9 Net winning trades, the road to being a Pro Trader?

[forker]

I might even look at a tapering strategy to lessen the event of breaking a winning streak. Will work on the parameters

 

[tomorton]

I say go for it forker.

 

[NickBk]

Right lads I have an interesting twist to this saga and perhaps might dabble in it on this theme. So I started playing with options and have found it to be an interesting alternative.

So say you deposit 10 into an account. Different instruments have different payouts so say eurusd pays out 80%. You place a trade on a direction (put or call) and you set an expiry could be a few minutes, hours, week or month. Once you place your trade it's a matter of time and direction. You can close the trade in profit but its at a lower percentage. If you leave until maturity then you get the % return back of the instrument. So while it isn't operating on a 2/1 rr basis it is removing the need for a stop. The other element to this is you don't use any leverage so you can have 10 pounds in the account and bet all of it and only lose the 10

My plan is to start with 50 pounds every week and to do 10 successful trades each at full whack. On an average return of 85 percent return per successful trade i should have about 23k. I am not sure how this will function in return percentage when trading news but let's see

I can afford 50 a week and do get strings of winners that can make this possible. If I can do 5 weeks out of a year that's 100k and if I don't I lose 2600 over a year. Before I start I plan on fine tuning how I am going to run this in terms of expiry. Should be interesting

Really!

What you are talking about is nothing to do with real options.

You might as well say you are betting on the top 4 premier league teams at home each week. Your average return of 85% is a coin flip with 30% commission.

Surely after many years here you must have a better plan?

 

[Chalky_trader]

Right lads I have an interesting twist to this saga and perhaps might dabble in it on this theme. So I started playing with options and have found it to be an interesting alternative.

So say you deposit 10 into an account. Different instruments have different payouts so say eurusd pays out 80%. You place a trade on a direction (put or call) and you set an expiry could be a few minutes, hours, week or month. Once you place your trade it's a matter of time and direction. You can close the trade in profit but its at a lower percentage. If you leave until maturity then you get the % return back of the instrument. So while it isn't operating on a 2/1 rr basis it is removing the need for a stop. The other element to this is you don't use any leverage so you can have 10 pounds in the account and bet all of it and only lose the 10

My plan is to start with 50 pounds every week and to do 10 successful trades each at full whack. On an average return of 85 percent return per successful trade i should have about 23k. I am not sure how this will function in return percentage when trading news but let's see

I can afford 50 a week and do get strings of winners that can make this possible. If I can do 5 weeks out of a year that's 100k and if I don't I lose 2600 over a year. Before I start I plan on fine tuning how I am going to run this in terms of expiry. Should be interesting

Have to admit Options have never appealed to me, probably because i dont understand them that well.

Looking forward to your posting some results might help me out in the learning department.

Yesterday was a non event for the DAX, no setups for me, lots of news this week tho, and news creates the volatility that i need so fingers crossed for an eventful week

Good luck everyone.

 

[forker]

Really!

What you are talking about is nothing to do with real options.

You might as well say you are betting on the top 4 premier league teams at home each week. Your average return of 85% is a coin flip with 30% commission.

Surely after many years here you must have a better plan?

This is an experiment and yes it is binary options (thanks for clarifying the obvious). Please stop assuming how I am going to do this because you really are just pulling at straws saying I am operating on the basis of a coin flip. I am new to this type of trading instrument but I do have 16 years trading experience behind me so would appreciate less assumption and request you offer a more intelligent dialogue than this.

 

[Signalcalc]

This is an experiment and yes it is binary options (thanks for clarifying the obvious). Please stop assuming how I am going to do this because you really are just pulling at straws saying I am operating on the basis of a coin flip. I am new to this type of trading instrument but I do have 16 years trading experience behind me so would appreciate less assumption and request you offer a more intelligent dialogue than this.

It'll be interesting to see how binary options work out with the 9 winning trade plan.

To me the binary concept is not much different to 'ordinary' options, the negative press appears to revolve around the way the brokers have implemented binaries and then advertised them to ensure that most lose money over the long term, would I be correct in saying this?

 

[NickBk]

This is an experiment and yes it is binary options (thanks for clarifying the obvious). Please stop assuming how I am going to do this because you really are just pulling at straws saying I am operating on the basis of a coin flip. I am new to this type of trading instrument but I do have 16 years trading experience behind me so would appreciate less assumption and request you offer a more intelligent dialogue than this.

Let's call them their real name, a binary bet. They are coin flips plain and simple and they have a 30% commission on a winner.

As for my assumptions, well if a guy who is trading 16 years and thinks this is an option, pun intended, then I don't need to think much more. My post was not meant to be the insult you took it to be. I hope not many less experienced traders follow your lead.

As for intelligent dialogue, I will bow to your many years of experience and look forward to an update on the 50/50 bets with 30% comms.

Good luck

 

[NickBk]

It'll be interesting to see how binary options work out with the 9 winning trade plan.

To me the binary concept is not much different to 'ordinary' options, the negative press appears to revolve around the way the brokers have implemented binaries and then advertised them to ensure that most lose money over the long term, would I be correct in saying this?

I would say you are quite wrong but will cede to the 16 year industry vets.

