Anyone shorting the Dow Jones? pt 2

[2be]

Stopped at 80, it will probs fall 5000 points now lol... gonna go for food and alcohol, just lost a substantial sum

I am very sorry to hear that.
Take a break before you trade and compose yourself.
Market has been very choppy recently and having a strong opinion in such times can work against you.
I like Soros starting point in his trading philosophy , that it is impossible for humans to comprehend the market. What is left to us is to manage risk/s.

 

[jlian]

There is nothing to understand about the markets. You only have to choose a reliable trading system and to follow it, the way a soldier execute commands. To pick such you have to successfully test it first, without real funds, and then go deep. Papertrade it first for some time.

 

[SlowlyButSurely]

Stopped at 80, it will probs fall 5000 points now lol... gonna go for food and alcohol, just lost a substantial sum

For what it's worth probably for the best mate. I think it will carry on like I said...not for the right reasons mind you (consumers buying goods, companies doing well) but just due to inflation and QE being pumped out by the Fed etc

 

[rawrschach]

So your thinking to just pull out and take your losses??? Realistically thought its bounds to come down or not? even just to the 14700 level?

Whats the reversal i keep hearing about ?

Come on north korea needs to give us a scare!!

lul

 

[rawrschach]

here's a tip. Cut your loss. Then sell when the news starts telling you to buy the market.

 

[Cole Hann]

Just went long the DOW (YM) @ 14801.

Markets don't turn on a dime.

 

[carlosd]

I think the people who are shorting this are doing so in the hope they pick the top.
There is no reversal pattern, no lower highs, nothing to indicate a short imho.
I can count on one hand all the shorts I have taken this year and they probably cancel each other out in terms of wins and losses, where as the longs have just kept on running.
Personally I think this has been the easiest market to trade for a long time, the dips have been the place to play this market, they just give another entry for a long and another run up which helps managing the trade so easy with trailing stops that this market really has been the gift that keeps on giving, so long may it continue imo.
Sure we're gonna get down days, we will more then likely get one in the next couple of days considering the run up we have had this week, but I just treat them as a pull back and look for a long entry and ride it back up I know it wont last but why not make the most of it while its there.
When the Dow tops out, it will give plenty of indication, even through the financial crash in 2008 it took a whole year to hit the lows of 2009, so there were plenty of opportunities to short it, so if it tumbles again from here it isn't going to do it in a day a week or a month, it will give plenty of shorting opportunities for people to get in, until then just go with the flow.
Besides, the FED has more money then all of us put together.

:cheesy:

 

[Cole Hann]

I think the people who are shorting this are doing so in the hope they pick the top.
There is no reversal pattern, no lower highs, nothing to indicate a short imho.
I can count on one hand all the shorts I have taken this year and they probably cancel each other out in terms of wins and losses, where as the longs have just kept on running.
Personally I think this has been the easiest market to trade for a long time, the dips have been the place to play this market, they just give another entry for a long and another run up which helps managing the trade so easy with trailing stops that this market really has been the gift that keeps on giving, so long may it continue imo.
Sure we're gonna get down days, we will more then likely get one in the next couple of days considering the run up we have had this week, but I just treat them as a pull back and look for a long entry and ride it back up I know it wont last but why not make the most of it while its there.
When the Dow tops out, it will give plenty of indication, even through the financial crash in 2008 it took a whole year to hit the lows of 2009, so there were plenty of opportunities to short it, so if it tumbles again from here it isn't going to do it in a day a week or a month, it will give plenty of shorting opportunities for people to get in, until then just go with the flow.
Besides, the FED has more money then all of us put together.

:cheesy:

ya. why look for a top during bullruns, or a bottom bearruns? the low fruit ie $ is in the MIDDLE of each leg, not at extreme ends.

 

[carlosd]

ya. why look for a top during bullruns, or a bottom bearruns? the low fruit ie $ is in the MIDDLE of each leg, not at extreme ends.

Exactly, it comes down to psychology, people are afraid they will miss the top, not seeing that what they are really missing is the bit in between the top and the bottom.

 

[malaguti]

ya. why look for a top during bullruns, or a bottom bearruns? the low fruit ie $ is in the MIDDLE of each leg, not at extreme ends.

yeah like you know where the middle is..trading really is that simple

 

[Vasco da Banana]

I'm shorting it all the way up to 15000.

 

[2be]

I'm shorting it all the way up to 15000.

There is not that long to go

 

[Cole Hann]

yeah like you know where the middle is..trading really is that simple

Not that simple no. But almost.

Why would you WANT to expend all effort & resources picking a top or bottom?

MY time is better spent taking the middle out of each leg up. That's just me..:cheesy:

 

[Vasco da Banana]

There is not that long to go

Yes, then I'll go long all the way back to 13,000.

 

[Cole Hann]

Yes, then I'll go long all the way back to 13,000.

haha, like your humor

 

[malaguti]

Not that simple no. But almost.

Why would you WANT to expend all effort & resources picking a top or bottom?

MY time is better spent taking the middle out of each leg up. That's just me..:cheesy:

i dont Cole, but in order to get the middle, means you must know when the beginning or end is. you can only know you were in the middle of something when its over. All just hindisight.

 

[Cole Hann]

i dont Cole, but in order to get the middle, means you must know when the beginning or end is. you can only know you were in the middle of something when its over. All just hindisight.

Hmm. You might be right, intellectually. Must I know end of each extreme, or is it enough to know the dominant trend? Top picking during an obvious lengthy bullrun is fraught with danger & failure. Why not just pick BOTTOMS during a bullrun, and TOPS when the BEAR shows? If you must be "right" at least place odds in your favor, right?

 

[malaguti]

Hmm. You might be right, intellectually. Must I know end of each extreme, or is it enough to know the dominant trend? Top picking during an obvious lengthy bullrun is fraught with danger & failure. Why not just pick BOTTOMS during a bullrun, and TOPS when the BEAR shows? If you must be "right" at least place odds in your favor, right?

thats where I agree with you completely

 

[Cole Hann]

thats where I agree with you completely

At ONE precise point the bull will die. When will we know that and stop buying bottoms? I understand & wrestle with these issues every day as a trader. You are saying (if i might be so bold) how do you know when one trend is over and another begins? That is THE question.

My answer: like "porn" I know when i see it.

 

[rawrschach]

ffs why is spanish banned again?