9 Net winning trades, the road to being a Pro Trader?

[Chalky_trader]

Good luck Chalky, I hope the market gods don't tease you in with some early wins to build up the account, and then massively slip against your stop loss for a few k risk more than you intended. Be careful.

I am aware of the pitfalls, we did discuss them earlier in the thread.

Joking aside anyone attempting this should be aware of the risk that they are taking on for each trade, use guaranteed stops if you can.

 

[Chalky_trader]

Just thought id update, four more trades 2 winners 2 losers so still +2

As its in line with my thoughts of slightly better odds than 50% then am still hopeful.

as per Darktones request i will video record all trades after trade 4 rather than trade 7, if it happens.

This may take a while LOL

Any luck TAR?

is no one else having a go?, i thought we may get a few more traders join in... im sure someone else must be doing it even if its demo.

 

[tar]

Just thought id update, four more trades 2 winners 2 losers so still +2

As its in line with my thoughts of slightly better odds than 50% then am still hopeful.

as per Darktones request i will video record all trades after trade 4 rather than trade 7, if it happens.

This may take a while LOL

Any luck TAR?

is no one else having a go?, i thought we may get a few more traders join in... im sure someone else must be doing it even if its demo.

Hi chalky i dont want to clutter your thread so i opened my own thread will post there .

 

[Pipstream]

is no one else having a go?, i thought we may get a few more traders join in... im sure someone else must be doing it even if its demo.

Hi Ct,

I am still looking into this. I spent much of last weekend trying to tweek a trading strategy to suit this scheme and run several variations through a simulator, but I am really struggling to find one that works sufficiently consistently with a fixed 2:1 RR.

I don't think that stops of less than 15-20 pips can work except on the shortest of TFs like e.g. 5m, but then the equivalent profit target of 30-40 pips is not achievable consistently enough to fit this project, which needs a 2:1 success rate on over 50% of trades.

Maybe it would help if one can also exit on a strategy reverse signal rather than on just limit or stop, but I dont know how to work that into the scaling formula...

I am looking now at either 1:1 RR on 15m TF (which looks promising but does not match the project rules) or a 3H TF using 2:1. I could have entered a first 3H trade in EURUSD last friday and won and then a second trade yesterday, both with a 25 pip SL and 50 TL but in both cases the SL was at a totally illogical and arbitrary and purely mathematical level, which is not a sensible way to trade - so that doesn't encourage me either yet!

I do not trade demos, I would rather use microlots on my No.2 account for these purposes so I am maybe a bit over-cautious here. But I will do it once I get my approach right. I won't bother you and others here on this thread until I am at least at level 3 as that is just wasting space.

I wish you every success with your own trades and am following them with great interest!

 

[forker]

Hi Ct,

I am still looking into this. I spent much of last weekend trying to tweek a trading strategy to suit this scheme and run several variations through a simulator, but I am really struggling to find one that works sufficiently consistently with a fixed 2:1 RR.

I don't think that stops of less than 15-20 pips can work except on the shortest of TFs like e.g. 5m, but then the equivalent profit target of 30-40 pips is not achievable consistently enough to fit this project, which needs a 2:1 success rate on over 50% of trades.

Maybe it would help if one can also exit on a strategy reverse signal rather than on just limit or stop, but I dont know how to work that into the scaling formula...

I am looking now at either 1:1 RR on 15m TF (which looks promising but does not match the project rules) or a 3H TF using 2:1. I could have entered a first 3H trade in EURUSD last friday and won and then a second trade yesterday, both with a 25 pip SL and 50 TL but in both cases the SL was at a totally illogical and arbitrary and purely mathematical level, which is not a sensible way to trade - so that doesn't encourage me either yet!

I do not trade demos, I would rather use microlots on my No.2 account for these purposes so I am maybe a bit over-cautious here. But I will do it once I get my approach right. I won't bother you and others here on this thread until I am at least at level 3 as that is just wasting space.

I wish you every success with your own trades and am following them with great interest!

Good luck. There are 3 people now doing this so should be interesting

 

[Chalky_trader]

Hi Ct,

I am still looking into this. I spent much of last weekend trying to tweek a trading strategy to suit this scheme and run several variations through a simulator, but I am really struggling to find one that works sufficiently consistently with a fixed 2:1 RR.

