Brexit and the Consequences

Pro-Brexit politicians must have known the EU would demand a high price for exit. We either pay it now in settlement or we pay it later in trade constraints/costs.

Pro-Remain politicians must have known they were arguing for political union with the EU.

Neither could bring themselves to say what they believed it seems. What a surprise.
 
The British public once again are being lied to and led astray by their politicians and treated as fodder. Deprived of accurate information and the facts. Parliament is kept out of the debate so unable to question or rationalise anything.

Let's look at what TM negoatiations are angling for?

We want access to free market and if you give us some assurances of what the future trade deal might look like, we'll see what we can give you?

Reading between the lines this is asking for free access subject to a one off payment. Effectively free access and membership justified by some self valued opinion, we buy more of your goods then we sell to you so its in your - EU's interests to keep us on board.

This is the crux of it.

Well look if you want something like this then just simply take up existing models whether be it the Swiss, Norwegian or just custom union membership?

Well no, coz we are British and we want something a little better, extra and special.

So the EU turns around and says WTF do you want. Be clear!

TM says but I just gave you a wonderful Florence speech and came to your feet to grovel and have a lovely dinner assuring you UK will meet and honour her committments.

So the EU says well you do speak some lovely words but we are not seeing anything on paper to help us negotiate. We can't negotiate on words they have to be proposals on paper.

UK says well we can't do that until you tell us what the trade agreement will look like.

Yep definitely a case of want to eat cake indeed.

As for all the hard core Brexiters, membership fees to a club doesn't make one own the club. So asking for assets back is just bloody minded. Investments in the EU or UK are all agreed and balanced. Hence, no side need compensate anyone.

UK quite entitled to leave without paying a penny. The crunch is does UK want some sort of trade deal and pay membership fees or simply get out and trade on WTO rules.

I'm afraid current government and fecked up debate or lack of in Parliament leads to stalemate and rudderless leadership. So yes UK will leave more by mishap without any control and let business take care of them selves any way shape they can.

That will be the green light for UK business to leave UK and locate in EU borders.

20bn currently offered covers the transition period based on current agreements. So EU should accept that according Brexiters and say here is the free trade deal for you. Some Brexsitters must believe in lala land.


As it stands Norwegian model is about the best offer on the table for UK. Which was also Farage's pov before the blabber mouth got the shock of his life.

I strongly suspect Labour will lean towards such a deal them selves. :whistling


However, Libdems still have the best option to put it to a vote in Parliament or another referendum and this alternative is indeed gaining traction in Westminster.
 
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That will be the green light for UK business to leave UK and locate in EU borders.

Yes, I should beware of the fact that business has not left the UK, yet. Neither did Catalan businesses, until the very last minute, when it became more obvious that talks might fail. Within the last ten days, or so, the talk is that 2,000 businesses have gone. I hope that they have gone to Spain because. if not, the loss to the national economy will be devastating. The biggest ones, lead by Banco Sabadell, Caixabank, Bimbo, Gas Natural were the first. The tax revenues of these is considerable and, no matter what the outcome of coming talks, I doubt that Cataluña will be the same, again. Fortunately, the two banks have gone to Alicante and Valencia.

It must be noted that business will have to pay 20% more to trade with EU, if they are not in a member state.

Please, UK, watch your step.
 
Yes, I should beware of the fact that business has not left the UK, yet. Neither did Catalan businesses, until the very last minute, when it became more obvious that talks might fail. Within the last ten days, or so, the talk is that 2,000 businesses have gone. I hope that they have gone to Spain because. if not, the loss to the national economy will be devastating. The biggest ones, lead by Banco Sabadell, Caixabank, Bimbo, Gas Natural were the first. The tax revenues of these is considerable and, no matter what the outcome of coming talks, I doubt that Cataluña will be the same, again. Fortunately, the two banks have gone to Alicante and Valencia.

It must be noted that business will have to pay 20% more to trade with EU, if they are not in a member state.

Please, UK, watch your step.

