Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

Sorry folks if some of you think it's more spam - just more scaremongering.

https://www.channel4.com/news/airbus-staff-react-to-ceos-brexit-warning

Whatever happens in the event of a hard brexit you can be sure future investments will remain outside of the UK into Airbus development. This is a negative for brexit imo.

 

[mike.]

Here’s a little bit of background into our great supporter Guy Verhofstadt, Credit to Chris -K-B on Twitter..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1088479315619131392.html

 

[counter_violent]

Here’s a little bit of background into our great supporter Guy Verhofstadt, Credit to Chris -K-B on Twitter..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1088479315619131392.html

To summarise.....it would appear their system of rigging mirrors our own, where failed politicians get to choose the house of lords or a cushy job lording it up in the EU. All expenses paid, not to mention a gold plated pension.

Does anyone still wonder why voters have completely had enough of all these political to55ers.

 

[Signalcalc]

Absolutely shocking the level of violence in France over the last 2 months, to see police beating up people in the streets is surely not a European style of policing, more reminiscent of the Russians, Chinese, Africans, Venezuelans, just what is happening in France, is there going to be some kind of Coup D'etat?

 

[cantagril]

Absolutely shocking the level of violence in France over the last 2 months, to see police beating up people in the streets is surely not a European style of policing, more reminiscent of the Russians, Chinese, Africans, Venezuelans, just what is happening in France, is there going to be some kind of Coup D'etat?

Ummm...I beg to differ. As a long-term French resident my take is slightly different. The French have two police forces, one civil, which includes the CRS or Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité whose main rôle is anti-riot etc etc and one dependent on the military, which includes the Gendarmerie Mobile. These are the two gorilla units that are deployed when things turn nasty and usually turn nastier still when they turn up. They are seen as being deliberately recruited from large, fit and violent gentlemen and everyone knows to to basically run like f*uck when these guys appear....which they do on a fairly regular basis. If you Google "Les émeutes urbaines" (urban riots) you will see that these guys come out to play like clockwork every time there's a bit of recreational disturbance in the Cités.

IMHO, what we're seeing is pretty normal for France. The level of routine violence and destruction of property is pretty shocking for Anglos but it's worth remembering that their history has been far more "interesting" and that their last almost-coup was 50 years ago, which was definitely no coincidence. The relationship between the State and the populace is considerably more fractious than in Brit World and where in the UK there would be some ranting in the media and questions asked in the House, in France they set fire to tyres on the motorways and burn cars in almost any of the urban centres - whether there is any valid connection or not.

So, the citizenry are possibly revolting but not revolutionary, quite yet.

 

[counter_violent]

Ummm...I beg to differ. As a long-term French resident my take is slightly different. The French have two police forces, one civil, which includes the CRS or Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité whose main rôle is anti-riot etc etc and one dependent on the military, which includes the Gendarmerie Mobile. These are the two gorilla units that are deployed when things turn nasty and usually turn nastier still when they turn up. They are seen as being deliberately recruited from large, fit and violent gentlemen and everyone knows to to basically run like f*uck when these guys appear....which they do on a fairly regular basis. If you Google "Les émeutes urbaines" (urban riots) you will see that these guys come out to play like clockwork every time there's a bit of recreational disturbance in the Cités.

IMHO, what we're seeing is pretty normal for France. The level of routine violence and destruction of property is pretty shocking for Anglos but it's worth remembering that their history has been far more "interesting" and that their last almost-coup was 50 years ago, which was definitely no coincidence. The relationship between the State and the populace is considerably more fractious than in Brit World and where in the UK there would be some ranting in the media and questions asked in the House, in France they set fire to tyres on the motorways and burn cars in almost any of the urban centres - whether there is any valid connection or not.

So, the citizenry are possibly revolting but not revolutionary, quite yet.

If you ask me....they are well on the way.

NOT AVAILABLE ON THE BBC

 

[counter_violent]

https://www.westmonster.com/heaver-eu-failure-to-secure-a-uk-deal-will-lead-to-european-fury/

 

[cantagril]

If you ask me....they are well on the way.

Again, there is a cultural chasm represented by the Channel. In France, conflict (usually engendered by some ill-prepared decision /declaration/policy) is a stage in negotiation rather than being outside the process. This is not to say that the Gilets Jaunes do not have genuine grievances, for they surely do, but it is wrong to think that what they're taking to the streets about is a new phenomenon. French society is far more 'directed" by the State than is the case in the UK and it gets involved in the minutiae of daily life to a degree which makes Kafka look quite laissez-faire. There is also a fundamentally different understanding of the functions of the main elements of a modern state - examples would be the the judicial system (one is NOT innocent until proven guilty) and the world of business and industry where employers are obliged to take on a role which has a lot more to do with social engineering than in sunny Albion.