I don't think that stops of less than 15-20 pips can work except on the shortest of TFs like e.g. 5m, but then the equivalent profit target of 30-40 pips is not achievable consistently enough to fit this project, which needs a 2:1 success rate on over 50% of trades.

Maybe it would help if one can also exit on a strategy reverse signal rather than on just limit or stop, but I dont know how to work that into the scaling formula...

I am looking now at either 1:1 RR on 15m TF (which looks promising but does not match the project rules) or a 3H TF using 2:1. I could have entered a first 3H trade in EURUSD last friday and won and then a second trade yesterday, both with a 25 pip SL and 50 TL but in both cases the SL was at a totally illogical and arbitrary and purely mathematical level, which is not a sensible way to trade - so that doesn't encourage me either yet!

I do not trade demos, I would rather use microlots on my No.2 account for these purposes so I am maybe a bit over-cautious here. But I will do it once I get my approach right. I won't bother you and others here on this thread until I am at least at level 3 as that is just wasting space.

I wish you every success with your own trades and am following them with great interest!

My view on this is to enter at a defined Support or resistance level.

it will either hold or it wont

50/50.

But if you do it with the trend of a higher TF then the wind is behind you and your odds are better.

difficult to simulate tho you need to pick the levels

just my 2 pennyworth

win or loose i think its a great exercise

 

[Pipstream]

OK, I'm in.

Trade 1 completed. I'll post next, with full details, when either level 4 achieved (anything less than that is meaningless) or busted.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Firstly this is not my Idea, someone else on this forum introduced me to it a while ago.

I brought it up and we had a recent discussion on another thread and I thought that maybe a thread of its own was in order.

It’s a great challenge in a number of ways, it inspires discipline, trade planning as well as goal setting, yet all of the usual % account balance risk arguments are irrelevant.

So here goes

The challenge is to turn £10 into £10,000 in 9 net winning trades
9 NWT examples

9 wins 0 losses
18 wins and 9 losses
30 wins and 21 losses
50 wins and 41 losses
150 wins and 141 losses

lets face it, if you aren't making 9 net winning trades then you are most probably losing anyway!

Trades are taken on a 2:1 Risk reward basis and 50% of the net winnings are risked on each trade
Each trade takes you one step forwards or backwards on the P&L Ladder, losing on the first trade means its game over and you are down £10

You can start with £50 & target 50K if you wish

Anyway I thought I would give it a go in 2017,

anyone else care to join me

I wont be posting entries, i'm not into trade calling, but will post results, and reasons for the trade when i can I suggest anyone else wanting to do it do the same.

We will just have to trust each other there's nothing to be gained by making up phony results


Chalky

interesting and ringing a bell with me, will read all in depth when possible

 

[Pipstream]

I am meeting with an entirely unexpected difficulty with this!

I am really struggling with the R:R on this when it is also combined with a fixed pip value for both target and stop. As I understand it, these have to be the same in order to create the progressive, kind of exponential growth.

I am used to using a 2:1 ratio, that is no problem, but it usually relates to the spec of the price movements when entering the trade (e.g. stop beyond recent high/low) and the actual pip values vary accordingly. For this project to work the losses have to equate with half the net gain and so one cannot have a 10 pip stop on one trade and then a 20 pip stop on the next, etc.

But this is forcing me to concentrate on where the stop would be rather than on the potential gain from a trade! Yesterday was a gift for trading the eur/usd but I was so concerned with trying to find an entry level which would also give a sensible stop within the project parameters that I ended up trading nothing all day!

I will have to develop a new way of thinking about trade entry for this to move forward. I am generally a very cautious trader but right now, with this project, I am way too stop-loss conscious!

 

[Chalky_trader]

I am meeting with an entirely unexpected difficulty with this!

I am really struggling with the R:R on this when it is also combined with a fixed pip value for both target and stop. As I understand it, these have to be the same in order to create the progressive, kind of exponential growth.

I am used to using a 2:1 ratio, that is no problem, but it usually relates to the spec of the price movements when entering the trade (e.g. stop beyond recent high/low) and the actual pip values vary accordingly. For this project to work the losses have to equate with half the net gain and so one cannot have a 10 pip stop on one trade and then a 20 pip stop on the next, etc.

