August '04 Forex Trading

[fazalv]

Buk,

Just got in...
i have pm'd you.

 

[gus]

Looks interesting, I tried th VT platform but i wasn't too keen on it. Went for GFT instead. They are a little bit ahead of the game for the charting. With VT if your line goes down you knackered as the orders aren't held on their servers (3ish months ago).

GFT had a more stable platform and other facilities which suited me personally.

I hope VT works for you

Regards
NB

ps check out the VT forum they have a lot of useful trading system information.

My comments would echo NB's on the VT platform. I use RJOFX which has the same platform as GFT .... either one of them would be a better choice. But that's just my opinion. And without a doubt Dealbook could be improved!!

 

[gus]

Friday night analysis: This may sound a bit silly after a day like today, but I'm just reporting what the lines on my charts are saying -- for Monday August 9th the EURUSD must make a low below 2080 to avoid a confirmed BUY signal and GBPUSD must make a low below 8340 to avoid a confirmed BUYsignal.
On August 3rd the Euro gave an early warning buy signal, but it was such a weak one I ignored it. Sorry! In the future I will report even the weak ones on this board. Hope you all have a good weekend. Cheers

Reminder - This analysis could be wrong!!!
Looks higher could go lower.

 

[fazalv]

Behind a firewall today, cannot access the t2w forex room....grrrrrrrr.
Hope its going well.
Fib levels might play an important part today....

ps: +40 so far, runners at b/e....

Good luck all...

 

[darrenf]

As discussd in chat room earlier. Here is the transcript from the FXCM chat ref suspect price spikes etc. I think their reply is reasonable but I will be watching their quotes carefully around news times from now on. Having said that, I know many people suffered severe slippage with other brokers on Friday and as my orders were filled with zero slippage, I am still quite happy with the results I have had on my trades with FXCM.

FXCM}: Welcome to FXCM's Live Chat feature. You are now chatting with an FXCM representative. How can I help you?
you: Hello, firstly I'd like to ask a question about fx quote pricing
FXCM}: sure
you: I understand that FXCM (or any fx broker) acts as a market maker?
FXCM}: correct
you: So, effectively, your quotes are for "your own" market?


you: How do you ensure that your quotes are not out of tune with the general market. ie other fx brokers and interbank?


FXCM-: The FX market is an over the counter market
FXCM-: which means that there is no central exchange through which it is traded
you: OK
FXCM-: every bank and marketmaker makes its own prices, however it is in its interest to follow the market
FXCM-: in order to ensure clarity in the market
FXCM-: and to avoid getting hit on the wrong end of the price
FXCM-: there will be disrepancies between different banks and marketmakers
FXCM-: even within the interbank market
FXCM-: by only trading with the largest banks in the world, and the amount of volume that we trade, FXCM has access to the best prices
FXCM-: and hence is able to follow the interbank market very closely
you: So you would not expect to be more than 1 or 2 pips away from the majority of other market makers at any one time?
FXCM-: that is correct
FXCM-: during periods of heavy volatility you will see greater differences between marketmakers
FXCM-: however, generally, they should all be very similar prices
you: OK, a more specific question
FXCM-: as one of the largest online fx marketmakers, you will see that our prices track the interbank much better than most of our competitors, who do not have the size to get access to the best prices
FXCM-: sure
you: On friday, just before the release of the non farm payroll data, fxcm's eur/usd price dipped down to about 1.2032
you: I noticed a number of other FX brokers quotes went no where near that price
you: generally remaining above 1.2050
you: What would the reason for such a large discrepancy be?
FXCM-: Around these numbers, banks tend to quote very wide spreads
FXCM-: which can through off any one marketmaker
FXCM-: throw*
FXCM-: as FXCM deals through its banks, the prices can vary from the interbank market
FXCM-: as in such chaotic times, banks often widen the spread to compensate for the added volatility and risk
FXCM-: FXCM however, always keeps tight fixed spreads
you: OK, but would there be a specific reason that FXCM's quotes are 20+ pips differnt to a number of other major players ie gft, saxo, cmc who also keep fixed spreads
FXCM-: marketmakers get their prices from the banks that make up the interbank market
FXCM-: if those banks widen their spreads, this disrepancy is possible
you: OK. I do have an FXCM account and traded around this time
you: That spike took me into a short which got stopped out
you: I also had a long, which was successful
you: All prices were filled at my desired levels though.
FXCM-: In these situations, there is nothing we can do
FXCM-: our price is determined by the banks that we deal with
you: Can you reconfirm to me that you will guarantee stops are filled, even around nfpr times as I have been assured before
FXCM-: yes, I can confirm that we guarantee stops at all times
you: Ok that's reassuring
you: I have heard people talking about that spike down being a stop running excersise by fxcm on account of you being the only (apparent) player where this occured?
you: What do you say to this?
FXCM-: It was not a stop running exercise, we are the largest online marketmaker, and we do not resort to these tactics
FXCM-: banks were quoting spreads of 50-200 pips
FXCM-: which can throw off any marketmaker
FXCM-: you will see these sort of situations develop in this type of over-the-counter market
you: OK. I was generally happy with my result on friday. Your guaranteed stops still served me well
you: and I profited
you: Thanks for taking the time to explain
FXCM-: I am glad to hear that
FXCM-: my pleasure
you: Thanks for now
FXCM-: if you have any more questions, don't hesitate to come back, my name is Steven
you: Thanks very much

