'Big Traders' = Irrelevant ?

if you feel that you need to set a stop, you should not take the trade, since the market should move your way the moment you take a trade, and you should exit a trade when the market has not done as you anticipate - and that might be just that is does nothing -

Stevet, I think that's a bit of a dangerous statement, especially for any beginners. I understand what you are trying to get over, though, but it implies an inherent skill level.
 
ChartMan

i know what you mean

but is it dangerous? - if you really feel it is - delete that bit

BUT to me the concept of setting a stop is more dangerous than not setting a stop

i am assuming that no one sets a stop on their first trade as it is probably hard enough for them just to get that first trade on

the first time the market tanks against them - and they keep hesitating to get out - they then take a step back and go **** - what do i do about that!

so the magic idea of a "stop" appears and now they can go onto fame and fortune!

but the reality is that "stops" are just a small and expensive part of learning to trade - and there are so many on here that advocate them - that i feel my point is just balancing the others

to me the notion of using a stop is a dangerous concept

take an example of taking a trade on the s&p and holding it without a stop - what you gonna lose on a bad day - 10 pts maybe if you hold that position to the close - could be 30 if you were really unlucky with entry and the range of the day - but not been many 30 range days latley

but suppose someone is trying to establish long term positions and has a couple of 5pt stops hit - thats still 10 - but the person who was unprotected - knows they screwed up and may come to the conclusion their entry was wrong and they did not recognise it and get out

the person with 2 x 5pt losses from stops being hit - feels they have a safe strategy and goes to bed feeling like a top trader

which one is gonna try to learn about entries and how markets trend

perhaps a crap explanation or too simplified - but not sure how else to get this point across
 
Thanks for your prompt reply stevet.

I must say that I do agree with most of what you say in relation to short term trading. I would also point out that if I were in a position to trade full time then I would also trade short term as I agree that it offers the most profit potential. However, us little guys have to start somewhere, and using a small stake to trade part time is the way that many on here (I presume) learn about trading.

I would comment as follows on some of your points:-

the period of time of a trade is not directly related to the profit potential - if a market is range bound for days etc - repeated intra day trades in one day may offer far far greater profit potential than one longer term trade - it does not mean it would -

Agreed. A short term trader is better positioned to take advantage of this situation and therefore has more profit potential.

but i am just trying to say that there is no relation between profit expectancy and time period of the trade

Disagree here. This is where timescale comes in. If you trade a 1 min chart and a 1 day chart of the same instrument, your profit targets (ie number of points, pips, ticks whatever) would be much larger on the daily than the minute. Equally, your stop level, or amount you are prepared to see the market go against you before getting out will be far higher on the daily. You therefore trade with smaller positions on the daily. I am not trying to say that longer term trading has greater £'s or % of capital profit potential, merely that it requires larger points profit targets/ stop tolerances which reduces the risk of holding positions overnight etc as you are looking for much bigger moves than v short term trades.

stops are not a safety level that means if your stop does or does not get hit - that you traded safely and with skill

you have to figure that on every trade you take, that your stop will not get hit, so setting a stop prior to the trade is ignoring the fact that the market changes by the second

if you feel that you need to set a stop, you should not take the trade, since the market should move your way the moment you take a trade, and you should exit a trade when the market has not done as you anticipate - and that might be just that is does nothing -

Again, I agree that this is perfectly acceptable if you are an accomplished, disciplined, short term trader who is able to constantly monitor and exit positions at the touch of a button.
Personally, If I enter a position, I may not look at it again for several hours so I have a predetermined stop at a level which I consider that if the market moves to that position, I have made a wrong decision and I am taken out automatically. In these circumstances, I would never consider trading without a stop. I would also exit a trade if the market isn't doing as expected. However, timescale again means that this is much longer ie a couple of days rather than say a couple of minutes.

tradng longer term may feel more easy or more comfortable or less dangerous - but in reality - you are just kinda reducing the number of your trades you make, so that you feel with a wide stop that you are doing the right thing, but in effect you are not learing how to make a profit as you are not trading enough to learn, you are learning how to accrue losses safely!

