedging with shorts.

To some hedge fund managers, that limits the scope for further gains in the currency.

"No one in the financial world thinks ‘no deal’ is a remote possibility” [who did not wish to be named.] Any late buyers are therefore “playing for scraps” ... “I only get excited about the upside if Brexit gets cancelled,”

Sterling’s 2019 bounce adds to Brexit nerves

 

[counter_violent]

It is just possible that there will not be agreement to extend article 50

https://www.westmonster.com/eus-chief-negotiator-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit/

https://www.westmonster.com/senior-...-farage-veto-could-stop-article-50-extension/

 

[Atilla]

It is just possible that there will not be agreement to extend article 50

That's the idea.

No extension means, no deal brexit rejected.

How do we achieve that which has parliamentary support?

Revoke Article 50.


Happy days

 

[counter_violent]

That's the idea.

No extension means, no deal brexit rejected.

How do we achieve that which has parliamentary support?

Revoke Article 50.


Happy days

Actually it means we leave with No Deal on the 29th. That's still the legal position regardless what politicians have voted to reject.

 

[hhiusa]

It is just possible that there will not be agreement to extend article 50

https://www.westmonster.com/eus-chief-negotiator-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit/

https://www.westmonster.com/senior-...-farage-veto-could-stop-article-50-extension/

Agreed and I hope so!

UKIP alone has 8/73 MEPs. That's 11% representation for eurosceptics in UKIP alone. They have greater representation in EU parliament than in UK parliament.

The EU would be wise to see Farage and his ilk like a cancer (not because I don't like him), but because he can sow the seeds of discontent from within the EU if they don't deny the Brextension. "I'll be back with hordes of eurosceptics", Farage threatened. The EU runs the risk of allowing euroscepticism to increase if the UK is allowed to stay through the election.

 

[hhiusa]

Actually it means we leave with No Deal on the 29th. That's still the legal position regardless what politicians have voted to reject.

That is my understanding as well. When they triggered Article 50 they also enacted law wherein the Brexit date is written—29 March 2019. The EU Withdrawal Act must be repealed in order to prevent Brexit, which won't happen in such a short amount of time.

It is also unlikely that they will present a deal "that is neither the same, nor substantially the same" per Bercow if they wish to have a MV3.

Now that the UK has asked for an extension, they would have to go the EU like Oliver Twist for his bowl of gruel. If MV2 was bad, just think how bad an MV3 would be now that the EU has massive leverage.

No extension, no MV3 = no deal Brexit

 

[hhiusa]

 

[counter_violent]

The EU will only agree to delay Brexit if the UK Parliament approves the current withdrawal agreement next week, Theresa May has been told.
EU Council President Donald Tusk said a short extension, requested by the prime minister on Wednesday, was possible.
Mr Tusk said he believed all 27 other EU members, who must sign off on the extension, would agree but it depended on a "positive" vote in the House of Commons.
The length of any extension was open for discussion, he told reporters in Brussels.
While a delay until 30 June "had its merits", he also suggested there were "political and legal" questions about delaying Brexit beyond 23 May - when European elections will be held.
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Come on ERG DUP, just hold firm for the next vote and we are out.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47636011

 

[hhiusa]

The Ultimate Catch-22

If May was capable of having the Agreement pass, she wouldn't be asking for more time. EU says there must be a deal in place before extension. What is the logic there? Not that I care; I am loving this backwoodsy thought process.

If Bercow stays strong, there won't be a MV3. -> No Deal -> No extension -> No Vote -> No Deal!

 

[0007]

The Ultimate Catch-22

If May was capable of having the Agreement pass, she wouldn't be asking for more time. EU says there must be a deal in place before extension. What is the logic there? Not that I care; I am loving this backwoodsy thought process.

If Bercow stays strong, there won't be a MV3. -> No Deal -> No extension -> No Vote -> No Deal!
View attachment 261209

She can't get her deal through, thus not even a short extension will be available. Even the moderates in her own lot are openly saying it's got beyond a joke. All sorts of rumours floating around Westminster about the future – the most interesting is that she'll be making a statement outside Downing Street tonight.

Has she been persuaded to put herself and us also, out of misery?

 

[timsk]

. . . If Bercow stays strong, there won't be a MV3. -> No Deal -> No extension -> No Vote -> No Deal!

Impeccable logic hhiusa, but you're overlooking one incy wincy teeny weeny little detail. Namely, that Mrs. May, Bercow and the majority of MPs won't accept no-deal under any circumstances and will avoid it at all costs. That Includes resigning, and gawd knows very few of them have the necessary humility and integrity to do that!
Tim.

 

[counter_violent]

Impeccable logic hhiusa, but you're overlooking one incy wincy teeny weeny little detail. Namely, that Mrs. May, Bercow and the majority of MPs won't accept no-deal under any circumstances and will avoid it at all costs. That Includes resigning, and gawd knows very few of them have the necessary humility and integrity to do that!
Tim.

It is already written into law that unless a withdrawal agreement is passed by parliament, then the UK will leave with No Deal.
It doesn't matter a jot what politicians vote against. It's irrelevant that they voted against a No Deal exit.

 

[0007]

 

[hhiusa]

Impeccable logic hhiusa, but you're overlooking one incy wincy teeny weeny little detail. Namely, that Mrs. May, Bercow and the majority of MPs won't accept no-deal under any circumstances and will avoid it at all costs. That Includes resigning, and gawd knows very few of them have the necessary humility and integrity to do that!
Tim.

You are right as well except for one “incy weency” big issue: it doesn’t matter what MPs want; it’s already law.
EU Withdrawal Act 2017

No if‘s and‘s or but’s, if they sit on their hands as Bercow is forcing, they will crash out.

EU president thinks he can force the UK into submission by giving them a false dilemma of pass the deal or the end is nigh.

Parliament cannot legally vote on MV2 simply by calling it MV3.
A rose by any other name is still a rose.

since parliament is stalemated, it seems like it’ll be unlikely that they can repeal the EU Withdrawal Act as is necessary.

In short, if there is no extension and no repeal, the UK will Brexit.

 

[timsk]

It is already written into law that unless a withdrawal agreement is passed by parliament, then the UK will leave with No Deal.
It doesn't matter a jot what politicians vote against. It's irrelevant that they voted against a No Deal exit.

You are right as well except for one “incy weency” big issue: it doesn’t matter what MPs want; it’s already law.
EU Withdrawal Act 2017 . . .

Yes, yes, yes indeed gentlemen, I'm well aware of all that. But let's be honest, when it comes right down to it, one way or another, the political elite can get around all of those issues. They have the will and they can hire in the brains. The bottom line (underneath your bottom lines) is that whilst we might wish for the conclusion you each outline, there's a snowball's chance in hell of it actually happening. I look forward to eating my hat! ;-)
Tim.