20 pips a day keeps stress away

This is the only trade I've done today and I used the system. Wow - it shot up like a missile.
Didn't want to trade before NFP report.

out +42 (shouldn't be greedy)

although if I waited another 15 min could have taken round 50 more - next time I'll put a trailing stop instead and observe daily range.
 
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bedsit said:
This is the only trade I've done today and I used the system. Wow - it shot up like a missile.
Didn't want to trade before NFP report.

out +42 (shouldn't be greedy)

although if I waited another 15 min could have taken round 50 more - next time I'll put a trailing stop instead and observe daily range.
Click to expand...

Hi bedsit.
Whats your longest losing sequence to date? That should give you an idea if the trades/drawdowns sit within your comfort level and render the method as a good or stressful way of risking money.:)
 
neil said:
Hi bedsit.
Whats your longest losing sequence to date? That should give you an idea if the trades/drawdowns sit within your comfort level and render the method as a good or stressful way of risking money.:)
Click to expand...

Hi Neil.
Since I started using it, would say 3-4 days in a row could be the longest losing sequence. For some time I haven't used it on a regular bases. As I do day trading if I am at the platform and can see a potential (like today) I usually use it and if I am there to follow it try to make more than 20. Still think that 12:00-14:15 range is important, but wouldn't use it every day (as success rate is nowhere near 80%).:(
 
The Artist said:
Hey,
Seen this "American-Traders-Start-Their-Day-And-Create-Perfect-Conditions-For-A-Breakout-System" myth in all shapes and forms before, but havent seen anyone really managing to make it work. To have a 1 RRR could be a problem. Also, vol at that time is in the highest quartile therefore stops must be larger than X % of ATR, with X probably large enough to dismiss a 20pips stop.
I hope that I am wrong and that you have found the way though!!!! Good luck!!
:)
Click to expand...

I have a system similar to this that does work, quite well. The difference is that it only works on three pairs and the target and stop is calculated by the size of the range. Really takes 10 minutes a day and brings in 150-300 pips a month. It is not that different from what bedsit has here
 
Mr Flibble said:
Hi bedsit,

Back tested your strategy was under 50% surprisingly however I should note the constraints of my sysem only allow me to enter the trade in the next candle after the break which isn't your system exactly. To optimise it (warning over optimisation on any system done by a silly computer and an even sillier operative is asking for trouble) try your range from 11am-1:15am and enter trade at between 16:15 and 17:00 on breakout either side.
Wins= 72
Losses = 70

Even this would cause you to lose money after you paid your spreads.
Click to expand...


Mr. Flibb,

I have a system very similar but with, what i believe to be a stronger strike rate. Would you consider running a quick backtest on mine if I told you my rules? It is doing very well so far and my backtest showed Jan and Feb +688 pips

Please? :)
 
Yes for sure if you're worried about it being made public send me a PM and I will test straight away. Bedsit have you looked at implementing your plan on only certain days of the week? Its a bit of a clue but Mondays and Fridays tend to trade differently to the middle part of the week. I've seen huge differences with wins/losses ratio just be using systems only on certain days.
 
i'll pm the system over, if your second opinion deems it solid then I'll post it for people here.
 
OK heres the results over a sample of 203 days. Buy in is triggered when the price goes 3 pips higher than the high. I tried it on less pips and more pips but its the same

Wins 95
Losses 108

Based on a 3 pip spread -£257
When I run it over a longer period it becomes decidedly worse.
Wednesday it seems to perform best but this is just data shaping now and its still a poor strategy over the long run.

The issue here for me is a simple one you have picked a system that buys a stock at a high of a range and the whole concept of business is to buy low and sell high. Now if we reverse your plan and get it to buy at below the low then the results are now. 100 wins to 103 losses.
 
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I think the idea behind the system is grand. Picking one currency pair here was smart. But it is not profitable yet, (like 90% of the strategies out there) so get back to the drawing board.

It's time to learn that currency pair even more. Learn where the breakouts happen. learn how to adapt your Targets and Stops to those breakouts while avoiding whiplashes. Also, plan where you will exit if neither are hit (dead trades are no one's friend.)

Keep workin' man. Your idea essentially inspired mine, so I owe you credit here (even if this strategy is still a frog rather than a prince).

Alright, there's my 2 pips on this.

PS, Thanks Mr Flibb for your tests. I Always enjoy your posts.
 
I didn't use the system yesterday - didn't like closeness of the high before 12:00 which was a bit higher than high from 12:00 - 14:15 range and limited gain to less than 20.
Today is Friday. Just remembered - once heard it from a serious trader that he doesn't trade on Fridays - he calls it 'Poet's day' (I guess it is something to do with price action on Fridays)
Anyway, today started late so didn't have any nice set ups. May use the system - at the moment looks like price is ready for some sort of breakout.
I'll see how it goes.
 
Traded today, one winner, one loser, came out 2% higher in my acct. Last two weeks been easy trading, grew by 25% with 2 trades a day. These are not normal results, but it is nice to have my buffer in place in case of a bad series for the second half of march.

Bedsit, maybe you should try out the system I told you about. Historically it's great and the last two weeks it's done better than the backtests. 2 trades a day. You gotta be awake at 1am cst and 7am cst. After that, you can treat it as set and forget, or just check up on the trade from time to time.

It will be like using your own system, since I adapted (aka stole) your idea to make it!

BTW it uses EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

200-400 pips a month, 2 trades a day so spreads will knock off about 60-90 pips of that.

70% strike, in the worst case scenario I could find the last couple years. Good months more like 80%

I realize my pips are not exactly "off the charts" in size, but It's amazing what you can do with consistency!
 
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bedsit said:
I didn't use the system yesterday - didn't like closeness of the high before 12:00 which was a bit higher than high from 12:00 - 14:15 range and limited gain to less than 20.
Today is Friday. Just remembered - once heard it from a serious trader that he doesn't trade on Fridays - he calls it 'Poet's day' (I guess it is something to do with price action on Fridays)
Anyway, today started late so didn't have any nice set ups. May use the system - at the moment looks like price is ready for some sort of breakout.
I'll see how it goes.
Click to expand...

'Poet's day', "P**s off early tomorrow's saturday!" Just an early start to the weekend. :D
 
I didn't feel like trading today, so I took a day off.

Couldn't resist checking the chart - it seems today's break out was a double failure - that's why I use OCO.

BTW three losing days in a row for the system.
 
Hey dude, I went to work. No matter what you're losing if you have to go to work for someone else lol
 
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