and although it may appear losses accrue more slowly, the fact is that it is real difficult to make those or any losses back - hence in intra-day trading - you know you must make money each and everyday - and you also have the chance to

Agreed, losses and YES profits accrue more slowly as the number of trades is vastly reduced. That doesn't mean that longer term trading can only lead to losses, it just means that % profits can't be accrued as quickly if using a succesful methodology. Good profits can still be made though. Sure 500% plus per annum is extremely unlikely trading longer term but say 80 to 100% per annum I think is achievable. If I can do that, I may be able to join the big boys in a few years!

Where your aim to make money every day, my aim is to make money every month- again a timescale issue.

I think we agree on most things. The point I am trying to make is that the same (or at least very similar) trading methodologies can be applied to any time scale and produce profitable strategies and that short term, intra day trading of futures is not THE only way to trade successfuly?

Cheers for now

Darren
 
* - but i am just trying to say that there is no relation between profit expectancy and time period of the trade *

But there is , especially if you include RISK Management , the most vital element in this equation.
Over the very short term , with many trades , you could end up with 10 losses and only 3 wins of equi amount , net = - 7 .
Unless you are saying that you can beat the market over x no. of moves in a day - only way to do that would be to have no stops or ridiculously nig ones relation to your potential wins .

Sounds dangerous to me .

* if it is meant to be your only income, is longer term trading going to provide you with enough profit potential to support a good lifestyle ? *

somewhat irrelevant , most here = small traders aren't naive enough to think trading on 1500 quid cap is going to be a * good*
lifestyle . At most it's survival money but nonetheless that would still be excellent trading

* if you feel that you need to set a stop, you should not take the trade, since the market should move your way the moment you take a trade, and you should exit a trade when the market has not done as you anticipate *

yes , and this is done with a stop loss set at time of entry , o/w if the market moves violently agianst you and you have no stop - what are you going to do ? better to save your self the uncertainty and stress ( vital ) and have a stop loss as as said.


* you are being reactive to the market - setting a prior stop and sitting back is passive and is not a safe way to trade *

NEVER react to a market , you can't tell the future . always be anticipatory , that's what a SL is for , and it is 10x safer than w/o one.

* you are just kinda reducing the number of your trades you make, so that you feel with a wide stop that you are doing the right thing, but in effect you are not learing how to make a profit as you are not trading enough to learn, you are learning how to accrue losses safely! *

Trading less is a GOOD thing , and so is having to take losses slowly - means that you are losing LESS than you would if you are trading like a psycho and losing like on ! Called controlling risk . overtrading is bad go back to your MW books.


*hence in intra-day trading - you know you must make money each and everyday. *

You were doing good til this post but --- nobody knows the market and those who say so are kidding themselves. No one KNOWS they can make $ from the market over ANY time frame never mind any 1 day .
 
Good thread, solid arguments all round. The bottom line has to be the stop loss- yes/no has to depend on your trading circumstances . At the end of the day it will boil down to whether you feel comfortable with , or without them. I guess we can argue the case, rightly, for either option.
 
mma

"You were doing good til this post but --- nobody knows the market and those who say so are kidding themselves. No one KNOWS they can make $ from the market over ANY time frame never mind any 1 day ."

and this is kinda my point

if no one knows where the market is going to end up - on what basis would you enter a long term position

but what we do know is that at certain points during the day, markets make definite moves, and its best to get in at the start of a move - regardless of your time frame

it does not matter if you are entering a long term trade or short term trade - the entry point for a trade, if i was taking it for a minute or a year, would be the same

and the moment i take that trade - the price should move through the spread and put me near break ( figuring in brokerage) or even or a small profit

the way the market now moves either makes me close or stay with the position, but always closing by end of the main trading day

but i might open the same positon at the open of the next day and again hold it etc

but i dont want to take any loss in persuit of a any position (if i am in loss - i have screwed up and i want out)

the fact that i dont want to keep that position overnight is because who knows what is going to happen overnight and why would i give away profit i made with skill and hard work during the day, by gambling on what happens overnight when i am asleep ( sure i have made money overnight when i have kept positions open on purpose or by mistake, but i never considered that i made that money - i just considered i was lucky)

placing a stop and waiting for it to get hit is an expensive way to trade - and ironically you will find markets get pulled to your stop and bounce off them nicely once you get taken out
 
