anyone trading cable 2013 - lets roll

[Sir Pond Life Dreg]

Nope. A margin call would be the end of the game. Talking about a stop when there is no game is not very useful.




Nope. That would be a hedge, no ?

Nope.

 

[Shakone]

I don't use stop. There is something much better, and it's not a hedge. See if you can work out what it is ? No, it's not coin tossing either. Yes, I like your pyramid. It's all interconnected.

Averaging down.

 

[counter_violent]

No one knows what will happen next - but anyone looking at those charts would say that is the least probable of 4 possible scenarios In order of highest probability-they are:

1. Price will make more downside progress possibly after a pullback
2. The low will hold and price will go sideways in a range consolidation
3. Price will seek out stops under the 5673 low before a move to the upside.
4. Price will reverse from the current low and turn bullish on successively higher t/f's - ie Friday's move down was a 'shake out.'

Anything can happen and you may be right, - the least probable of those 4 scenarios (no.4 - that you effectively outline in your post) may play out but I think you gotta understand what tech analysis indicates to us about the probabilities. By the way I have no axe to grind here - I as always, ended the week flat.

Also, in a circa $440Bln / day market like gbpusd - Im interested in who you think specifically is doing the ' manipulating ? '

Thanks,

G/L

Option 2 looks likely however, I wouldn't be surprized to see a fake break of the base trendline before it resumes it's horizontal direction.

A typical break from a symmetrical triangle like this one would occur approx 2/3 along it's Length. This has not happened, and so from past experience I would say there is a good possibility that price may continue sideways in an ever decreasing range (fizzle out) before gradually starting to increase in range before any significant directional break out.

Timescale...2 maybe 3 years

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Where is Mr "momentum" Charts when you need him ? He should join the armchair cable experts to offer a view then we can spin the roulette wheel and see who's the winner. I am committed to the long side still. Although I will add no more until I see some rail track buffers hit first. Although I may add probes just to annoy the manipulators. They don't know where my stop is. It'd drive them nuts.

 

[counter_violent]

Where is Mr "momentum" Charts when you need him ? He should join the armchair cable experts to offer a view then we can spin the roulette wheel and see who's the winner. I am committed to the long side still. Although I will add no more until I see some rail track buffers hit first. Although I may add probes just to annoy the manipulators. They don't know where my stop is. It'd drive them nuts.

Nobody cares....next !

 

[cablemonster]

Has the lulz boat sailed.

 

[VielGeld]

Hmm... Mind if I join the Cable party?

I'm of the opinion that there's more downside to this baby. At least, that's how I'll be playing it this week.

 

[cablemonster]

Hmm... Mind if I join the Cable party?

I'm of the opinion that there's more downside to this baby. At least, that's how I'll be playing it this week.

Feel free mate this thread is about all things cable. Lets roll

 

[the hare]

I like your pyramid..

Yes, I thought the OMG pyramid / lolcano was quite appropriate.

 

[bbmac]

It is not about me being right or wrong - I haven't said what I think price will do next ! - I explicitly said that, like everyone else, I don't know. - All I can do from the prevailing TA I use is adjudge the greater probability whether or not it actually plays out. I do this based on the premis that underpins TA, (simply put that what happened in the past can trepeat in the future.) In my post I simply listed in descending order of probability 4 scenarios of what might happen. What actually happens next will happen. Using a Trading Edge to trade with has a great benefit over those that think they have to know what happens next to make money, and think it is about being right or wrong, and worse - get their ego all twisted up in it (we see this so often on countless threads etc..)- I don't have to know what will happen next to make money and I don't have to have an opinion of what will happen - in fact having an opinion and getting wed to it is counter-productive to the essential principle of a trading edge. Outlining possible scenarios in order of probability on the basis of the TA can however be useful and as always it is advisable to trade what you see not what you think. The market doesn't care what we think.

G/L

I know from experience unusual sharp moves not supported by fundamental, or even technical, reasons are invariably manipulations and subject to sharp reversals. I reckon TA should discount those as noise. This is why I suggest waiting for the open before drawing a conclusion. If it continues down on open, you will have been proven right.

I just find it odd that they did not knock out the stops on Friday when we all know there is a whole load there. The only reason why they did that, I can see, is they still want to keep some of the bulls on board. If those bulls are mislead into believing the trend is turning down, they will go against the the intention of the manipulators, which is to push the price higher - of course after catching a bunch of bears first for a game of shooting fish in a barrel at a later point.

I believe the $bln upon $bln of volume is the manipulator 'trading' with itself. I further believe it is cost free for it to do that. The manipulator could be a single bank or a group of banks who are there to pick up free money.

Just be patient. We will see tomorrow night exactly what the game is. It is natural to believe the 'momentum' will carry it lower. I don't think it will happen. This is where TA will fail and the banks will pick up more free money.

Feel free to grind the axe or stick the knife in. If it's that easy, everyone would be doing it. It's all a game, I tell ya.

 

[cablemonster]

Well said and totally concur.

