Big Ben on the FTSE100

[bangkoker]

Anyone got their orders pending today? I have a 30 point range but the Market has not gone anywhere for 2 hours. With no surge of activity to come on from the US market being closed I am tempted to cancel orders if still floating at 1pm. Any views?

 

[Mr. G]

same - still sitting there waiting.

 

[pcrude]

Anyone got their orders pending today? I have a 30 point range but the Market has not gone anywhere for 2 hours. With no surge of activity to come on from the US market being closed I am tempted to cancel orders if still floating at 1pm. Any views?

I've done nothing today, and will keep it that way until tomorrow, precisely for that reason; it's like watching paint dry. Things may move, but without the US it's unlikely (though nothing would surprise me!)

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

yes it's going to be a funny old day for labour day. personally i'm going to keep my order in but as i said i'm only playing the big ben downside today. also i'm using a 6 point stop as i do with all my trades. from tomorrow i'm going to launch on the dow with a post 4pm uk time breakout.

i have the futures data for the ftse but am struggling to test it with my limited excel knowledge.

i'm point i'd like to add is that the the key to a long term strat is being able to stick to it. i think for that reason any tinkering done by an individual even though it might not add to the maths of the system, if it makes it more sustainable for the individual it can be a good thing. for example i always have a stop of 6 points for all my strats. it's a level that works for me. i get stopped a lot but my risk reward ratio is high.

as i've said before 10 points average for me per day is great, as little as 4 can double your money (using £1pp per each £1,000 trading capital).

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

Hi Stephen

I like the look of this and have done a quick check over the last three weeks. How do you define a plunge and do you have a time period for the 'test' ?

Thanks

Nigel

well defining is something i need to do. to my mind it's a move that takes the market from above to below (or vice versa) the 20ema but with some vigour! ie not a simple dance around the average. in the one i'm about to post the upside obviously ran out of steam at around 11pm (i notice how many moves end at the hour mark!)the move down from there looked like it had some force and the bounce to the 20ema again presented what i view to be a good risk reward trade. i enter with a stop of 6 and target of 12.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

as you can see i've taken this bounce on with 6 points and 12 points as per usual. i missed the first test but if this fails a bit more weakness could be unfolding. as you can see it's only a tester at £3pp and i'm going to cover it if we don't get below the 5445 area pretty easily. i don't like to see a 'floor' form before the test i like to see the test as more of an impulse rally up the 20ema.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

and the shot just before i closed for evens. the 20ema levelled out and it popping up seemed as likely as more downside.

 

[Nigel_T]

and the shot just before i closed for evens. the 20ema levelled out and it popping up seemed as likely as more downside.

Thanks for that Stephen, I had a quick look back and found it to work on a number of occasions but you're right when you say its spotting that vigour!

I've been following this most interesting thread on BB but have not jumped in yet and thought today would not be a good day to start given its Labor Day, maybe tomorrow.

 

[tomorton]

I put my orders in at 10, with a 28pt range, but the market is not behaving as it normally would - a breakout from the Big Ben range should have enough momentum not only to get through the boundary level but to follow on by at least an equally large amount. There's no sign of this today and neither order has triggered. I'm scratching my orders as this is not a typical market day so there's no reason to think BB has a better than 50:50 chance. I think I will start logging the delay between 10am and the first penetration of the BB boundary as a guide for days lke this.

Good luck if you're in. See you tomorrow.

 

[bangkoker]

Yeah had binned my order by 1ish when clear nothing was happening.😴

Only problem I have is will need to monitor my order a little as doing from phone and IG appear not to have a one cancels other function on Iphone platform👎 but can not see that being a big problem, as I can soon cancel redundant order.

Will try to review Dax sometime and also see how correlated to FTSE.. plus I see someone is trying a Dow version. All good:clover:

 

[tomorton]

Morning all.

My Big Ben orders, both long and short, entered this morning, with hefty 40pt range. ATR currently 78 so well within this but more chunky than we have seen lately. The short looks the one more likely to be triggered.

 

[bangkoker]

Short also, bouncing around just below entry level, did run down 10 pts or so at one point. Let's see what happens🙂

 

[bangkoker]

Well still in bouncing round about 10 pts down(higher) than starting price. May look for good opportunity to exit before US close

 

[bangkoker]

Closed out at pretty much same as in at. Lots 2-3 points with spread, leaving position open etc:whistling

 

[pcrude]

Closed out at pretty much same as in at. Lots 2-3 points with spread, leaving position open etc:whistling

Ditto. Sold 83.5 bought 83 ref Sep FTSE at 8.55

 

[tomorton]

Out for a point. But I'm still going to count it = 9/10 for +177pts.

See you tomorrow!

 

[bangkoker]

Out for a point. But I'm still going to count it = 9/10 for +177pts.

See you tomorrow!

Yeah was a day I would count as a scratch. Think direction was good as well. Good work

 

[tomorton]

What time does a successful break-out from the Big Ben range occur? A summary of the last 17 sessions -
>1800hrs = 1: stopped out
1600-1800 = 1: trade expired at US close
1400-1600 = 2: 1 hit target, 1 stopped out
1200-1400 = 3: 2 hit target, 1 expired
1000-1200 = 10: 6 hit target, 3 expired, 1 stopped out

Latest break-out that led to target being hit was between 1400 and 1430.

 

[bangkoker]

Very interesting, and a little surprised how late the hits still work.:clap:

Anyway I look forward to following this system, it is very easily, as once range decided and orders placed then not really any major decisions to make.

😆 Also if it transpired to be a 9/10 90+ pts a week system long term then I suggest we close the thread down now and keep quiet :cheesy:

Obviously more work to do yet but start of a structure, at the moment looking that after 14:00, which is double the window (of 8>10) then not worthwhile.. but at a 90% win rate at the moment looking good.. if this achieved over 55-60% would be good, especially if a trailing stop or way of extending profit could be achieved then all good.

Anyway this thread is helping me think and sorry that I have been posting quite so much, I am naturally chatty.:whistling

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

well done i'm still following with interest. didn't trade it yesterday and didn't go for it on the dow. i still have access to the liffe futures data if anyone can help me test it with excel. the problem i'm having is identifying the hour in the cell that contains date and time to test it. any excel geniuses watching get in touch.