* we do know is that at certain points during the day, markets make definite moves, and its best to get in at the start of a move*

No way , nothing definite about the market , if you are scalping , it can still go against you - can drop say 55 pnts while you are long - now you hold a big loser and hope it rises again - INCREASING risk - a successful ST will never stomach this .

This is his shining virtue over a BSD .

* and the moment i take that trade - the price should move through the spread and put me near break ( figuring in brokerage) or even or a small profit*

yawn , so what ? everyone wants this , doesn't always happen.

* but i dont want to take any loss in persuit of a any position (if i am in loss - i have screwed up and i want out) *

same as above , a SL gives you much more protection than manually getting out and less STRESS.

* why would i give away profit i made with skill and hard work during the day, by gambling on what happens overnight when i am asleep *

For the same reason as you gamble intraday . Gamblers come in all time frames.

A successful ST only holds certain kinds of winners overnight and uses well placed SL's in certain markets - called RISK MANAGEMENT .
 
mma

i never ever hold a loser - and i never hold a positon that weakens - i am out right away and i move on - might reinstate the position or reverse - but never hold a loser

but i spend hours before the market opens studying price and update constantly during the market open - to make sure i am in tune with the market and the other traders

but there are other ways to trade i guess - but i have always avoided any strategy which means sitting on a loser in order to hit a projected price objective if the market turns

as it happens the company i trade for do not allow overnight positions - but then again most companies dont
 
It's distorting the facts to call having a SL - * sitting on your loser waiting for the stop to be hit * .

You could say the same thing about you , no matter how small a time you * wait * for - silly circular semantic arguement.

I have also traded for co's that don't allow o/n positions and I can say that they know zip about the market and are just gambling on hit and hope daytrades w/o SL's. market can tank 100's of points in a day in case you haven't noticed .

No thanks .
Golden rule for successful STs - take small certain losses and large uncertain wins and not vice versa - people should think about this before commenting.
 
mma

name one mature prop company that lets people use the prop company's money overnight?

i did know of one who stopped recently as they just got tired of losing money on traders waiting for trades to turn good the next day - an even bigger problem with options traders hoping that expiry price erosion would save them

and funnily enough, companies which let traders trade with a few million of the companies money kinda know what they are doing and they dont let people trade for them long who hold losing positions - but they do know how money can be made in markets for sure

i hope and trust you are speaking from experience of trading real size and succesfully in order to be so sure your opinion of markets makes any sense at all
 
the debate is now full circle - ridiculous .

A Stop loss will prevent one from * hoping trades turn good * , which can happen even if you DAYTRADE and even if you manually cut losses, which can even lead to greater loss due to the frequency of daytrades.

Many prop co's with * millions * have gone bust - neiderhoffer and LTCN to name 2 .

Which makes my point more relevant - A successful ST is more relevant to us because he is more conservative as he simply cannot be as reckless as a so called big trader.

what you say is irrelevant to most here , since you are a self confessed so called big timer . Your methods are simply irrelevant , your risk profile is too big . simple as that .

Unless you have any new points to make other than the stoploss vs. no stop loss debate, this is a dead end conversation. I think you have exhausted this point .
 
MMA,

Firstly you state that large traders are irrelevant to us small time boys because they are happy with 40% pa. Then you turn around and state that the risk profile of large traders is too big - which would, of course, infer that they are not trading for a safe(r) 40% pa.

Also, for what it's worth, I feel that your tone on these boards is confrontational and sarcastic. Surely, if you were any good, you would rather make money than pick arguments over semantics ??