The French are unruly folk and their style of government is a product of that. The deal done in 68 has led to 50 years of relative calm but at a huge cost to the very people who believed they were to benefit from it. The government effectively bought a degree of civil stability by dramatically reducing unemployment and reinforcing the security of the average citizen. This was done by inflating the civil service and deliberately creating what used to be called a "feather bedding" culture where civil servants from different State organs repeat each other's work and procedures whilst being un-sackable and having a guaranteed job for life and a reasonable retirement after. The case of the "cheminots" being a fair exemplar - in the days of steam these worthy railway engine drivers had a pretty grim set of working conditions and in recognition of that (and the minor detail that the economy relied on them) were given some exceptional privileges. These included retiring on a full pension at 50 to 52 or earlier under certain other conditions, like having a severely handicapped child - the 68 deal set these in stone even though conditions had already improved a lot. It's worth mentioning that until very recently the standard retirement age or civil servants was 55 to 60 and is being slowly raised to 62.

The engine drivers did not want to give up their exceptional privileges (naturally) even when conditions in the cab improved to the point where it's actually now a cushy number . The country has been brought to a standstill on several occasions as one government after another has tried to bring them in line. Things reached a watershed when a few years back the French union sent a delegation to Germany to get their brothers there to strike in sympathy and make the affair European. When the Bundesbahn chaps heard what the conditions were like in France they responded by asking whether they could get jobs there too as they had nothing like that in Germany - where retirement was already 60 to 62 and salaries 20% lower.

An unfortunate truth in France today is the enormous divide between the large hunk of the population with security (either money or job) and the rest. This is not a recent phenomenon and has been the case since the 90s at the latest. Successive governments have tried to tinker with the system but the honeymoon for a new government lasts a few months only. The unfortunate Macron swept in on a wave of optimism that there would be real change but was out of touch with the expectations of the unfortunate people. Unfortunate France now has a situation where the traditional parties were discredited and thus allowed Macron to enter through the cat-flap and now he's on his way out through the garbage-chute it leaves precious view options.

All a bit like the mess in the UK really

Farage is imminent. Hmm.

 

[timsk]

Thank you cantagril for two excellent posts providing real insight into France's history and what makes French men and women tick. What I find particularly interesting is that they highlight the absurdity of the idea that we are all European and that broadly speaking, English, French, Germans and Italians etc. are all pretty much the same. We're anything but, IMO. I've spent a fair bit in time in Spain over the last 20 years and the more I get to know it and the more I understand what makes Spaniards tick - the more I realise just how different they are to us Brits. And that's a good thing - not a bad thing. Therein lies the fundamental fault with the EU project and why I believe it will fail sooner or latter. You simply can't remove or replace what it is to be French from a Frenchman, or Spanish from a Spaniard or English from an Englishman etc., etc. These national identity traits are hard wired in at birth: they are to be celebrated and enjoyed, not diluted and homogenised. To attempt to do the latter - as the EU appears intent on doing in a vain attempt to turn us all into 'Europeans' - is at best misguided and at worst sheer folly.
Tim.

 

[counter_violent]

Tom Enders Upended


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-po...ancois-accuses-airbus-boss-of-german-bullying

 

[Atilla]

Tom Enders Upended


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-po...ancois-accuses-airbus-boss-of-german-bullying

I suspect current wing production may continue but any new investments will go elsewhere. They will move/shift parts manufacture as and when they can.

In the absence of a deal, over period of time, investment, jobs and skills will move.

 

[Atilla]

Again, there is a cultural chasm represented by the Channel. In France, conflict (usually engendered by some ill-prepared decision /declaration/policy) is a stage in negotiation rather than being outside the process. This is not to say that the Gilets Jaunes do not have genuine grievances, for they surely do, but it is wrong to think that what they're taking to the streets about is a new phenomenon. French society is far more 'directed" by the State than is the case in the UK and it gets involved in the minutiae of daily life to a degree which makes Kafka look quite laissez-faire. There is also a fundamentally different understanding of the functions of the main elements of a modern state - examples would be the the judicial system (one is NOT innocent until proven guilty) and the world of business and industry where employers are obliged to take on a role which has a lot more to do with social engineering than in sunny Albion.