It is not about me being right or wrong - I haven't said what I think price will do next ! - I explicitly said that, like everyone else, I don't know. - All I can do from the prevailing TA I use is adjudge the greater probability whether or not it actually plays out. I do this based on the premis that underpins TA, (simply put that what happened in the past can trepeat in the future.) In my post I simply listed in descending order of probability 4 scenarios of what might happen. What actually happens next will happen. Using a Trading Edge to trade with has a great benefit over those that think they have to know what happens next to make money, and think it is about being right or wrong, and worse - get their ego all twisted up in it (we see this so often on countless threads etc..)- I don't have to know what will happen next to make money and I don't have to have an opinion of what will happen - in fact having an opinion and getting wed to it is counter-productive to the essential principle of a trading edge. Outlining possible scenarios in order of probability on the basis of the TA can however be useful and as always it is advisable to trade what you see not what you think. The market doesn't care what we think.

G/L

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I haven't said what I think price will do next !

Then I hope you will say it at some point, along with all who have taken an interest so far. That way we get to see how people will do. In a mostly directional endeavour like trading, like most things in life, you have got to have some convictions on the direction. Otherwise you would be going everywhere but end up nowhere.

This is my analysis of the excuses so far:

The hare: can't say because I might get 10 loosers in a row

Bbmac: can't say because I am covering all angles and don't want to favour any particular one

Barjon: can't say because I don't do cable (as if doing cable is beyond his 30 years of experience)

CV: can't say because busy with wall street bingo still

Mr Chart: can't say because not turning up and don't care if the momentum is off the scale

 

[bbmac]

I can't say what will happen next beacuse I DON'T KNOW - what part of that don't you understand ? ...it's not about having conviction...I AM FLAT...but even if I were in a position long or short - I still wouldn't know what was going to happen...that is the point - I don't know, nor do you, and nor does anyone - and we are in good company because unless/unil you/I get the trading plans of every market participant we cannot ever know...and I can't see this happening anyime soon...can you ?

To all those newbies reading this - be assured BeginnerJoe is demonstrating why so money lose in the end - he thinks you have to know what is going to happen next to make money - ie he thinks he knows wghereas I can only guage what is most probable and what is least probable....and that if you won't say what will happen next (cause you don't know Doh !) that somehowt you're a convictionless wuss ! lol. BeginnerJoe - you are aptly named and you will forever be a beginner until/unless you grasp this.

G/L

Then I hope you will say it at some point, along with all who have taken an interest so far. That way we get to see how people will do. In a mostly directional endeavour like trading, like most things in life, you have got to have some convictions on the direction. Otherwise you would be going everywhere but end up nowhere.

This is my analysis of the excuses so far:

The hare: can't say because I might get 10 loosers in a row

Bbmac: can't say because I am covering all angles and don't want to favour any particular one

Barjon: can't say because I don't do cable (as if doing cable is beyond his 30 years of experience)

CV: can't say because busy with wall street bingo still

Mr Chart: can't say because not turning up and don't care if the momentum is off the scale

 

[VielGeld]

Agreed, Mac. Myself, all I'm seeing in the market is a very strong bull (bear in some) market and that's what I'm playing. But even so, I have to admit cutting profits early on last week's awesome moves because I had no idea it would go further.

But that said, and if you don't mind revealing as much, what would you say is your edge (since you always say having an edge is important)?

 

[barjon]

................ In a mostly directional endeavour like trading, like most things in life, you have got to have some convictions on the direction......................

That assertion is nonsense, Joe. What we actually do is say that if price does this we will do that because our experience tells us that there is a reasonably decent chance that it will move favourably. If it does, we seek to obtain the advantage we want from it. If it doesn't we try to limit the disadvantage. That's a far cry from "conviction".

 

[bbmac]

I have discussed the elements that make up my trading edge on many threads on this forum over the last 10 years and they are a matter of public record. I'm sure you understand that I won't be revealing intellectual property on an open forum in respect of the specific edge itself and in any event I don't want to hijack this thread which is CM's thread and supposed to be about discussion of Cable.

G/L

Agreed, Mac. Myself, all I'm seeing in the market is a very strong bull (bear in some) market and that's what I'm playing. But even so, I have to admit cutting profits early on last week's awesome moves because I had no idea it would go further.

But that said, and if you don't mind revealing as much, what would you say is your edge (since you always say having an edge is important)?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

That assertion is nonsense, Joe. What we actually do is say that if price does this we will do that because our experience tells us that there is a reasonably decent chance that it will move favourably. If it does, we seek to obtain the advantage we want from it. If it doesn't we try to limit the disadvantage. That's a far cry from "conviction".

Conviction in whatever random analysis you use is what allows you to take a trade. If you had no conviction that it will more likely to be a winner than loser, you wouldn't be taking the trade. I never said conviction is always right. In any case, losing is as much a part of trading as winning. So wrong convictions is perfectly normal. The trouble starts when you have no conviction, that's when you will go nowhere.

See x-jpy going into the stratosphere and no one here is on it ? That's from lack of conviction. When cable goes the same way, the lack of conviction will determine where people will be at - always scalping for that 20 pips. That's a looser approach.

 

[cablemonster]

see attached 2 screenshots showing how retail traders through Oanda are positioned into the weekly open for cable. 61% of them are long!!!! kinell I wouldnt want to be long here over the weekend, not in a short term / medium term / long term trade, not in any timeframe.

are any of those your trades joe?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

are any of those your trades joe?

Sure, maybe a hundred of those positions are mine.

 

[Talbs!]

Cable will go lower in BOE this week , then it's anybody's guess, that's my view anyway