BBB was far too feisty to be a bloke
but agree its a shame she was banned, especially as she made many more good calls than 99.5% of anyone else on this forum
perhaps T2W can just ban her to the sin bin for a wk or two?
The Dow's just hit some major supports, but possibly will hit its other at 14,330
but would only take long signals from here, rather than support buys, as the Dow and FTSE are in a semi Wkly downtrend contrary to how it looks overall
my guesstimate is price will re-fall to 14,330 approx, early next wk and then re-rise and double top at the all time highs ready for the May selloff
but maybe wrong,
but would only take long signals from here, rather than support buys, as the Dow and FTSE are in a semi Wkly downtrend contrary to how it looks overall
my guesstimate is price will re-fall to 14,330 approx, early next wk and then re-rise and double top at the all time highs ready for the May selloff
but maybe wrong,
Lee Shepherd
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Hello Kitbag,
Firstly I'll help you with a bit of mentality that will hold you in good stead for the future:
Forget the fact that its ONLY £1pp you are betting. This is totally immaterial.
Instead concentrate on points only and ratio's.
Also except (sorry mate but you wont like this), you do not know where the market is going, nor will you ever know.
Ignore articles unless you have read the other side to them and only before you have made your trade. Otherwise you become biased and only see what you want to see once in a position.
Its good to have a belief in your trade/s, in fact it is crucial. However, be prepared to be wrong - do not worry about being wrong, this is a part of life and certainly a big part in trading. Set stops, set targets and abide by them. If you have these in place and are feeling comfortable then do not worry. Let them play out and see who wins on this occasion, it will either be you or the market.
Have a good weekend,
Lee
kitbag1984
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Lee thanks. A e really important points there.
So if i try and take a dispassionate look at my trade:
I opened the position on the 7th of march at 14084. The real world price stood at 14329.
The Dow closed at 14565 on Friday meaning a running loss of around £250 (there is a 21 point spread).
The reality is that I should have set my stop a lot tighter but I didn't hence the loss at the moment. But of I look at the Dow today I still see the same issues as last month.
One of my rules is always to go with the trend and whilst the overall tend is upwards, the last four days have showed a lower close.
I was tempted to go with setting my loss at the all time high but instead with the trend now downwards I think I will trail my stops lower and lower.
Hopefully that seems a sensible solution?
So if i try and take a dispassionate look at my trade:
I opened the position on the 7th of march at 14084. The real world price stood at 14329.
The Dow closed at 14565 on Friday meaning a running loss of around £250 (there is a 21 point spread).
The reality is that I should have set my stop a lot tighter but I didn't hence the loss at the moment. But of I look at the Dow today I still see the same issues as last month.
One of my rules is always to go with the trend and whilst the overall tend is upwards, the last four days have showed a lower close.
I was tempted to go with setting my loss at the all time high but instead with the trend now downwards I think I will trail my stops lower and lower.
Hopefully that seems a sensible solution?
It is too early to lower your stop, for the moment. I think DJ entered Friday to a corrective phase but it might return to the 14600 area.
Additionally, putting your stop to 14690 requires that you have peace within yourself. That you are now sure that you might take 606 pips of loss.
That includes the probability that the rise from November could end at the 14700/800 area, but you are not going to blame yourself or anyone else that you didn't rise your stop 100 points higher. Because there is always the chance that DJ is guided directly to 15.000. I hope that you understand my point of view.
Additionally, putting your stop to 14690 requires that you have peace within yourself. That you are now sure that you might take 606 pips of loss.
That includes the probability that the rise from November could end at the 14700/800 area, but you are not going to blame yourself or anyone else that you didn't rise your stop 100 points higher. Because there is always the chance that DJ is guided directly to 15.000. I hope that you understand my point of view.
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Lee Shepherd
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Hi Kitbag,
I cannot and will not comment directly on the trade in play, nor should anyone else as no one knows what will happen next, as previously stated you will also have conflicts of interest. Only you can make this decision.
I will only discuss the issue at hand and that is you need to get something sorted out which is why we are here in the first place. A rigid plan would put your mind at ease and prevent you from second guessing, asking others or searching for answers in news feeds or graphs.
Now.....the only way out of a tricky situation is to do just that, get out of it. In your career of trading you will come to understand that taking losses is THE HARDEST thing to do. Anyone can take a profit whether it be a few quid or multiple thousands but when it comes to chopping a losing trade, this is where the skill comes in.
The moment any trader steps outside of the rules/guidelines then all trades should be chopped and trading should cease immediately. Keep it simple.
Once you have a solid plan in place and one in which you believe in and have full trust in then you will find that your emotions disappear. Think of an owner of a gambling house, the owner does not worry about the person winning money at the table (assuming its won legally), nor do they worry about the losers, they just keep an eye on the bottom line or the overall figures and over a set period of time.
Keep this in mind, if the trade goes good for you then in your mind you would have done the right thing, if it goes against you then you'll be thinking otherwise. Either way, a trading plan is crucial.
Lee
samspade79
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When the last bears will be off the game, then the market will change course
Can't be any bears left now, you need deep pockets for these rises.
2be
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I am totally committed to short DOW even put a market order at 16025, so far the bulls are reigning pretty well and I cannot do anything but to trade what I see.
By the way that market order is small with a hard SL at 16037, just in case.
At 15925 I will add to this short position and take profits around 6800.
Seriously, shorting Wall Street atm is not the best idea, the fact is that is is going up and having a different opinion, though possibly correct will not change this market direction for the time being. Even Bernanke himself not that long ago said that the equities have a "nominal" value, and as long as fresh money is printed it will be so for a long time to come. Crash will certainly come but before that happens there are likely to be substantial new highs.
Do not loose your shirt going against the market.
I will go short only after a good confirmation, including a divergence between the PA and RSI on Weekly TF/ Daily TF, and possibly assisted by some harmonic pattern, Fibs and so on.
As for now DOW converted into the fourth quarter, with 15000 just around the corner.
Happy trading to all.
2be
It is a classic case of the trend being your friend and trading what you see rather than what you know.
When the Dow basically sliced through its all time high on 5th March like knife through butter and there was a failure of the three bar rule, it was clear that the bulls were in control. A three bar rule is basically a filter for false break out and essentially if there is a breakout and price is unable to close below the breakout within three bars, the breakout is likely not a trap. The Dow is now in blue sky territory and likely a complete wash out is required to clear out all shorts and exhaust all buyers before a major reversal is in.
Good luck for those still holding shorts.
When the Dow basically sliced through its all time high on 5th March like knife through butter and there was a failure of the three bar rule, it was clear that the bulls were in control. A three bar rule is basically a filter for false break out and essentially if there is a breakout and price is unable to close below the breakout within three bars, the breakout is likely not a trap. The Dow is now in blue sky territory and likely a complete wash out is required to clear out all shorts and exhaust all buyers before a major reversal is in.
Good luck for those still holding shorts.
Doomberg
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Hola traders, not been online much and god i'm glad i didn't try holding any Dow short trades for a long time... my heart goes out to any who have been short throughout this thread. Anyway i'm back in, open 14797 stop 14837
Hope you are all well, i think this is worth a 40p risk for a 100-200p target
GLA, who's long and who's short? :clover:
Hope you are all well, i think this is worth a 40p risk for a 100-200p target
GLA, who's long and who's short? :clover:
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brewski1984
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How much are you guys expecting it to fall when/if it does?
The "three bar rule" includes the breakout bar or it is referred to the three that follow after? thx
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