8 methods to consistent profitability

[15 min tlb]

Very pretty drawings but I prefer "The Scream".

You don't think they might just be daily/weekly extremes then

4 hour charts as used by the pro's. Which market would this be in? Which exchange would this be on? Which broker time is this based on?
You do know the H4 charts are bu11sh1t don't you?

Every bloody amateur on this forum is showing his amateurism.

You missed those beautiful trending 4 hour stochastic cross moves.You must be an ameteur.

2 Charts 3 Indicators

 

[nunrgguy]

 

[15 min tlb]

Nurguy

Honestly , did you realize how poor that method is?Anybody who followed it must have lost money ?They gave 4 and 5 stars for that crap , must be retarded ratings.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/105646-revisiting-price-action.html

I am glad there are a few decent contributors left on this site.

 

[nunrgguy]

Nurguy

Honestly , did you realize how poor that method is?Anybody who followed it must have lost money ?They gave 4 and 5 stars for that crap , must be retarded ratings.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/105646-revisiting-price-action.html

I am glad there are a few decent contributors left on this site.

What method?
Some basic ideas on reading PA?

 

[15 min tlb]

What method?
Some basic ideas on reading PA?

Along a major trendline you run your profits , but there are exits.Run your profits and allow trades to run .

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/105646-revisiting-price-action.html#post1284860

If anyone following that would never make money.Even the first entry is poor.

 

[ZEN archer]

Along a major trendline you run your profits , but there are exits.Run your profits and allow trades to run .

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/105646-revisiting-price-action.html#post1284860

If anyone following that would never make money.Even the first entry is poor.

No entry is poor if it makes money IMHO

However it was maybe possible to make money that way 2 years ago. Nowadays they tend to exploit this approach ruthlessly (catching all the classic patterns' followers left, right and centre). Also they love 'profit runners'

 

[15 min tlb]

No entry is poor if it makes money IMHO

However it was maybe possible to make money that way 2 years ago. Nowadays they tend to exploit this approach ruthlessly (catching all the classic patterns' followers left, right and centre). Also they love 'profit runners'

We are trading probabilities , certain types of entries may have 35 percent hit rate ,others may have 65 percent hit rate ,that entry is around the lower probability.
It can make money but it is hard on more occasions than less.reversals have no better than 35 percent chance of success.i would not take it until after it had crossed a key confirmed support.

 

[Predicabo]

Be wary of anyone who quotes round figures in relation to relative probabilities of trade, chart, pattern or price types or percentage of traders that lose. If they do, ask them to quote their sources. If you're trading on a technical basis there is no definitive research available to determine the relative merit of any given method. You can trade reversals for a few months and make profits. Trade the same way the next couple of months and you’ll get killed. Key is the ability to differentiate the type of market you’re in and trade appropriately. Almost everyone can look at price action on a chart and determine what sort of market they’re in. Where the problems arise, particularly with TA merchants is their deeply held belief they need to be able to (a) trade every asset class (b) trade every significant move (c) trade every sort of move from continuation to reversal and (d) be able to codify & systemise entry & exits into an automated or semi-automated system. Classic case of a dog with two bones.

 

[DionysusToast]

Be wary of anyone who quotes round figures in relation to relative probabilities of trade, chart, pattern or price types or percentage of traders that lose. If they do, ask them to quote their sources. If you're trading on a technical basis there is no definitive research available to determine the relative merit of any given method. You can trade reversals for a few months and make profits. Trade the same way the next couple of months and you’ll get killed. Key is the ability to differentiate the type of market you’re in and trade appropriately. Almost everyone can look at price action on a chart and determine what sort of market they’re in. Where the problems arise, particularly with TA merchants is their deeply held belief they need to be able to (a) trade every asset class (b) trade every significant move (c) trade every sort of move from continuation to reversal and (d) be able to codify & systemise entry & exits into an automated or semi-automated system. Classic case of a dog with two bones.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Pretty concise and to the point!

