P
postman
Closed b/e
I'm going to do something less painful like poke cocktail sticks in my eyes until the Germans masters get to work at 2.30.
Closed b/e
I'm going to do something less painful like poke cocktail sticks in my eyes until the Germans masters get to work at 2.30.
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
Closed b/e
I'm going to do something less painful like poke cocktail sticks in my eyes until the Germans masters get to work at 2.30.
They don't like it up them, it's the cold steel you see...
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
long 9958
P
postman
Oil prices rocketing, thats always good for stocks isnt it?
Err wait a minute!
Err wait a minute!
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
need Jerry to pop his head over the trench
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
21 trades already and the day is so young!! Your broker must love your commissions Only just got my first one off the pad and that's stalled atm
1
12WBT
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
Hopefully he'll break (north) in a sec and we can gun him down...
Would you mind awfully just falling in
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
out b/e
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
signals are screwy .. too rangey
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
From Dom
Upon a gate somewhere in rural England hangs an apocryphal sign that reads: "The farmer allows ramblers free access to this field, but the bull charges." The warning is equally relevant for retail ramblers in the stock market, who seem often to forget that the freedom to bet on falls should be used cautiously. The last few trading days have been a case in point. In the face of rampaging gains in the indices, as many as four-fifths of clients at one major spread-betting firm have been running short positions in the S&P 500 and DAX 30. The results cannot have been pretty.
While I do not agree with the short-sellers, I kind of understand their worries. The mainstream financial press is littered with stories about the allegedly ominous lack of volatility today, as well as comparisons with the onset of the crisis in 2007. Investment bloggers note that it is now some three years since the S&P 500 suffered a 10 per cent correction, whereas they've typically happened every two years. And, I've read at least two more predictions this week that we're heading for a full-blown crash rather than a mere correction.
For all I know, these arguments may turn out to be right. I have no problem with the idea that the bull market will come to an end and perhaps quite a nasty one, too. I just cannot see the sense of opening short positions while the market is not only showing no actual signs of falling, but is actually rising very strongly. It really does seem like taking a stroll through the pasture within a few yards of a notoriously aggressive bovine, while wearing a flappy red anorak for good measure.
Having ended May at record highs, the DAX, Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have extended their run into virgin territory. I explained last week how new highs in the S&P 500 have tended to foretell ongoing good returns in the past, rather than market tops. A reader then emailed me to ask if this was the case even where valuations were as stretched as they are today. I have therefore adjusted my research to take account of cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratios, a valuation metric that highlights the market's current dearness. You can read the results here - http://bit.ly/1qtOatT - but they essentially bolster the bull case right now.
What I find especially heartening right now is that some of the riskier indices are picking up strongly, alongside the broader markets. The mid-cap FTSE 250 has built further on its recent recovery, spiking impressively on Friday, 6 June. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has blasted triumphantly to a fresh peak for the present bull market. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is putting in its most convincing rally of 2014 to date, while a clutch of Coppock buy-signals have flashed up. The earlier weakness of some of these markets was a key element with the bears' argument, so their present recovery is all the more significant.
The strength of the current bounce has left certain markets looking overbought on their daily charts, especially the Nasdaq 100 and the DAX 30. Doesn't this heighten the near-term risk of some sort of dip? It is quite normal for equities to get overbought and stay overbought for quite some time during powerful rallies. This is certainly not a reason to sell up or, worse still, go short, as so many spread-bettors have been doing. That said, another mild retreat would do nicely for establishing fresh long positions. The bull has further to charge.
Upon a gate somewhere in rural England hangs an apocryphal sign that reads: "The farmer allows ramblers free access to this field, but the bull charges." The warning is equally relevant for retail ramblers in the stock market, who seem often to forget that the freedom to bet on falls should be used cautiously. The last few trading days have been a case in point. In the face of rampaging gains in the indices, as many as four-fifths of clients at one major spread-betting firm have been running short positions in the S&P 500 and DAX 30. The results cannot have been pretty.