Split, you keep talking about Brexit as if the UK is the cause of Brexit. Are you following other European countries and their issues as closely. It seems to me that the common denominator in all this European unrest is the EU itself.
 
The British public once again are being lied to and led astray by their politicians and treated as fodder. Deprived of accurate information and the facts. Parliament is kept out of the debate so unable to question or rationalise anything.

Let's look at what TM negoatiations are angling for?

We want access to free market and if you give us some assurances of what the future trade deal might look like, we'll see what we can give you?

Reading between the lines this is asking for free access subject to a one off payment. Effectively free access and membership justified by some self valued opinion, we buy more of your goods then we sell to you so its in your - EU's interests to keep us on board.

This is the crux of it.

Well look if you want something like this then just simply take up existing models whether be it the Swiss, Norwegian or just custom union membership?

Well no, coz we are British and we want something a little better, extra and special.

So the EU turns around and says WTF do you want. Be clear!

TM says but I just gave you a wonderful Florence speech and came to your feet to grovel and have a lovely dinner assuring you UK will meet and honour her committments.

So the EU says well you do speak some lovely words but we are not seeing anything on paper to help us negotiate. We can't negotiate on words they have to be proposals on paper.

UK says well we can't do that until you tell us what the trade agreement will look like.

Yep definitely a case of want to eat cake indeed.

As for all the hard core Brexiters, membership fees to a club doesn't make one own the club. So asking for assets back is just bloody minded. Investments in the EU or UK are all agreed and balanced. Hence, no side need compensate anyone.

UK quite entitled to leave without paying a penny. The crunch is does UK want some sort of trade deal and pay membership fees or simply get out and trade on WTO rules.

I'm afraid current government and fecked up debate or lack of in Parliament leads to stalemate and rudderless leadership. So yes UK will leave more by mishap without any control and let business take care of them selves any way shape they can.

That will be the green light for UK business to leave UK and locate in EU borders.

20bn currently offered covers the transition period based on current agreements. So EU should accept that according Brexiters and say here is the free trade deal for you. Some Brexsitters must believe in lala land.


As it stands Norwegian model is about the best offer on the table for UK. Which was also Farage's pov before the blabber mouth got the shock of his life.

I strongly suspect Labour will lean towards such a deal them selves. :whistling


However, Libdems still have the best option to put it to a vote in Parliament or another referendum and this alternative is indeed gaining traction in Westminster.

Wot a pile of utter tosh.

For starters, not everything about Brexit is economic.

The UK is the 5th largest economy, so of course we will demand a suitable deal.

No deal is also fine. It won't take long for the rest of Europe to come with the begging bowl, once they see the hardship it will cause in other European countries.

Then we have the issue of the UK doing very nicely and the rest of the EU exporting their unemployment problem to the UK.
As a direct consequence of this, the other member countries go backwards as their highly skilled desert their homeland in order to profit from the UK economy. Another direct consequence is that the UK cannot keep up with service provision because it cannot plan for ever increasing numbers using those services.
Another direct consequence is the housing stock, which is either unaffordable, or insufficient in number to house all these interlopers, which in turn affected the life chances of the indigenous population.
Another direct consequence is the number of unskilled economic migrants who have kept down the wages of the lower paid for decades. The real trouble started though when this mass pool of cheap labour started to affect the middle classes, skilled workers etc. That is why Brexit happened. The UK reached the tipping point where the majority of people said enough is enough.

And finally, yes we are entitled to our share of the assets. So you just watch what happens when / if a no deal is announced. The next moves will be through the courts to recover the assets. The fact that no one is talking about this presently is because the UK is trying to get the EU to see sense and to afford them the opportunity to continue trade without the need to play hard ball.
If the EU continues with the "hard ball" rhetoric, then don't be surprised if the UK walks away, ups the anti, and puts the boot in. In this scenario, the EU project will be finished for good.

Just a reminder again. Lib Dem revival ain't gonna happen. Last election saw vote share go down not up. There is no stopping Brexit, there is no public support to reverse Brexit, just a pile of obstruction and wishful thinking from those who think they know better than the majority.
 
