0007
the vast majority of our clients trade in the indices, currencies and gold and oil. Hardly sophisticated instruments! They either go up or ... they go down... 50/50.
not sure why longs are always prevelant (especially as one of the whole points of spread betting is the ease with which you can bet on the down side as easily as the up) I think that it is probably psycological people feel more comfortable receiving dividend yield than paying it out and (of course) prices do usually rally more than they fall over a complete business cycle.
we do a considerable amount of client trading analysis, in fact we asked a cambridge quant professor plus his post grad team to try to come up with a predictive 'black box' based upon the actions of our clients. The result was complete random noise with no disernable trend at all.
If you like 'chaos theory' in its purest form!
we make no bones about the fact that just under 80pc of our clients lose (in fact I lead on this at our seminars). This is not strange. slightly worse numbers lose when private clients trade using Direct Access on the various futures exchanges. (as per a report from the CME a few years ago).
simon