The General.
 
mma

do you know what a prop company is?

i have noticed in the past that you seem to confuse what financial companies do and you just group them all together

neiderhoffer and LTCN were not prop companies - they were both long term trading funds with hundreds of millions of investors monies taking big gambles on market moves over long time periods

specifically thats what neiderhoffer did, but LTCM also employed a computerised methodology that they felt had them hedged in so many markets - that if one product dropped, the could always pull a profit in another market - but they got hit for a margin call and could not come up with the money, although the US goverment bailed them out - they shouldn't have - but they did

long term "safe" trading is promoted by businesses that trade other people's monies, such as big investment banks, pension funds etc and they are trading other peoples money and arrogantly ****ing those peoples money away

there are some long term traders i respect - and they are ones who have their own bucks in the funds, but they are finding it harder and harder and they utilise massive amounts to make small turns

long term traders let losses run on the basis of having stops to suit the risk/reward profile they have come up with, but their risk /reward is based on incorrect analysis assuming a profit target and then having an apparently appropirate stop loss level -but they forget that if their price target it wrong ( which it normally is) then there basic risk /reward analysis is floored and hence over time they loose

i dont utilise this type of risk/reward analysis as i dont let losses run ever - but i do take trades at points of market inefficiency or when i know that other key traders will also take the same position - thereby giving me a comfort level in making the trade
 
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Hi Stevet and Mma

Just wanted to say, as a fellow full time trader, how quite impressed I am that you manage to find the time and energy to argue the toss about these matters. I couldn't do it.
But both of you are right, both of you are wrong. There are as many ways of looking at the market as there are traders in the market.
You are never going to persuade the other that you are correct.

Mma -
'Fraid I have to agree with The General (above) and others. Have read all your comments on the different threads on these boards over the past few weeks and whether you realise it or not, whether it's intentional or not, I don't know, but your general tone does mark you out as a bit arrogant.

Just MHO....must dash.

Edited by ChartMan
I did originally put in something stronger than 'a bit arrogant' but ChartMan on reflection correctly tempered this.
Then again someone else in another thread has raised the question of whether Mma has recently engaged in any carnal activities, with the implicit inference that doing so would probably assist in bringing about a more balanced, calmer tone to these boards.
So i can only surmise that I am the obvious target of discrimination, victimisation, bullying, a veritable vandetta! I demand adjudiaction, judicial review, retribution. I will take this to court if necessary, sue those implicated, to the house of lords, european court of human rights, US supreme court, war tribunal, patent office, where-ever..........
:cheesy: ....... can you tell i'm bored?
 
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hjk

remember that posts are not just for the those conversing - but also for others to see and take a view and either learn or perhaps reinforce an opinion they already have

and comments do help to get a view of anyone who does have trading potential

and not sure there are different ways to look at specific parts of tradng - there might be different ways of perceiving what is said - but the markets and trading successfully is about the specifics
 
I agree with HJK and the General.

I know its hard to look at the written word and perceive what is said but a general tone is normally very easy to spot.
 
Dear general :

* Firstly you state that large traders are irrelevant to us small time boys because they are happy with 40% pa. Then you turn around and state that the risk profile of large traders is too big - which would, of course, infer that they are not trading for a safe(r) 40% pa. *

I agree : 40 % ? if that , and yes you are right re: risk profile , which is what I AM saying !

I never said I'm good , I don't have a need for net adulation . if I want to show what I can do I will do it in black and white when and IF the time comes.

A good opinion in my view challenges preconceived notions and if that is perceived as confrontation, then I think you have led a sheltered life.
 
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mma said:


if I want to show what I can do I will do it in black and white when and IF the time comes.


Well lets see something.I mean that very nicely as well.I would rather see some examples of various trading ideas than listen to constant chat.I'm sure others would as well. :)
 
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good , why don't you start by defining what you mean by trading ideas - an extremely loose term I'm sure you'll appreciate.
 
maybe posting some realtime trades??? i dunno...guess that's
the kinda thing that Naz meant.
 
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