Si 50 millions de personnes disent une bêtise, c'est quand même une bêtise.
--Anatole France
Typical tripe from the bourgeois elites dbp. That said, perhaps you and monsieur Fance are right: that's what separates us leavers from the remoaners - we're open minded to constructive debate.

If that number of people have a misguided belief then the only way to convince them that they're wrong is to let them have their way and to allow them to reap the (awful) consequences of their actions. Personally, I'm more than happy to take that chance and hold up my hand in shame if it all turns to poop. Right now, I'm extremely confident (more so than a year ago) that my decision to vote leave was the right one.

If you're right and all us Brexiteers are just hopeless misguided fools - we'll all end up eating humble pie in no time at all. On the other hand, do you think there's any possibility, even just the tiniest of one, that we're right and that the '50 millions de personnes' actually have their collective fingers on the pulse and know exactly what's going on? I know, it's a crazy thought, but even you must have considered it!
:p
Tim.
 
Si 50 millions de personnes disent une bêtise, c'est quand même une bêtise.

--Anatole France

There are more than 50 million people in the EU that don't support the EU.

(I just don't have the facts at hand to support that assertion though :whistling)

Wouldn't it be interesting to have an EU wide referendum?
 
The EU have admitted they have no plans for a no deal scenario. Their recovery is weak with flat interest rates and QE continuing until at least next September. Let's look at the core inflation rate for a moment

France 0.5
Italy 0.7
Spain 1.2
Germany 1.48
Poland 1.0
Netherlands 0.9
Ireland 0.1
Greece 0.5
Portugal 1.31

For the EU to be in a strong position to handle a hit of no deal they would need to be in a much better position to offset the hit. Even if we are just 2 percent of their Gdp, it's 2 percent they currently can't afford to give a haircut. They need every bit of growth they can get their paws on and therefore you can only conclude they are trying to show the rest of the EU what happens when you leave the boys club.

The UK holds 3rd place globally in measures of inventiveness behind Sweden and Switzerland. We are also ranked 7th for ease of doing business with only Denmark and Norway from Europe ahead of us. We are also the top leader globally in financial services and fintech. We have some of the top universities globally here and have a strong investment attraction globally. Point is we are not mudflaps that can be showcased as an example of what happens if you leave. We will tear the EU a new one when the 27 members see just how strong we have become and they will want some of that Anti EU pie as well.
 
Wot a pile of utter tosh.

For starters, not everything about Brexit is economic.

The UK is the 5th largest economy, so of course we will demand a suitable deal. Just like the TPP deal, USA didn't get what they want either and they are number 1. Get back in the queue!

No deal is also fine. It won't take long for the rest of Europe to come with the begging bowl, once they see the hardship it will cause in other European countries. No deal is worst deal. WTO will be green light for businesses to leave UK

Then we have the issue of the UK doing very nicely and the rest of the EU exporting their unemployment problem to the UK. That's a new one. What you mean is UK workers will not get out of bed unless they get the salary they want. Then you have the audacity to knock trade unions and shout out how great Thatcher was. You one big mixed up geezer.
As a direct consequence of this, the other member countries go backwards as their highly skilled desert their homeland in order to profit from the UK economy. Now you are a bleeding heart are you? UK I guess does not benefit from skilled labour and should hire numpties who want higher wages for less skills, brains and graft. Another direct consequence is that the UK cannot keep up with service provision because it cannot plan for ever increasing numbers using those services. Of course it can, simply that Tories prefer to give tax cuts instead of investing in public service. Majority of increase in costs down to elderly people living longer and more young children been taken into care and lack of homes because they've been sold off into the private sector.
Another direct consequence is the housing stock, which is either unaffordable, or insufficient in number to house all these interlopers, which in turn affected the life chances of the indigenous population.
Another direct consequence is the number of unskilled economic migrants who have kept down the wages of the lower paid for decades. The real trouble started though when this mass pool of cheap labour started to affect the middle classes, skilled workers etc. That is why Brexit happened. The UK reached the tipping point where the majority of people said enough is enough. How else do you think UK can compete with rest of the world?

