samspade79
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Ym ?
seems that way
but newtons 1st law of motion states "what goes up must come down"
And the Euro and GBP and possibly Gold have just started a new downtrend
Aussie already in a downtrend / Oil possibly ??
and Dow and S+P very nr major resistance after the ridiculous rallys
Dollar hit major support last week and bounced - maybe just needs a double bottom and indices double top etc
but what ive learn't is - shorting rally's must be extremely limited until many filters and indicators ALL line up - as we've all found out, its just not worth it
and shorting when below a SMA or EMA is possibly the simplest filter of all - especially the 200EMA as its the most used indicator
ie above the 200EMAs is bullish - below is bearish
so the waiting continues
I just get this feeling something really big is brewing geopolitically or even debt-related within the Eurozone. Of course the market always seems to climb this wall of fear until such a black swan strikes out of nowhere. I've been stopped out a few times shorting the Dow & Nasdaq in recent months, so I think I'll just sit on the sidelines for now and stop fighting these rigged markets.
Lee Shepherd
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lol, people keep stabbing in the dark. Eventually someone is going to hit the board with this and claim they 'knew'.
Bear in mind (lol, bear), this thread was created on the 18th January 2013 when the dow was at 13500. Since then it has risen over 1,700 points to hit another all time high of 15260 as I type.
When everyone has finished making their predictions about shorting it and have lost a sh1t load of money, they may just start going with the trend.....and guess what.......
This is when it breaks and catches us all out. Until then, the trend is our friend until the bend at the end.
Play it long or sit it out until signs appear.
Lee
The trend is still up and any potential short set up is still a counter trend opportunity - higher risk with limited reward.
Picking tops is still a bragging stunt rather than a professional approach unless you are a major institutional player attempting to offload a large position to rebalance risk.
Picking tops is still a bragging stunt rather than a professional approach unless you are a major institutional player attempting to offload a large position to rebalance risk.
rsh01
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wow, how prescient.
dameonStar
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DJ no shorts till the next market crash.......
kitbag1984
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So like a lot of people, I believe that the stock market is in a euphoric state.
The economy simply doesn't match the rate at which indexes have risen this past six months.
I believe that a correction will happen, and that it will be short and sharp.
The question I have is for entry of a short trade.
Looking at the current trend, it is still upwards. I have been burnt before and have no desire to repet this.
What do folks think of my plan:
Look at the end of week closing level, take off 2.5% and then set an order to sell at this price?
The dow has not closed lower than this all year. I wish to capture some of the correction and this will be a good way I think.
What do others think?
Copied from Spread Betting Magazine:
The Dow is up 16.8% year-to-date, ranking ninth over the past 100 years.
The Dow has had 63 positive days so far this year. Only two other years have had more than that, and one other year has tied that.
The Dow has lost 1% or more during a single session only twice so far in 2013. Just eight other times in the past century have there been two or fewer 1% down days at this point in the year.
On a closing basis, the maximum drawdown for the Dow this year is 2.21%. This is the third lowest maximum drawdown out of the last 100 years (through the first 100 trading days).
The Dow has not had a three-day losing streak yet this year. The Dow has never before gone 100 days without a three-day losing streak, whether it be at the beginning of the year or otherwise.
Assuming May is positive this year (which it should be, unless something goes horribly wrong next week), it’s only the eighth time in the last 100 years that each of the first five months of the year were positive.
The economy simply doesn't match the rate at which indexes have risen this past six months.
I believe that a correction will happen, and that it will be short and sharp.
The question I have is for entry of a short trade.
Looking at the current trend, it is still upwards. I have been burnt before and have no desire to repet this.
What do folks think of my plan:
Look at the end of week closing level, take off 2.5% and then set an order to sell at this price?
The dow has not closed lower than this all year. I wish to capture some of the correction and this will be a good way I think.
What do others think?
Copied from Spread Betting Magazine:
The Dow is up 16.8% year-to-date, ranking ninth over the past 100 years.
The Dow has had 63 positive days so far this year. Only two other years have had more than that, and one other year has tied that.
The Dow has lost 1% or more during a single session only twice so far in 2013. Just eight other times in the past century have there been two or fewer 1% down days at this point in the year.
On a closing basis, the maximum drawdown for the Dow this year is 2.21%. This is the third lowest maximum drawdown out of the last 100 years (through the first 100 trading days).
The Dow has not had a three-day losing streak yet this year. The Dow has never before gone 100 days without a three-day losing streak, whether it be at the beginning of the year or otherwise.
