Brexit and the Consequences

[joseph1986]

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Firstly the euro is a currency and of course it doesn't need a country. Assuming you are referring to the EU and not the Euro, you are in fact wrong

Exports from EU nations to the UK

Germany, 8.4% of exports are to the UK (only dwarfed by their 9% exports to USA)

France, 7.1%

Italy, 5.5%

Spain, 7.7%

Netherlands, 9.2%

Poland, 6.6%

Portugal, 7.2%

Ireland, 13%

Total value of exports to the UK = approx 320bln

In fact the aggregate of all the countries makes the UK the largest export market with approximately 15% of all exports. We are also Europe's investment bank. There are 359,953 passports in use for financial services. Inbound from the EU to the UK is 23,532 in use while outbound is 336,421. The UK are central to the EU's financing requirements. Nowhere in the EU does the infrastructure exist for this to be simply shifted.

Further to this point, juncker recently stated that English is fast becoming irrelevant in the EU. It has been proven that countries with better English have better economies. Look at the EF English Proficiency Index and you will see a correlation between the rise of English proficiency and per capita income.

In summary, the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU (in some cases more such as the EU needing UK's financial services). Anyone who thinks the UK doesn't need the EU as a trading partner is deluded and trading between the 2 isn't going to stop post brexit (even if the remainers cast their opinions with this theme). The UK exports more to the rest of the world than it does the EU and this number is growing. We already have ties to other nations and with future trade deals even more so. Just yesterday Trump said he has no concern over the UK doing a free trade deal with the US and that is a market in equal size to the EU. US commerce secretary a few days ago said he is optimistic that the UK will sign a free trade deal with the US. He also said there had already been a "joint scoping exercise" in Washington in July on a free trade agreement between America and Britain" and that another similar meeting will be held in London next week.

Sounds to me like you have been toking on one of Junckers cigars.

let's not pretend semiconductors made in Britain can't be found anywhere else
Since you are focusing on exports so much, all western nations are facing stagnation in gdp
To counter this I am assuming they will attempt to increase government spending
bringing debt levels at astronomical levels by the turn of the century....exceptions will exist but will be seldom.
With every CBO study in the united states, increased debt will create a domino effect on gdp shrinkage, I'm assuming Britain will have the same problem.
If everyone will be crying for money in the future.....what good does it do for britain to **** off its european neighbors? I say take the loss, hold your head up high....most every nation is headed for the potato soup lines.

 

[Pat494]

I was listening on the radio to David McAlister a prominent German MEP.
In some ways I think the UK has made the right decision because the dominant Germans want to really tighten up things so much. We have escaped a German vision of heaven on earth where all the neighbours do it their way or else.
Yes Adolph's view of a United Europe under German control is being pushed. Poland, Hungary etc. don't like these developments down the pipeline either. They are pushing too hard for unification of border controls, financial controls etc.
We are well out of it. A pity really as it could have worked very well to the advantage of all.

 

[sminicooper]

I was listening on the radio to David McAlister a prominent German MEP.
In some ways I think the UK has made the right decision because the dominant Germans want to really tighten up things so much. We have escaped a German vision of heaven on earth where all the neighbours do it their way or else.
Yes Adolph's view of a United Europe under German control is being pushed. Poland, Hungary etc. don't like these developments down the pipeline either. They are pushing too hard for unification of border controls, financial controls etc.
We are well out of it. A pity really as it could have worked very well to the advantage of all.

Agree with that. As far as I'm concerned the political reasons for leaving the EU far outweigh the economic ones.

 

[FXX]

let's not pretend semiconductors made in Britain can't be found anywhere else
Since you are focusing on exports so much, all western nations are facing stagnation in gdp
To counter this I am assuming they will attempt to increase government spending
bringing debt levels at astronomical levels by the turn of the century....exceptions will exist but will be seldom.
With every CBO study in the united states, increased debt will create a domino effect on gdp shrinkage, I'm assuming Britain will have the same problem.
If everyone will be crying for money in the future.....what good does it do for britain to **** off its european neighbors? I say take the loss, hold your head up high....most every nation is headed for the potato soup lines.

Semiconductors represent a tiny 0.15% of total UK exports. That being said the UK is the birthplace of graphene which is set to revolutionise the semiconductor industry and there are many laboratories here in the UK conducting research into commercialising this amazing material.

Debt is an issue and was made worse by the credit crisis but we are seeing western central banks tapering down their QE programs and initiating programs to normalise their balance sheets. Those CBO studies are based on existing data and forecasts based on continuation of the status quo. They can't account accurately the scope and velocity of balance sheet normalisation so you should be taking those with a pinch of salt. To say all western nations are facing gdp stagnation is incorrect. Western nations would require a 0% growth rate to stagnate and this clearly isn't the case. Out of the G20 only Brazil is facing contraction with the rest growing at various rates. If you really feel so depressed about things maybe you should do something about it for your personal well being.

 

[barjon]

Agree with that. As far as I'm concerned the political reasons for leaving the EU far outweigh the economic ones.