Hope this is of use.

Darren

 

[JP1966]

I am afraid it is false. I know of many people who deal with FXCM and they had slippages of around 100 pips on Friday . They have told them that fills and stops are not guaranteed.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Something for you all to mull over...

Finally GFT offer 1 minute charts, so i can scalp myself some goodies using 1 and 5 minute charts.

GBP chart shows my set up for this afternoon.
15 mn chart showed 1-2-3 target (which i missed) @ 8405 and expecting a sell off there.

1 minute chart shows price stall at that point (and a favourite round number trade)
Trend break & macd divergence to confirm turn
green circle for entry took profit on +10 (all i was going for)
With hind sight could have stayed with trend for a lot more.

Next entry, again using macd divergence, early entry long off the high of Doji bari (green circle) or on trend break.
Other long reasons would have been pivot reaction and also previous s/r area. I never took this particular trade as missed early entry as i was on the phone.

I intend to scalp trade price & macd divergences confirmation off s/r area's in this way and looks promising when combined with my other chart analysis and trading on other time frames.

Enjoy

Happy trading

NB

 

[gus]

Friday night analysis: This may sound a bit silly after a day like today, but I'm just reporting what the lines on my charts are saying -- for Monday August 9th the EURUSD must make a low below 2080 to avoid a confirmed BUY signal and GBPUSD must make a low below 8340 to avoid a confirmed BUYsignal.
On August 3rd the Euro gave an early warning buy signal, but it was such a weak one I ignored it. Sorry! In the future I will report even the weak ones on this board. Hope you all have a good weekend. Cheers

Reminder - This analysis could be wrong!!!
Looks higher could go lower.

Tuesday Aug 10 -- when the day wound to a close and I did my charts I found us to still be on confirmed Buy signals on both Euro & Cable ...... and as I had another chance to re-enter a long on cable i bought 8255. May add on a pullback. See most of you in the chat room tomorrow..

 

[gus]

After the above entry on Cable i added to that position & went short USDJPY @ 111.36
with stops & profit targets set I went to bed. This morning I'm flat across the board having made some on the JPY trade & stopped out on Cable. Today's High on Cable must be above 8380 to avoid a confirmed sell signal I didn't see that last night. Looks unlikely, I may front run that signal and go short somewhere today.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

FX traders social

Hi folks

I placed the FX traders meet in the news board and not the socials board by mistake.

Ive asked for it to be placed on the calender.

Regards
NB

 

[gus]

Wednesday 5:45pm EST in O h i O and I did get the confirmed sell signal as I reported just above, and just went short a bit ago @8300

Reminder: This analysis could be wrong!!!
Looks lower could go higher

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Jonap

As requested teh trade called in the chat room yesterday;

Coming into the days session I had already established a trend line and a parallel channel from the 60 minutes chart which is what you can see drawn on the chart.

As the trend was down I was looking for a short and indication that the price was turning.
This time this signal came from a spinning top with an entry @ 1.8075 with a stop at 90. Later weight was added to the trade when the 60 min chart completed a doji bang on the trend line and confirmed by the price moving through 55.
Target was the support from the possible channel.
Banked 100pips at that level and called it a day. Others may have stayed in on that trade for more.

Hope this helps you
NB

 

[jonap]

Yes many thanks, now I see.
Regards J

 

[gus]

Sneaking in a last post for August!

I'm back!!! - Didn't go anywhere but i'm back anyway,lol..........and what's up with this thread??
no-ones posted much.

Ok, there is still 5 hours left in August for me to sneak in a post -

EURJPY gave a confirmed buy signal today...my posts are informational only! as in 'looks higher could go lower'

Woops had to edit this to add that EURUSD on Sept 1st must make a low below 2056 to avoid a confirmed buy signal - look rather unlikely. Sorry mates but no signal yet on cable.