Assuming May is positive this year (which it should be, unless something goes horribly wrong next week), it’s only the eighth time in the last 100 years that each of the first five months of the year were positive.
kitbag1984
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Good call. Would you suggest entering a long now as we are still some way off the 15500 resistance.
kitbag1984
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It's dropped now. Standing at around 15320.
kitbag1984
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Thanks suitedse7ens.
Dow futures have dropped significantly overnight currently standing at 15100.
I will certainly read your thread.
Dow futures have dropped significantly overnight currently standing at 15100.
I will certainly read your thread.
kitbag1984
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Thanks for your detailed answer 
kitbag1984
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What happened to the previous poster? Disapeared?!
I have just placed sold the dow for a small bet of £1 per point. The Dow has dropped nearly 2% and breached a previous support level. This on the back of some week economic data. Also im sure that some profit taking will be going on now with such a significant rise.
Knowing my luck it will have a sharp rise now!
I have just placed sold the dow for a small bet of £1 per point. The Dow has dropped nearly 2% and breached a previous support level. This on the back of some week economic data. Also im sure that some profit taking will be going on now with such a significant rise.
Knowing my luck it will have a sharp rise now!
I read an article earlier today which pretty much summed up how I feel about the Dow. “In the past few weeks, good news is bad, and bad news is bad, as we started to see talk of the tapering come through,”. IMO, at this point I can't see us breaching the all time high in the short term without a correction. Even if QE concerns go away (which I suspect they will), investors are then going to move back to the less than thrilling economic data.
My position is short on the Dow, with a stop just under the all time high. Im looking for a quick/sharp correction imminently. Have a very small hedge on the S&P 500 - ill be happy if we lose again tomorrow but somewhat doubt it!
How is everyone else feeling about the Dow after the drop today? FTSE/Nikkei have had it much worse so still expect more to come!
My position is short on the Dow, with a stop just under the all time high. Im looking for a quick/sharp correction imminently. Have a very small hedge on the S&P 500 - ill be happy if we lose again tomorrow but somewhat doubt it!
How is everyone else feeling about the Dow after the drop today? FTSE/Nikkei have had it much worse so still expect more to come!
kitbag1984
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Nice drop again today.
Have dropped my stop to be lower than my sell price by around ten points.
Hopefully this means a risk free trade. Slippage permitting. I have also taken off my limit order.
Hopefully will stay in the trade as long as possible. My stop is around 50 points away from the current price.
My stop is an insignificant amount away from my sell price but at one stage the Dow was 80 points lower meaning I would have mead eam £80 profit which was an 80% profit on my intifial deposit. I'm trying to think long term as my contract end is Jan 14 but it was tempting.
How do you other traders cope with such a situation?
Have dropped my stop to be lower than my sell price by around ten points.
Hopefully this means a risk free trade. Slippage permitting. I have also taken off my limit order.
Hopefully will stay in the trade as long as possible. My stop is around 50 points away from the current price.
My stop is an insignificant amount away from my sell price but at one stage the Dow was 80 points lower meaning I would have mead eam £80 profit which was an 80% profit on my intifial deposit. I'm trying to think long term as my contract end is Jan 14 but it was tempting.
How do you other traders cope with such a situation?
brewski1984
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They know what they're going to do before they take the trade.
kitbag1984
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That's a bit harsh. I entered the trade based on a plan that I had before.
I was asking for how people manage stops when in profit. Do people have a certain percentage away from the sell price? Do people have a target in mind regardless of what the day to day fluctuations are?
I think these are valid questions from someone wishing to learn more. I see no point in patronising people.
I was asking for how people manage stops when in profit. Do people have a certain percentage away from the sell price? Do people have a target in mind regardless of what the day to day fluctuations are?
I think these are valid questions from someone wishing to learn more. I see no point in patronising people.
brewski1984
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I apologise, I wasn't meaning to come across as patronising or harsh.
You should know these things before you enter a trade. I know where my stop is, where my target is and what I will do in between.
Were you just hoping to run it for as long as possible?
You should know these things before you enter a trade. I know where my stop is, where my target is and what I will do in between.
Were you just hoping to run it for as long as possible?
kitbag1984
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That's ok. I am new (ish) to trading and there is much to learn.
My stop was set 200 points higher than current price.
I see merit, when in profit to always change your stop so that it is lower than your breakeven price (whether buy or sell). This then takes away any capital risk from the trade.
My target will always remain, it is the stop (when in profit) that I am asking about.
My stop was set 200 points higher than current price.
I see merit, when in profit to always change your stop so that it is lower than your breakeven price (whether buy or sell). This then takes away any capital risk from the trade.
My target will always remain, it is the stop (when in profit) that I am asking about.
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