But this is forcing me to concentrate on where the stop would be rather than on the potential gain from a trade! Yesterday was a gift for trading the eur/usd but I was so concerned with trying to find an entry level which would also give a sensible stop within the project parameters that I ended up trading nothing all day!

I will have to develop a new way of thinking about trade entry for this to move forward. I am generally a very cautious trader but right now, with this project, I am way too stop-loss conscious!

I think that the stops and targets are as flexible as you want them to be.

say the risk is £50

and you see a potential entry point

look at where you can logically place a stop., how many points is that away from entry

if it 10 points then the trade size is £5 ppt

if the stop needs to be 20 points away then the trade size is £2.50 ppt

100 point stop 50p per point and so on

target is obviously 2:1 so this also has to be sensible in the instrument that you are looking at

does that make sense or am i missing the point?

 

[Pipstream]

Thanks Ct, no, you are not missing anything. I guess the problem really is that I have started with a lower initial risk expressly for the purpose of ironing out these kinds of issues as this is a very different approach for me. And a lower initial risk kind of limits flexibility with how many lots to use without it getting to mini-proportions!

I guess the real issue for me is using the 2:1 on shorter TFs. For such a small risk amount the stops have to be around 15-20 pips which for my strategies means a 15m TF or less. But whilst targets of 30-40 pips on these TFs are possible and regular, I am not convinced they occur often enough to create the 50+% trade wins needed. A bigger initial risk amount would of course create greater flexibility... which is what I am hoping to achieve after this first trial.

What I would also like to include is a third option to just closing on target or stop, and that is to close on a reverse trade signal if neither target nor stop has been hit - as I would normally do, but I am not sure how that would screw up the accumulation plan and 9 net wins (maybe not at all!).

I will keep at it and thanks for your comments!

How are you doing so far?

 

[Chalky_trader]

Thanks Ct, no, you are not missing anything. I guess the problem really is that I have started with a lower initial risk expressly for the purpose of ironing out these kinds of issues as this is a very different approach for me. And a lower initial risk kind of limits flexibility with how many lots to use without it getting to mini-proportions!

I guess the real issue for me is using the 2:1 on shorter TFs. For such a small risk amount the stops have to be around 15-20 pips which for my strategies means a 15m TF or less. But whilst targets of 30-40 pips on these TFs are possible and regular, I am not convinced they occur often enough to create the 50+% trade wins needed. A bigger initial risk amount would of course create greater flexibility... which is what I am hoping to achieve after this first trial.

What I would also like to include is a third option to just closing on target or stop, and that is to close on a reverse trade signal if neither target nor stop has been hit - as I would normally do, but I am not sure how that would screw up the accumulation plan and 9 net wins (maybe not at all!).

I will keep at it and thanks for your comments!

How are you doing so far?

lol Still +2

I have had a lot of other stuff going on this week and as my entry rules are strict i'm missing them, unless you can be available 100% of the trading day then its difficult to trade the M5 .

Should be back in focus next week. I feel if you are going to succeed at this you have to stick to the rules.

Its difficult to think of a £20 looser in the same vein as a £500 looser (or winner) but that is really what you need to do.

Its a challenge in more ways than one

 

[Pipstream]

unless you can be available 100% of the trading day then its difficult to trade the M5 .

Absolutely! And when the market is moving in one direction it is not so easy to get in at the right time! (easier when looking in hindsight!).

lol Still +2
I feel if you are going to succeed at this you have to stick to the rules.

Yes, I guess so. But I am wondering: What if one closes out on a reverse signal before the target or stop has been triggered and still call it a "non-win" whether it is a profit or a loss, then surely the next trade can still be worked on half the balance as normal? Does not the Project only demands 9 "wins" that actually reach the target?

Its a challenge in more ways than one

There are many interesting angles in this Project, thats for sure! :smart:

 

[Chalky_trader]

Absolutely! And when the market is moving in one direction it is not so easy to get in at the right time! (easier when looking in hindsight!).



Yes, I guess so. But I am wondering: What if one closes out on a reverse signal before the target or stop has been triggered and still call it a "non-win" whether it is a profit or a loss, then surely the next trade can still be worked on half the balance as normal? Does not the Project only demands 9 "wins" that actually reach the target?