Me too! Came to the opposite conclusion though 😀. Thanks to the EU europe is more stable than it has ever been in modern times. No more thousands and more lying dead on battlefields either. The irritations and inefficiencies are prices worth paying for that.

And if you worry about German control, then far better to be on the inside helping resist it and providing balance than on the outside wringing your hands.

 

[timsk]

Hi Jon,

. . .Thanks to the EU europe is more stable than it has ever been in modern times. No more thousands and more lying dead on battlefields either. . .

The stability we enjoy now results from trading with one another. That'll continue after we leave the EU - whatever deal (or no deal) we end up with. Corpses on battlefields won't happen for the simple reason that you can't sell cars (for example) to dead people. Sure, the EU deserves some credit for faciliating the trading agreements and, if the union today was just based on countries that wished to trade together (as opposed to political union) - I'd have voted to remain. Crediting the EU for the stability would only make sense (to me) if two or more member countries had got antsy with one another and the EU stepped in and successfully diffused the tension. They've not had to do this - yet. However, that could change if the Spain/Catalonia debacle gets out of hand. Hopefully it won't but, if it does, the EUs involvement thus far hardly fills one with confidence that they'll broker the peace.

I remember just before the referendum last year watching a TV debate that had one of our national treasures on the panel in the form the wonderful Sheila Hancock. At the time, I was convinced that the remain campaign were going to walk it - until I heard Sheila making the exact same argument that you've made here. Contrary to her protestations that her late father who fought in the war would be turning in his grave at the thought of leaving the EU - I thought the exact opposite - he'd be jumping with joy. After all, he fought to retain our independence and sovereignty - and not to be ruled by and dictated to by a foreign power. So, her argument made no sense to me at all.

. . .And if you worry about German control, then far better to on the inside helping resist it and providing balance than on the outside wringing your hands.

We won't be wringing our hands though Jon - because we'll be shot of all the EU nonsense. We'll be looking on in glee at the poor souls imprisoned inside like caged birds.
😀
Tim.

 

[dbphoenix]

Corpses on battlefields won't happen for the simple reason that you can't sell cars (for example) to dead people.

The money is in weapons, not cars.

After all, he fought to retain our independence and sovereignty - and not to be ruled by and dictated to by a foreign power. So, her argument made no sense to me at all.

England learned quite thoroughly in '38 and '39 that her "independence and sovereignty" were as fragile as egg shells. If she hadn't bonded with other nations, she would eventually have starved to death.

 

[sminicooper]

Me too! Came to the opposite conclusion though 😀. Thanks to the EU europe is more stable than it has ever been in modern times. No more thousands and more lying dead on battlefields either. The irritations and inefficiencies are prices worth paying for that.

And if you worry about German control, then far better to be on the inside helping resist it and providing balance than on the outside wringing your hands.

I would argue that stability in Europe has been due to the formation and firm stance of NATO. The EU is still in the early stages of its political development and intends to form a political bloc with its own army and potentially other forces. If that comes to fruition (which I doubt, because I see the EU crumbling due to dissatisfaction by its overly large number of members), then with Germany in control things could look very different in 20-30 years time.

The EU, with the exception UK, has clung on to the coat tails of NATO without coughing up the proper membership fee. Peace in Europe has largely been paid for by the USA.

 

[timsk]

The money is in weapons, not cars.

Well, to the best of my knowledge the Germans and the French aren't selling us many (any?) of those - so no worries on that front.

England learned quite thoroughly in '38 and '39 that her "independence and sovereignty" were as fragile as egg shells. If she hadn't bonded with other nations, she would eventually have starved to death.

Well dbp - if in say, ten, twenty or thirty years time everyone in the U.K. is starving to death while the EU members wash down Antonius Caviar with Champagne - then I'll concede you're right and eat humble pie. Am I worried this could happen? Am i heck!
😆

 

[Signalcalc]

Yep, NATO to the rescue of Europe, that and the fall of the Berlin Wall pushing back the Soviets. Seems we are entering another ‘quiet’ Cold War with troops in Estonia and the Russians gently pushing the envelope there, and not so gently in Ukraine. It’ll be NATO to the rescue again.

 

[dbphoenix]

Well, to the best of my knowledge the Germans and the French aren't selling us many (any?) of those - so no worries on that front.

You would be wise to look into where the weapons are going and who's buying them.

Well dbp - if in say, ten, twenty or thirty years time everyone in the U.K. is starving to death while the EU members wash down Antonius Caviar with Champagne - then I'll concede you're right and eat humble pie. Am I worried this could happen? Am i heck!

The lols aren't going to be of much comfort when you're choked off.

 

[dbphoenix]

Yep, NATO to the rescue of Europe, that and the fall of the Berlin Wall pushing back the Soviets. Seems we are entering another ‘quiet’ Cold War with troops in Estonia and the Russians gently pushing the envelope there, and not so gently in Ukraine. It’ll be NATO to the rescue again.

Don't overlook the influence of the far right with regard to NATO coming to the rescue. You may find that there is no there there.

