Thanks for the welcome 7th !
Yes, fair point indeed about the swing trade status remaining "Off" - it sounds as though you've got that module nicely tuned, given how the price action has panned out so far. Because you've never experienced this before, what's your gut feel on what will happen when the swing trade status finally comes on ? A massive swing trade predicted to make up for the lost time ?[/b]
Well, not really sure. I used to be able to keep up with the system's ability to process data, but no where near that anymore, so I really don't know. There are some areas where the system has more real-time insight than I do. Too many layers of indicators and signals to plow through with too many possible outcomes to project in the flesh. I do know, however, that the Swing has been suppressed primarily due to all that "linear" action coming off the top at $1.2325. If you recall, the Outlook pointed at this level last month and turned out to be dead-on.
Ever since then (go take a good look at a Daily chart) the EURUSD has been demonstrating some rather "programmatic" looking linear behavior - all the way down to yesterday's $1.1859. A very big retrace of last months upside movement but that is not the point. The point that I'm making is the "nature" of the data as it came down - very linear in form which leads me to believe that it was "programmatic selling" of some kind. You see this type of linear behavior happen from time to time, but it is not the majority norm for the EURUSD.
That linearity is now starting to break-up a little and as it does, it will relieve the downside pressure from $1.2325 and allow more nominal price behavior to re-enter the pair on the TCD side of things and that will in-turn allow some of these Longs to break-out.
echelon4x said:
I agree that this has been a funny old week, I only made one trade though managed to escape with a meagre 4 pips in profit (mainly down to me not having time to monitor the trade). I say "escape" because with news around it's a 50:50 as far as I'm concerned as to which direction the big move is going to be in (providing there is one). I gave up a long time ago trying to understand the fundamentals of the news, there seem to be too many occasions where the price goes in totally the opposite direction to the one you logically think it should move in.
Exactly.... Fed raises rates and dollar drops on poor housing starts??? What??? That kind of stuff puts me on the Golf Course for the remainder of the day working on my Driver and 8 iron approach shots until the next Engine update - lol.
echelon4x said:
The new probability module sounds interesting. I know that when you mention probability density that you're talking about your own unique "out of the box" way of calculating probabilities. However, I was flicking through a trading book the other day and noticed the mention of pdf's. No, not the handy Abobe Acrobat files lol !, but the statistical probability density function.
(1/ (SQRT( 2*PI)) exp -0.5 (P - S) / S
Where:
P = Percentage Change Variable
M = Mean
S = Standard Deviation
Have you ever used this sort of equation in researching into high density probabilities - if so, does it work ?
Nope. My density calcs. take on a complete custom form and won't be found in a book (unless I write one!) In fact, they are broken down into something resembling binary code - not too far from it. I actually run probabilities on the "metadata" not the actual market data. I was not able to get enough refinement from the market data, so I had to go build some of my own and then create a mathematical structure (I guess you could say my own trading calculus) that would yield target regions or levels and then flush out probabilities from those regions of price points. If you are familiar with Ichimoku Cloud formations, then what I do is similar in concept by the way I get there is totally different. So, for me, the density comes form the regions of price points either indicating Long moves "next", or Short moves "next" in real-time.
The baseline text book linear non-linear equations are fine, but so much has to be added in this world, that you end up creating your own "math" so to speak. That is why I say that what I've created is really a new "language" that tries to describe hyper-short term market behavior and it involved routine math, but also non-routine logic that links together non-mathematical objects. It is just "different" than anything else I've seen in this business and at times very hard to put into mere words.
. Oh well, not my fault he's late 