The French are unruly folk and their style of government is a product of that. The deal done in 68 has led to 50 years of relative calm but at a huge cost to the very people who believed they were to benefit from it. The government effectively bought a degree of civil stability by dramatically reducing unemployment and reinforcing the security of the average citizen. This was done by inflating the civil service and deliberately creating what used to be called a "feather bedding" culture where civil servants from different State organs repeat each other's work and procedures whilst being un-sackable and having a guaranteed job for life and a reasonable retirement after. The case of the "cheminots" being a fair exemplar - in the days of steam these worthy railway engine drivers had a pretty grim set of working conditions and in recognition of that (and the minor detail that the economy relied on them) were given some exceptional privileges. These included retiring on a full pension at 50 to 52 or earlier under certain other conditions, like having a severely handicapped child - the 68 deal set these in stone even though conditions had already improved a lot. It's worth mentioning that until very recently the standard retirement age or civil servants was 55 to 60 and is being slowly raised to 62.

The engine drivers did not want to give up their exceptional privileges (naturally) even when conditions in the cab improved to the point where it's actually now a cushy number . The country has been brought to a standstill on several occasions as one government after another has tried to bring them in line. Things reached a watershed when a few years back the French union sent a delegation to Germany to get their brothers there to strike in sympathy and make the affair European. When the Bundesbahn chaps heard what the conditions were like in France they responded by asking whether they could get jobs there too as they had nothing like that in Germany - where retirement was already 60 to 62 and salaries 20% lower.

An unfortunate truth in France today is the enormous divide between the large hunk of the population with security (either money or job) and the rest. This is not a recent phenomenon and has been the case since the 90s at the latest. Successive governments have tried to tinker with the system but the honeymoon for a new government lasts a few months only. The unfortunate Macron swept in on a wave of optimism that there would be real change but was out of touch with the expectations of the unfortunate people. Unfortunate France now has a situation where the traditional parties were discredited and thus allowed Macron to enter through the cat-flap and now he's on his way out through the garbage-chute it leaves precious view options.

All a bit like the mess in the UK really

Farage is imminent. Hmm.

Super post Cantagril and what I find puzzling with our resident Tory members and Brexit supporters is their appetite to support yellow vests in the streets. This is coming from the likes of peeps who worship Thatcher for dressing down the unions (which is a good thing she managed to do).

This is a sincere question, in your opinion, do the yellow vest riots have anything to do with the EU or Brexit? From your write up, I'm interpreting the friction as one of national French exuberance to demonstrate. Vive la France

 

[0007]

Super post Cantagril and what I find puzzling with our resident Tory members and Brexit supporters is their appetite to support yellow vests in the streets. This is coming from the likes of peeps who worship Thatcher for dressing down the unions (which is a good thing she managed to do).

This is a sincere question, in your opinion, do the yellow vest riots have anything to do with the EU or Brexit? From your write up, I'm interpreting the friction as one of national French exuberance to demonstrate. Vive la France

Are you not mistaking support, for a suggestion of what could possibly happen?

 

[Signalcalc]

From your write up, I'm interpreting the friction as one of national French exuberance to demonstrate. Vive la France

Ummm...I beg to differ. As a long-term French resident my take is slightly different. The French have two police forces, one civil, which includes the CRS or Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité whose main rôle is anti-riot etc etc and one dependent on the military, which includes the Gendarmerie Mobile. These are the two gorilla units that are deployed when things turn nasty and usually turn nastier still when they turn up. They are seen as being deliberately recruited from large, fit and violent gentlemen and everyone knows to to basically run like f*uck when these guys appear....which they do on a fairly regular basis. If you Google "Les émeutes urbaines" (urban riots) you will see that these guys come out to play like clockwork every time there's a bit of recreational disturbance in the Cités.

IMHO, what we're seeing is pretty normal for France. The level of routine violence and destruction of property is pretty shocking for Anglos but it's worth remembering that their history has been far more "interesting" and that their last almost-coup was 50 years ago, which was definitely no coincidence. The relationship between the State and the populace is considerably more fractious than in Brit World and where in the UK there would be some ranting in the media and questions asked in the House, in France they set fire to tyres on the motorways and burn cars in almost any of the urban centres - whether there is any valid connection or not.

So, the citizenry are possibly revolting but not revolutionary, quite yet.

Thanks for this response and follow on post, it's always good to get an insider perspective. It bears out my statement that it is reminiscent of countries such as Russia, China, Africa, Venezuela, unfortunately it's unlikely we are not going to get an insider view of their cultural policing failings on this forum.