 

[15 min tlb]

Be wary of anyone who quotes round figures in relation to relative probabilities of trade, chart, pattern or price types or percentage of traders that lose. If they do, ask them to quote their sources. If you're trading on a technical basis there is no definitive research available to determine the relative merit of any given method. You can trade reversals for a few months and make profits. Trade the same way the next couple of months and you’ll get killed. Key is the ability to differentiate the type of market you’re in and trade appropriately. Almost everyone can look at price action on a chart and determine what sort of market they’re in. Where the problems arise, particularly with TA merchants is their deeply held belief they need to be able to (a) trade every asset class (b) trade every significant move (c) trade every sort of move from continuation to reversal and (d) be able to codify & systemise entry & exits into an automated or semi-automated system. Classic case of a dog with two bones.

Your points are about the ability of traders to read context and market conditions , to separate between all types of market conditions.That is exactly the point of the first post ,to spend the time to get the skill and experience needed to become a master

There are several ways of doing it by looking at potential rejection points, resistance , support , trend lines , fundamentals and using a reliable indicator called the stochastic on the 4 hour and daily charts .Also look at daily , 4 hour and hourly trend lines.WHAT ELSE IS MISSING FROM THIS LIST?Perhaps you can advice.

 

[ffsear]

Be wary of anyone who quotes round figures in relation to relative probabilities of trade, chart, pattern or price types or percentage of traders that lose. If they do, ask them to quote their sources. If you're trading on a technical basis there is no definitive research available to determine the relative merit of any given method. You can trade reversals for a few months and make profits. Trade the same way the next couple of months and you’ll get killed. Key is the ability to differentiate the type of market you’re in and trade appropriately. Almost everyone can look at price action on a chart and determine what sort of market they’re in. Where the problems arise, particularly with TA merchants is their deeply held belief they need to be able to (a) trade every asset class (b) trade every significant move (c) trade every sort of move from continuation to reversal and (d) be able to codify & systemise entry & exits into an automated or semi-automated system. Classic case of a dog with two bones.

Great post!

 

[tar]

Great post!

Yes good post #68 but he contradicted himself earlier in 2 posts !!

Consistent profitability. What does that mean? Every trade? Every day? Week, month, year? What? Trading is about probabilities not certainty. Just like any business. You can have all the right things in the right place at the right time with all the right people and you can still get shafted. It happens. Aiming for consistent profitability is probably the last thing anyone should be concentrating on when they're trying to make money. That comes about as a byproduct of the process.

You want 'methods' to support the probability of on-going success and 'overall eventual profitability'? Fundamentals, Research, Knowledge, Experience, Discipline, Effort, Energy, Stamina, Confidence, Self-Belief, Resilience, Quietness of Mind, Passion, Capital, Network, Information, Luck.

Alternatively, as many reading First Steps will have their account fully funded with £1000 and a chart full of indicators. Remove all your indicators. Then just stick three moving averages on it: a short one, one 4 times the length of the short one and one 10 times the length of the short one. When the shortest crosses the longest, trade. Exit when the shortest crosses the middle size one. Do not trade in the middle of a run, wait for a cross; there's always another one. Take every cross. Laugh at the losers. Ignore the winners. At the end of the week, not before, check your bottom line. You will not believe just how close you are to how the pros do it. Sorry, almost forgot - take long lunches and play golf in the afternoons.

Did you apply the moving averages I suggested to a chart, any chart, and run it? Did you read my instructions on the method about only taking the first cross and not taking a trade mid-run? Take a look what happens in the range – nothing – no trades taken. Yeah, most new traders using moving average cross do get taken out for precisely the reason they trade it in every market condition, even when it’s not trending. Hence my additional advice. You may also want to expand your research as the humble moving average cross is one of the few methods that have consistently, over the long term, proven profitable. I suspect any number of other members reading your comment felt the urge to stick up a chart showing you a cross where the smart money would definitely not have been bailing out, but piling in. I kept it simple given the nature of the forum and to enable inexperienced traders to calculate the medium and longer moving averages with utility. Once they’ve done that, they will notice they don’t need the smallest moving average as the price will do quite nicely. I don’t think you could accuse the price of being a lagging indicator. My reason for posting was to offset the ponderous twaddle of your initial post on this thread. The last thing an inexperienced trader eager to learn needs is someone with even less experience giving them advice.