 

[Signalcalc]

Don't overlook the influence of the far right with regard to NATO coming to the rescue. You may find that there is no there there.

Can you explain further?

 

[timsk]

You would be wise to look into where the weapons are going and who's buying them.

We (the U.K.) sell truck loads of arms to the middle east - Saudi Arabia in particular. Not good, not good at all - but it's got nothing to do with the EU.

The lols aren't going to be of much comfort when you're choked off.

No one - not even the likes of Atilla - thinks for one nano second that we're ever going to be 'choked off'. The Germans can't choke us off on the one hand and continue to sell us their cars on the other. Lots of things could result from Brexit, including some bad things, but that sure as hell ain't one of em'!
Tim.

 

[dbphoenix]

Actually it has to do with banding together rather than splintering apart.

Perhaps Brexiteers ought to rename themselves ostriches.

 

[FXX]

Ostriches? Maybe you should deal with the gun problem on your side of the world instead of looking at us as though we are idiots.

 

[timsk]

Actually it has to do with banding together rather than splintering apart.

Perhaps Brexiteers ought to rename themselves ostriches.

Hi dbp,
I'm sorry to say that you really don't understand what the referendum and Brexit is all about. It has nothing to do with 'splintering apart'. No one on this side of the debate is sticking their heads in the sand. The complete opposite in fact!
Tim.

 

[joseph1986]

/

Semiconductors represent a tiny 0.15% of total UK exports. That being said the UK is the birthplace of graphene which is set to revolutionise the semiconductor industry and there are many laboratories here in the UK conducting research into commercialising this amazing material.

Debt is an issue and was made worse by the credit crisis but we are seeing western central banks tapering down their QE programs and initiating programs to normalise their balance sheets. Those CBO studies are based on existing data and forecasts based on continuation of the status quo. They can't account accurately the scope and velocity of balance sheet normalisation so you should be taking those with a pinch of salt. To say all western nations are facing gdp stagnation is incorrect. Western nations would require a 0% growth rate to stagnate and this clearly isn't the case. Out of the G20 only Brazil is facing contraction with the rest growing at various rates. If you really feel so depressed about things maybe you should do something about it for your personal well being.

When was the last time the U.S. hit above 4% growth rate? 2000/2001
If you're in debt....(listen carefully because I'm going to give you 10 economics books in a sentence)......you either grow or spend less.
Spending isn't going down....this will cause the potato soup lines, growth isn't going up so they kept QE longer. If the QE had an effect on the everyday consumer we would be experiencing boom but the corporate whores hoard the money so they can maintain their stock price every 3 months. To think that everything will be daisies is just ignorant. I know The E.U. functions as a dictatorship guised under the term 'eurogroup', just because they are corrupt doesn't mean they don't have more resources and power than the U.K.
I'm not depressed, just skeptical, the west has been engineering economic outcomes since the 1940's and britain was one of the chief architects, now her majesty wants to leave a system she helped build.

 

[Atilla]

Choking isn't anything that can be quantified so it's pretty naff point to argue on.

Over the 2nd World war UK almost did starve to death as import of food stuff were choked by German u-boats and in pursuit of food some commonwealth nations went very hungry.

I think we were 7/8 in the GDP league tables prior to joining EU and I would have no hesitation in the absence of some reasonable deal with the EU, stating as a matter of fact it will not take us long to fall to that level from 5th spot.


With respect to denying success of EU and proportioning tribute to NATO is laughable if not ridiculous. What a load of b0ll0cks trying to belittle great EU achievement, envy of the world. Illusions of grandeur from people who don't know about their own industries or understand what the EU is about - a voluntary organisation which works in select tiers with various levels of integration.

For all the experts on NATO when was article 5 ever invoked and by whom?

UK is making a stupendous politically messed up decision to proceed with Brexit.

 

[FXX]

When was the last time the U.S. hit above 4% growth rate? 2000/2001
If you're in debt....(listen carefully because I'm going to give you 10 economics books in a sentence)......you either grow or spend less.
Spending isn't going down....this will cause the potato soup lines, growth isn't going up so they kept QE longer. If the QE had an effect on the everyday consumer we would be experiencing boom but the corporate whores hoard the money so they can maintain their stock price every 3 months. To think that everything will be daisies is just ignorant. I know The E.U. functions as a dictatorship guised under the term 'eurogroup', just because they are corrupt doesn't mean they don't have more resources and power than the U.K.
I'm not depressed, just skeptical, the west has been engineering economic outcomes since the 1940's and britain was one of the chief architects, now her majesty wants to leave a system she helped build.

The last time the US hit a growth rate above 4% was in 2014. Unlike us or businesses, a government has the licences to print money so debt to them is not the same as it is to us. QE has had an effect on everyone because without it business would have been unable to finance and that would have lead to growing unemployment which would have been a disaster. The biggest issue with QE is the global bond bubble it has cultivated. I suspect the credit crisis will be a 20 year problem with the next 10 years being a battle of inflation deflation. All this has nothing to do with brexit of course but I am sure the remainers will suckle on this teet for years to come.