So France hasn't reformed? Whilst Britain and most of the Western world have moved policing culture on to largely respect the law (reform ongoing), France is severely lagging. It may be normal to the French, they may accept the situation for what it is, the Gilet Jaunes and the police accept the violence they hand out to each other, in Britain, Oz, NZ, Canada and to a large extent the US reform has meant that this is no longer acceptable.

It shows one aspect of the chasm between France and the Western world, despite the veneer the media like to present, it appears France has a lot of work to do to reach the high standards set by reforming countries.

I'm surprised the EU accept this with its borders, maybe I am naiive in believing that the EU is different from France, in fact I believe that I would be very naiive in believing such a thing.

 

[counter_violent]

Super post Cantagril and what I find puzzling with our resident Tory members and Brexit supporters is their appetite to support yellow vests in the streets. This is coming from the likes of peeps who worship Thatcher for dressing down the unions (which is a good thing she managed to do).

This is a sincere question, in your opinion, do the yellow vest riots have anything to do with the EU or Brexit? From your write up, I'm interpreting the friction as one of national French exuberance to demonstrate. Vive la France

Someone take Att to puppy training.

 

[Atilla]

Hey guys, you really are confusing me.
You quote my post but with no meaningful answers.

My questions were sincere and genuine. I'm trying to distinguish between what is an EU wide issue and what is a domestic or national policy issue.

I do recognise that economic migrants and refugees outside of the EU need to be stopped. I would certainly tighten our generous social security policies and benefits handed out to people from the EU as well. As mentioned before this was a policy option open to Cameron and the UK long before Brexit.

I don't recall French, Italian or German national issues as being put forward in the Brexit debate. Now the thread seems to be
discussing other countries elections, leaders and their troubles.

Is this about distracting from UK's predicament and the pickle brexiteers have put us in?


If this is an EU issue, what do you propose EU do about yellow vests? Even if they did do anything, dare they mention any suggestions, than it'll be about EU interfering controlling national policy and you'll be pelting them with more eggs and domatoes

Let me rephrase that for you. If dear old Maggie was alive now, how do you imagine she would deal with the Fellow Vests?

 

[Atilla]

Are you not mistaking support, for a suggestion of what could possibly happen?

What do you mean by what could possibly happen?

What do yellow vests want? More state help, social give aways, workers rights and money. Have I got it wrong? They want cheap, petrol, low rents and Macron to leave and someone who'll give them early xmas presents?

 

[counter_violent]

Hey guys, you really are confusing me.
You quote my post but with no meaningful answers.

My questions were sincere and genuine. I'm trying to distinguish between what is an EU wide issue and what is a domestic or national policy issue.

I do recognise that economic migrants and refugees outside of the EU need to be stopped. I would certainly tighten our generous social security policies and benefits handed out to people from the EU as well. As mentioned before this was a policy option open to Cameron and the UK long before Brexit.

I don't recall French, Italian or German national issues as being put forward in the Brexit debate. Now the thread seems to be
discussing other countries elections, leaders and their troubles.

Is this about distracting from UK's predicament and the pickle brexiteers have put us in?


If this is an EU issue, what do you propose EU do about yellow vests? Even if they did do anything, dare they mention any suggestions, than it'll be about EU interfering controlling national policy and you'll be pelting them with more eggs and domatoes

Let me rephrase that for you. If dear old Maggie was alive now, how do you imagine she would deal with the Fellow Vests?

There's nothing to be confused about. The fact is, you don't like the answers given.

The yellow vest movement might appear confused in the sense that they have a list of personal and common grievances which have been brewing for a long time. These working people have seen their standard of living decline over many years and their ranks are swelled each year as more of the middle classes are caught up in the wage race to the bottom. In addition to this we can throw into the mix the constant stream of cheep foreign labour moving in on their turf. Also, companies can simply up sticks and outsource their manufacturing to China or some less well developed backwater in Europe. Combine all this with pressure on housing and services as a direct result of open door immigration. We have Brexit. America has Trump. It's all the same problems that are affecting people.

The yellow vests haven't quite joined the dots up yet. The enemy is the EU and their own national politicians who support the EU. In the UK, we have joined the dots up which is why this Brexit battle must be won, not only a battle against the EU, but also against our own wrong thinking politicians, and why we are giving Remoaners such a hard time. Don't even get me started on the crony corporate's, the establishment and their collusion with politicians.

 

[Atilla]

There's nothing to be confused about. The fact is, you don't like the answers given.