There are many interesting angles in this Project, thats for sure! :smart:

I wondered about similar

if your target is 100 and it falls short you close at 80 for whatever reason, how do you account for that?

i sometimes go stop Break even, how does that count?

thing is we can make it up as we go along LOL,

the target is 10k

the target is 9 net winning trades... if its 9 k and 12 trades ill take that

lets not be to hard on ourselves

plan each trade with 2:1 RR and risk 50% of the balance of net winnings

im keeping a log

we can look back and learn from it

and it definitely, IMO, is not a waste of time win or loose

 

[Pipstream]

Level 2 complete. Looking now for level 3 trade......

 

[Pipstream]

I wondered about similar

if your target is 100 and it falls short you close at 80 for whatever reason, how do you account for that?

i sometimes go stop Break even, how does that count?

thing is we can make it up as we go along LOL,

I am adding the third option of a "manual" close anywhere between the original target and stop levels - usually because of a reverse signal in the trading model that I am using for this. Seems silly to let it continue to the stop level even when the trading model reverses the likely direction, especially if the price has fallen short of the target.....

But I am including these as "non-wins" in the same way as a stop out even if they actually have a profit (which has happened twice so far). In other words, they do not count towards the 9 NWTs but the results still impact the Trade Net Balance used for the next trade. If it is a loss then it reduces the balance, but not by as much as a stopout. If it is a gain, then it increases the balance used for the next trade but not by as much as a "Win" and does not count as a "Win".

As long as a partial win is not included as a "Win" then I can only see this as an advantage since it either reduces the impact of an otherwise full stop-out loss or even adds to the balance being used for future trades?

 

[Chalky_trader]

I am adding the third option of a "manual" close anywhere between the original target and stop levels - usually because of a reverse signal in the trading model that I am using for this. Seems silly to let it continue to the stop level even when the trading model reverses the likely direction, especially if the price has fallen short of the target.....

But I am including these as "non-wins" in the same way as a stop out even if they actually have a profit (which has happened twice so far). In other words, they do not count towards the 9 NWTs but the results still impact the Trade Net Balance used for the next trade. If it is a loss then it reduces the balance, but not by as much as a stopout. If it is a gain, then it increases the balance used for the next trade but not by as much as a "Win" and does not count as a "Win".

As long as a partial win is not included as a "Win" then I can only see this as an advantage since it either reduces the impact of an otherwise full stop-out loss or even adds to the balance being used for future trades?

i think that's a great Rule to add

Noted

Good luck

 

[Signalcalc]

This test would be an ideal candidate for a machine designed trading system. The parameters of 1:2 RR and 9 net wins could be entered allowing the software to discover price patterns that meet the criteria that could be tested and then traded. Is anyone on the forum actively looking into machine designed trading systems that might be able to do this?

 

[Pipstream]

Just a reminder to anyone looking for 2:1 trades:

Mon 16th is Martin L. King's Birthday bank Holiday in the US and banks will be closed. Therefore volatility may be subdued.

 

[forker]

Right lads I have an interesting twist to this saga and perhaps might dabble in it on this theme. So I started playing with options and have found it to be an interesting alternative.

So say you deposit 10 into an account. Different instruments have different payouts so say eurusd pays out 80%. You place a trade on a direction (put or call) and you set an expiry could be a few minutes, hours, week or month. Once you place your trade it's a matter of time and direction. You can close the trade in profit but its at a lower percentage. If you leave until maturity then you get the % return back of the instrument. So while it isn't operating on a 2/1 rr basis it is removing the need for a stop. The other element to this is you don't use any leverage so you can have 10 pounds in the account and bet all of it and only lose the 10

My plan is to start with 50 pounds every week and to do 10 successful trades each at full whack. On an average return of 85 percent return per successful trade i should have about 23k. I am not sure how this will function in return percentage when trading news but let's see

I can afford 50 a week and do get strings of winners that can make this possible. If I can do 5 weeks out of a year that's 100k and if I don't I lose 2600 over a year. Before I start I plan on fine tuning how I am going to run this in terms of expiry. Should be interesting