And finally, yes we are entitled to our share of the assets. So you just watch what happens when / if a no deal is announced. The next moves will be through the courts to recover the assets. The fact that no one is talking about this presently is because the UK is trying to get the EU to see sense and to afford them the opportunity to continue trade without the need to play hard ball. Tosh. They'll both retreat to their own corner and WTO will lead to higher costs for non-productive and disruption of trade. UK will lose more than EU no doubt about it.
If the EU continues with the "hard ball" rhetoric, then don't be surprised if the UK walks away, ups the anti, and puts the boot in. In this scenario, the EU project will be finished for good. Yes by droping corporation tax leading to deterioration in fiscal policy and continued run down of public service. They'll also borrow more for infrastructure projects to bolster loss of trade but due to insufficient skilled labour continue to import migrants.

You are blinkered to facts and analysis and all based on hope and big talk that doesn't add up.


Just a reminder again. Lib Dem revival ain't gonna happen. Last election saw vote share go down not up. There is no stopping Brexit, there is no public support to reverse Brexit, just a pile of obstruction and wishful thinking from those who think they know better than the majority.

Parliament already talking about voting to retract article 50.

You better write to your MP. (y)
 
if i was the eu negotiators i would have the following strategy.

Start all negotiations (no blockers) but state on the contentious points that the agreement is dependent on a bill being settled with the amount being agreed at a later stage.This seems logical to me and is yet more evidence that suggests we are being made an example.


In the art of war there are similarities to moves the EU are making. Lets take a leaf out of our own book and hit them where they think we are bluffing. I would put money on them having a sudden change of mind. Drawing on the similarities of brexit where the shock outcome; the EU will suddenly realise the magnitude of derailment to their money printing recovery. They wont realise this through intelligent analysis,the euro is an example of their ability to decide policy. Their undoing will be the cries of discomfort from a large group of economies who face a >2% GDP hit that is sprinkled with job losses.
 
. Right now, I'm extremely confident (more so than a year ago) that my decision to vote leave was the right one.


Tim.


Yes, i remember you having a bit of a wobble on the eve of the election :LOL:

at least you came to your senses :clap:
 
Parliament already talking about voting to retract article 50.

You better write to your MP. (y)

They can talk all they like.
Article 50 won't be retracted.

Might be worth you checking out all the latest polls. Public position is hardening, especially because they don't think May is handling negotiations at all well. If she continues down this appeasement route then we could well see her swift removal.

JRM would be a very popular replacement as he is completely untarnished, but has put out the Brexit message that chimes with the public. Great orator, principled, clear vision. Everything that May is not.

We live in hope!:):clap::)
 
They can talk all they like.
Article 50 won't be retracted.

Might be worth you checking out all the latest polls. Public position is hardening, especially because they don't think May is handling negotiations at all well. If she continues down this appeasement route then we could well see her swift removal.

JRM would be a very popular replacement as he is completely untarnished, but has put out the Brexit message that chimes with the public. Great orator, principled, clear vision. Everything that May is not.

We live in hope!:):clap::)

Most people consider Moggy as a boring middle aged white man in a pin striped suit. With 7 children he might show some restraint too.
 
Most people consider Moggy as a boring middle aged white man in a pin striped suit. With 7 children he might show some restraint too.
He's a devout Catholic Pat - so I suspect restraint isn't the issue!
Tim.
 
Most people consider Moggy as a boring middle aged white man in a pin striped suit. With 7 children he might show some restraint too.

Many people consider him to be an intelligent and honest man who states what he believes. He is also extremely rich and doesn't require the state to subsidise his lifestyle or his seven children. Anyone who made such comments regarding someone emanating from the dregs of society and living entirely off benefits would be hounded by the self-righteous brigades and seen as an entirely unreasonable. JRM is already paying into the state system for things he doesn't use e.g. state education, so why should we denigrate him? He actually has a large and enthusiastic following so the issue isn't quite as clear-cut as some would believe. :)
 
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