 

[forker]

Let's call them their real name, a binary bet. They are coin flips plain and simple and they have a 30% commission on a winner.

From the broker website:
"Our company does not take any commissions on your transactions"

i have attached a test trade i did yesterday so i suggest you perhaps ask or lookup the broker next time instead of assuming!

well if a guy who is trading 16 years and thinks this is an option, pun intended, then I don't need to think much more

I responded to your post stating it is binary options so i really don't know why you are continuing along this meaningless path

let me state again just to be clear so that everyone is on the same page:

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT

 

[Chalky_trader]

Ok i completed level 3 finally

took a DAX long during Mays speech

 

[forker]

It'll be interesting to see how binary options work out with the 9 winning trade plan.

To me the binary concept is not much different to 'ordinary' options, the negative press appears to revolve around the way the brokers have implemented binaries and then advertised them to ensure that most lose money over the long term, would I be correct in saying this?

still investigating on how it is going to potentially work. Will probably have a week or 2 checking how the payback ratios change during news events and also if the platform is stable. will report back on my findings

 

[forker]

Ok i completed level 3 finally

took a DAX long during Mays speech

6 to go... how you feeling

 

[NickBk]

From the broker website:
"Our company does not take any commissions on your transactions"

i have attached a test trade i did yesterday so i suggest you perhaps ask or lookup the broker next time instead of assuming!




I responded to your post stating it is binary options so i really don't know why you are continuing along this meaningless path

let me state again just to be clear so that everyone is on the same page:

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT

Yes of course if a payout on two 50/50 bets is 70% and not 100% then I again must be demonstrating my absolute stupidity thinking the 30% is a comm, let's call it cost of doing business and you and your broker will be happy!

 

[Chalky_trader]

6 to go... how you feeling

feeling that took a long time, and had quite a few scrappy trades along the way that are not worth talking about

like i said i will make videos once (if) i get past level 4, that will prob put more pressure on but lets see.

The money is not a problem at the moment, loosing a couple of k on a trade tho will not be the same as losing £20... got to put that out of my head...

 

[forker]

feeling that took a long time, and had quite a few scrappy trades along the way that are not worth talking about

like i said i will make videos once (if) i get past level 4, that will prob put more pressure on but lets see.

The money is not a problem at the moment, loosing a couple of k on a trade tho will not be the same as losing £20... got to put that out of my head...

just think of it as money you never had anyway.

 

[forker]

Yes of course if a payout on two 50/50 bets is 70% and not 100% then I again must be demonstrating my absolute stupidity thinking the 30% is a comm, let's call it cost of doing business and you and your broker will be happy!

Where exactly is that cost of business (30% commission) coming from?

they are the same as a spread better so there is no actual market access. I place a trade if i win i get my stake back plus a %. So please elaborate where is this 30% commission coming from because it isn't coming from my account?

 

[tar]

Where exactly is that cost of business (30% commission) coming from?

they are the same as a spread better so there is no actual market access. I place a trade if i win i get my stake back plus a %. So please elaborate where is this 30% commission coming from because it isn't coming from my account?

For 50/50 up/down bets they are giving you 80% instead of 100% . Your binary bet price looks like that :

SELL/BUY

44.5/55.5

 

[Pipstream]

Where exactly is that cost of business (30% commission) coming from?

they are the same as a spread better so there is no actual market access. I place a trade if i win i get my stake back plus a %. So please elaborate where is this 30% commission coming from because it isn't coming from my account?

I am not any kind of expert on binary options either but as I understand it the 30% incorporates the broker's commissions. The "commission" comes from the fact that if you lose, you lose 100%, if you win, you only win about 75% (or whatever it is set at). The options are priced according to duration, strike price, volatility, etc and are pretty much geared to the same principle as a casino in that the more people play the more the end result homes in on the statistical calculated win for the "house".

Any one player may be fortunate in winning more than the statistical expectation but this requires the notorious "edge" that we all seek in our trading methods - except that in the case of binary options that edge requires an additional 25-30% compared with normal forex.

But the costs are only one element in trading binary options and there are qualities here that may well suit this project since one key element is precisely this controlled, precise pre-definition of the loss per trade.

But I think it needs a different rule-set to meet the same kind of exponential capital growth rate that the 9 NWT is aiming at.

But, like I said, I am not really familiar with binary options, so this may all be verbal junk, if so, my apologies!

 

[forker]

To say that there is this 30% commission is smoke and mirrors. A commission is something that is taken into account over and above a value. So if there was a commission it would be 100% + 30% which isn't the case. When you win you don't win 100% minus 30% commission because the profit is coming directly out of the broker which holds the other side of the trade. Now if you are stating this is a theoretical commission then that's not the same thing. The nature of this binary business from what i can see is they limit their exposure by reducing the payout. It's nothing more than a bet of direction and time. They make their money because so many don't know what they are doing yet, you can apply the same analysis principles to the instruments and trade them successfully.

The strategy is definitely not a 2:1 like the thread is geared towards but you can still gain a good deal of profit along the similar principles. whatever the outcome i am going to have a whirl starting with 10 pounds and the strategy i will adopt is news trading with an expiry at the end of the day. Like i do in my normal news trading routine except targets and stops.

I am not sure how the system will operate during news so i am keeping an open mind

 

[tar]

oh boy