While I do not agree with the short-sellers, I kind of understand their worries. The mainstream financial press is littered with stories about the allegedly ominous lack of volatility today, as well as comparisons with the onset of the crisis in 2007. Investment bloggers note that it is now some three years since the S&P 500 suffered a 10 per cent correction, whereas they've typically happened every two years. And, I've read at least two more predictions this week that we're heading for a full-blown crash rather than a mere correction.
For all I know, these arguments may turn out to be right. I have no problem with the idea that the bull market will come to an end and perhaps quite a nasty one, too. I just cannot see the sense of opening short positions while the market is not only showing no actual signs of falling, but is actually rising very strongly. It really does seem like taking a stroll through the pasture within a few yards of a notoriously aggressive bovine, while wearing a flappy red anorak for good measure.
Having ended May at record highs, the DAX, Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have extended their run into virgin territory. I explained last week how new highs in the S&P 500 have tended to foretell ongoing good returns in the past, rather than market tops. A reader then emailed me to ask if this was the case even where valuations were as stretched as they are today. I have therefore adjusted my research to take account of cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratios, a valuation metric that highlights the market's current dearness. You can read the results here - http://bit.ly/1qtOatT - but they essentially bolster the bull case right now.
What I find especially heartening right now is that some of the riskier indices are picking up strongly, alongside the broader markets. The mid-cap FTSE 250 has built further on its recent recovery, spiking impressively on Friday, 6 June. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has blasted triumphantly to a fresh peak for the present bull market. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is putting in its most convincing rally of 2014 to date, while a clutch of Coppock buy-signals have flashed up. The earlier weakness of some of these markets was a key element with the bears' argument, so their present recovery is all the more significant.
The strength of the current bounce has left certain markets looking overbought on their daily charts, especially the Nasdaq 100 and the DAX 30. Doesn't this heighten the near-term risk of some sort of dip? It is quite normal for equities to get overbought and stay overbought for quite some time during powerful rallies. This is certainly not a reason to sell up or, worse still, go short, as so many spread-bettors have been doing. That said, another mild retreat would do nicely for establishing fresh long positions. The bull has further to charge.
Last edited:
P
postman
My signals are clear.
Attachments
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
Yes thank you Jones, ahem...now where was I?
ClassicPete
Junior member
- Messages
- 43
- Likes
- 2
World cup will kick off today. Could the ones that have been in the game for long enough tell me what the volatility/liquidity will be like during the next month or so? Most of games are not during the main trading hours, but I would imagine that activity will drop off somewhat as trading is predominantly male orientated.
ZEN archer
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,528
- Likes
- 241
It is a choppy market atm (FDAX/DAX)
If it pushes up some more (above the last highs) I may buy. If it drops below the lows I'm not sure about shorts - there is an uptrend line below (have to see what happens with the line)
PS This range is too small for me to trade it (selling highs and buying lows)
If it pushes up some more (above the last highs) I may buy. If it drops below the lows I'm not sure about shorts - there is an uptrend line below (have to see what happens with the line)
PS This range is too small for me to trade it (selling highs and buying lows)
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
Been making the most of the weather in the garden this week so just been sticking in the buy/stop orders and popping in from time to time. Very relaxing
Hi, good to see someone keeping some trading stats and analysing them.
Your win rate is fine - it's close to mine, and frankly I have a solid P&L. To answer your question, having higher avg losses than wins can be problematic (you need a high win rate to compensate). However, in your case some quick mental arithmetic shows you probably have +ve expectancy (although admittedly your sample size is small). Is it normal to have your stats? No, it's normal for most people to have -ve expectancy and lose money
Here's my advice: don't worry about the odd losing day - we all have them. Obviously I don't know your strategy, but it sounds like you should work further on cutting losses. Be realistic in your expectations: 12pts a day is fine. Do that with 10 lots and you won't be complaining.
Thanks, I'll keep plodding away and try to reduce my downside risk and let my winners run. The strategy is a 1:1 ratio, so losses should equal wins + 1 point
P
postman
Dax 10,020 here we come.
hereward the wake
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,154
- Likes
- 124
How lovely
SpreadDoctor
Well-known member
- Messages
- 318
- Likes
- 59
yep, still in my longs from yesterday, sell limits 6874 (futures), just had to flush out those shorts. good luck
