This gets my vote for "Worst Thread of the Year" and "Worst T2W Contributer of the Decade".
Well done 15min tl lb dl tb el vd.
It has done it again - 40.Don't make me angry.
but if you to believe ,and assume I am not a liar, backtests over thousands of trades on 2 pip versus 0 zero spread , increased profitability by several fold.
There is also a position sizing formula which ensures very few losses.That is for my own use.
Option strategies with unique mm can make profit consistently for buyers , but I will talk about them later.
Consistent profitability. What does that mean? Every trade? Every day? Week, month, year? What? Trading is about probabilities not certainty. Just like any business. You can have all the right things in the right place at the right time with all the right people and you can still get shafted. It happens. Aiming for consistent profitability is probably the last thing anyone should be concentrating on when they're trying to make money. That comes about as a byproduct of the process.
You want 'methods' to support the probability of on-going success and 'overall eventual profitability'? Fundamentals, Research, Knowledge, Experience, Discipline, Effort, Energy, Stamina, Confidence, Self-Belief, Resilience, Quietness of Mind, Passion, Capital, Network, Information, Luck.
Alternatively, as many reading First Steps will have their account fully funded with £1000 and a chart full of indicators. Remove all your indicators. Then just stick three moving averages on it: a short one, one 4 times the length of the short one and one 10 times the length of the short one. When the shortest crosses the longest, trade. Exit when the shortest crosses the middle size one. Do not trade in the middle of a run, wait for a cross; there's always another one. Take every cross. Laugh at the losers. Ignore the winners. At the end of the week, not before, check your bottom line. You will not believe just how close you are to how the pros do it. Sorry, almost forgot - take long lunches and play golf in the afternoons.
What a load of Wank / Lulz / Whatever.
But enough is enough. The very best thing a beginner can do is ignore all of the BS this guy has come out with the last few months.
I can't say I know any pro's (I assume this means IB) personally however I will allow you the last word.
This sort of moving average stuff and advice has lost a lot of money for traders, they get chopped out in ranging markets with lagging indicators..It stops working in poor price action ranging markets , this is why all eas fail , they use lagging information.There are hundreds of 3 moving average systems freely available on the internet , and 95 % losers on other forums giving poor advice,
By the time you get a moving average signal , the smarter trades are exiting , and the 95 % losers are entering.
Did you apply the moving averages I suggested to a chart, any chart, and run it? Did you read my instructions on the method about only taking the first cross and not taking a trade mid-run? Take a look what happens in the range – nothing – no trades taken. Yeah, most new traders using moving average cross do get taken out for precisely the reason they trade it in every market condition, even when it’s not trending. Hence my additional advice. You may also want to expand your research as the humble moving average cross is one of the few methods that have consistently, over the long term, proven profitable. I suspect any number of other members reading your comment felt the urge to stick up a chart showing you a cross where the smart money would definitely not have been bailing out, but piling in. I kept it simple given the nature of the forum and to enable inexperienced traders to calculate the medium and longer moving averages with utility. Once they’ve done that, they will notice they don’t need the smallest moving average as the price will do quite nicely. I don’t think you could accuse the price of being a lagging indicator. My reason for posting was to offset the ponderous twaddle of your initial post on this thread. The last thing an inexperienced trader eager to learn needs is someone with even less experience giving them advice.This sort of moving average stuff and advice has lost a lot of money for traders, they get chopped out in ranging markets with lagging indicators..It stops working in poor price action ranging markets , this is why all eas fail , they use lagging information.There are hundreds of 3 moving average systems freely available on the internet , and 95 % losers on other forums giving poor advice,
By the time you get a moving average signal , the smarter trades are exiting , and the 95 % losers are entering.
Did you apply the moving averages I suggested to a chart, any chart, and run it? Did you read my instructions on the method about only taking the first cross and not taking a trade mid-run? Take a look what happens in the range – nothing – no trades taken. Yeah, most new traders using moving average cross do get taken out for precisely the reason they trade it in every market condition, even when it’s not trending. Hence my additional advice. You may also want to expand your research as the humble moving average cross is one of the few methods that have consistently, over the long term, proven profitable. I suspect any number of other members reading your comment felt the urge to stick up a chart showing you a cross where the smart money would definitely not have been bailing out, but piling in. I kept it simple given the nature of the forum and to enable inexperienced traders to calculate the medium and longer moving averages with utility. Once they’ve done that, they will notice they don’t need the smallest moving average as the price will do quite nicely. I don’t think you could accuse the price of being a lagging indicator. My reason for posting was to offset the ponderous twaddle of your initial post on this thread. The last thing an inexperienced trader eager to learn needs is someone with even less experience giving them advice.
The trick is being able to identify when a market is ranging and then stand aside. All systems will fail if a trader thinks he can trade it blindly in any market conditions.
Did you apply the moving averages I suggested to a chart, any chart, and run it? Did you read my instructions on the method about only taking the first cross and not taking a trade mid-run? Take a look what happens in the range – nothing – no trades taken. Yeah, most new traders using moving average cross do get taken out for precisely the reason they trade it in every market condition, even when it’s not trending. Hence my additional advice. You may also want to expand your research as the humble moving average cross is one of the few methods that have consistently, over the long term, proven profitable. I suspect any number of other members reading your comment felt the urge to stick up a chart showing you a cross where the smart money would definitely not have been bailing out, but piling in. I kept it simple given the nature of the forum and to enable inexperienced traders to calculate the medium and longer moving averages with utility. Once they’ve done that, they will notice they don’t need the smallest moving average as the price will do quite nicely. I don’t think you could accuse the price of being a lagging indicator. My reason for posting was to offset the ponderous twaddle of your initial post on this thread. The last thing an inexperienced trader eager to learn needs is someone with even less experience giving them advice.
.Show me a set of rules and criteria to avoid ranging choppy trends in advance.
As long as you wouldn't know where the highs and the lows of the day would be you cant be sure if this is the first cross in the new run or just another choppy signal ....
This is your problem! stop looking for rules and criteria and just learn to read the markets then use your discretion. Stop looking for a holy grail.
You don't know if the market is 'ranging' until you are in it
You do not know if the market is 'trending' until you are in it
What has gone before is no longer relevant.
I see the market is 'trending', enter...oh, now it's 'ranging'
All you can do is position yourselve at a point that you believe has a higher probabilty of not being hit than being hit and then waiting to see what happens.
All the entry crap is crap.
Position, trade management and exits: Where are the reams and reams about this written??
4 hour charts as used by the pro's. Which market would this be in? Which exchange would this be on? Which broker time is this based on?
You do know the H4 charts are bu11sh1t don't you?
Using a moving average. If you're going to use them, I'd say use 1 only and it's one that doesn't lag.
95%, no I'd say 100% of losing traders all read Elder, Tharp, Douglas, none of whom could trade their way out of a paper bag...food for thought?
More random ramblings to follow maybe.