The yellow vest movement might appear confused in the sense that they have a list of personal and common grievances which have been brewing for a long time. These working people have seen their standard of living decline over many years and their ranks are swelled each year as more of the middle classes are caught up in the wage race to the bottom. In addition to this we can throw into the mix the constant stream of cheep foreign labour moving in on their turf. Also, companies can simply up sticks and outsource their manufacturing to China or some less well developed backwater in Europe. Combine all this with pressure on housing and services as a direct result of open door immigration. We have Brexit. America has Trump. It's all the same problems that are affecting people.

The yellow vests haven't quite joined the dots up yet. The enemy is the EU and their own national politicians who support the EU. In the UK, we have joined the dots up which is why this Brexit battle must be won, not only a battle against the EU, but also against our own wrong thinking politicians, and why we are giving Remoaners such a hard time. Don't even get me started on the crony corporate's, the establishment and their collusion with politicians.

I hear what you are saying but as with the Brexiteers argument, it is a very simplistic one which imo will not solve our issues.

You mention nothing about at the skewed distribution of income or the accumulation of wealth in the hands of the very few. You merely look at one aspect of migrants keeping wages suppressed which is a point to consider. Peoples living standards have risen imo. Quite a few based on debt.

If multinational corporations didn't locate in markets where it is cheaper to manufacture, produce or assemble goods then much like US and China both parties will lose. Who will lose more remains to be seen. US products will cost considerably more if US Corp is restricted from producing goods in other countries. The will become uncompetitive. I also think US needs to lose dominance as it has turned into a big bully from being the policeman of the free world. How will UK or other nations position be any different to what we are seeing play out in US and China?

International trade has benefited the whole world where countries specialise in production where they have an advantage. This is simply put but that is indeed the case.

Housing and services hardly an international issue but one which is more to do with planning regulations and green belt rules and social spending. Influx of extensive migrants doesn't help this yes, but then neither will cutting off the labour supply to those social services like nursing and doctors that depend on migrants to fill vacancies.


Brexit will not help our issues as evident from Trump helping America. All his done has been to give away 1.2 trillion in tax cuts. The whole game is about maintaining the income flows of the mega rich without any discourse to resolving underlying fundamental systems which ultimately, much like a ponzi scheme will implode.


I guess only time will sort out this mess. Seeing is believing.

 

[counter_violent]

I hear what you are saying but as with the Brexiteers argument, it is a very simplistic one which imo will not solve our issues.

You mention nothing about at the skewed distribution of income or the accumulation of wealth in the hands of the very few. You merely look at one aspect of migrants keeping wages suppressed which is a point to consider. Peoples living standards have risen imo. Quite a few based on debt.

If multinational corporations didn't locate in markets where it is cheaper to manufacture, produce or assemble goods then much like US and China both parties will lose. Who will lose more remains to be seen. US products will cost considerably more if US Corp is restricted from producing goods in other countries. The will become uncompetitive. I also think US needs to lose dominance as it has turned into a big bully from being the policeman of the free world. How will UK or other nations position be any different to what we are seeing play out in US and China?

International trade has benefited the whole world where countries specialise in production where they have an advantage. This is simply put but that is indeed the case.

Housing and services hardly an international issue but one which is more to do with planning regulations and green belt rules and social spending. Influx of extensive migrants doesn't help this yes, but then neither will cutting off the labour supply to those social services like nursing and doctors that depend on migrants to fill vacancies.


Brexit will not help our issues as evident from Trump helping America. All his done has been to give away 1.2 trillion in tax cuts. The whole game is about maintaining the income flows of the mega rich without any discourse to resolving underlying fundamental systems which ultimately, much like a ponzi scheme will implode.


I guess only time will sort out this mess. Seeing is believing.

The Brexit case is not even being made, which is the tragedy of it all. When we leave the protectionist EU, our food production needs a complete overhaul, which in turn would help with environmental transportation issues and also the fact that we could import exotics and any shortfall from less well developed economies. The losers would be the EU in so many areas including agriculture, fishing, exporting of unskilled labour which will become an even bigger drain within Europe.

As to the skewed distribution of income and wealth, wages in the UK will rise as the free for all unskilled pool of cheap labour dries up. Companies and Govt will need to ensure that UK nationals are trained up to match the skills shortage.

And finally, the way to deal with all businesses that operate in the UK is to introduce a turnover tax, so a percentage of all business activity carried out in the UK is paid to the exchequer and helps to fund services. This measure alone would go a long way towards solving the biggest issue of the corporate's enriching themselves at the expense of everyone else.