 

[Predicabo]

Yes good post #68 but he contradicted himself earlier in 2 posts !!

What are you talking about? Where is the contradiction?

 

[tar]

What are you talking about? Where is the contradiction?

Apply this post of yours to your earlier posts :

Be wary of anyone who quotes round figures in relation to relative probabilities of trade, chart, pattern or price types or percentage of traders that lose. If they do, ask them to quote their sources. If you're trading on a technical basis there is no definitive research available to determine the relative merit of any given method. You can trade reversals for a few months and make profits. Trade the same way the next couple of months and you’ll get killed. Key is the ability to differentiate the type of market you’re in and trade appropriately. Almost everyone can look at price action on a chart and determine what sort of market they’re in. Where the problems arise, particularly with TA merchants is their deeply held belief they need to be able to (a) trade every asset class (b) trade every significant move (c) trade every sort of move from continuation to reversal and (d) be able to codify & systemise entry & exits into an automated or semi-automated system. Classic case of a dog with two bones.

 

[Predicabo]

Apply this post of yours to your earlier posts :

I'm still none the wiser and suspect further explanation from you will not change that situation for the better. Good luck with whatever it is you're trying to say.

 

[tar]

I'm still none the wiser and suspect further explanation from you will not change that situation for the better. Good luck with whatever it is you're trying to say.

I don't have to say anything you've said it all , you say consistency is the last concern but then you say : " You can trade reversals for a few months and make profits. Trade the same way the next couple of months and you’ll get killed."
If consistency isn't important then there is no problem , pick any method you want from FF and you will make money until you don't .

"You may also want to expand your research as the humble moving average cross is one of the few methods that have consistently, over the long term, proven profitable "
but didnt you say : "Be wary of anyone who quotes round figures in relation to relative probabilities of trade, chart, pattern or price types or percentage of traders that lose. If they do, ask them to quote their sources . If you're trading on a technical basis there is no definitive research available to determine the relative merit of any given method "

Your suggestion : "Did you apply the moving averages I suggested to a chart, any chart, and run it? Did you read my instructions on the method about only taking the first cross and not taking a trade mid-run? Take a look what happens in the range – nothing – no trades taken "

What first cross mean ? which one ?

 

[15 min tlb]

I don't have to say anything you've said it all , you say consistency is the last concern but then you say : " You can trade reversals for a few months and make profits. Trade the same way the next couple of months and you’ll get killed."
If consistency isn't important then there is no problem , pick any method you want from FF and you will make money until you don't .

"You may also want to expand your research as the humble moving average cross is one of the few methods that have consistently, over the long term, proven profitable "
but didnt you say : "Be wary of anyone who quotes round figures in relation to relative probabilities of trade, chart, pattern or price types or percentage of traders that lose. If they do, ask them to quote their sources . If you're trading on a technical basis there is no definitive research available to determine the relative merit of any given method "

Your suggestion : "Did you apply the moving averages I suggested to a chart, any chart, and run it? Did you read my instructions on the method about only taking the first cross and not taking a trade mid-run? Take a look what happens in the range – nothing – no trades taken "

What first cross mean ? which one ?

I have backtested many of these moving average crosses , I never found any consistently profitable one , let alone a profitable one.If mas give an edge , you would get robots working , we don't need to trade.

 

[the hare]

I have backtested many of these moving average crosses , I never found any consistently profitable one , let alone a profitable one.If mas give an edge , you would get robots working , we don't need to trade.

Reading this stuff is painful

A moving average cross isn't a system.

 

[15 min tlb]

Reading this stuff is painful

A moving average cross isn't a system.

I meant ma cross systems with stop, target ,exits , filters , trailing stops etc.They don't work in narrow ranging markets , fast unpredictable moves , choppy false breaks and volatility.

People misuse the mas.

 

[Triggerfish]

Between "Price" and "MA".....which comes first?.....and why?
Why would someone wish to use MA?
Would it be fair to say one who uses "MA" does not understand price itself?.....