Yesterday I traded the system and lost.
Today I didn't. I was looking for trading opportunities in the morning and couldn't find any reasonable trades - price action was horrible (choppy with no clear direction). I was really fed up and decided not to trade today at all. Sometimes it's a good decision, if you can put up with missed opportunities.
If I'm not mistaken this is 3rd loss in a row (Fri, Mon and Tue) I don't think it happened in the last 20 days. Trying not to be paranoid, but since I decided to go for 1% risk per trade started with that sort of behaviour. Strange isn't it?
Today I didn't. I was looking for trading opportunities in the morning and couldn't find any reasonable trades - price action was horrible (choppy with no clear direction). I was really fed up and decided not to trade today at all. Sometimes it's a good decision, if you can put up with missed opportunities.
If I'm not mistaken this is 3rd loss in a row (Fri, Mon and Tue) I don't think it happened in the last 20 days. Trying not to be paranoid, but since I decided to go for 1% risk per trade started with that sort of behaviour. Strange isn't it?
4th win in a row. Don't want to be a killjoy, but that's after 3 losing days in a row. If I'm not mistaken 4 wins in a row is highest this system reached from beginning of Jan.
Good not to get overexcited - I'll stick to 1% risk per trade - being a conservative trader.
Good not to get overexcited - I'll stick to 1% risk per trade - being a conservative trader.
I did 3 trades in the morning. All together lost 2 pips.
Only thing - two of them were losing trades. As one of my rules is not to trade after 2 losing trades for the rest of the day, I won't be trading today's break.
May be a profitable trade, but it doesn't matter - maybe some other day.
Only thing - two of them were losing trades. As one of my rules is not to trade after 2 losing trades for the rest of the day, I won't be trading today's break.
May be a profitable trade, but it doesn't matter - maybe some other day.
Typical - out of curiosity checked the chart - it works when I'm not trading.
It was quite close to the stop (0.2pip to the stop)
PS I can see in some other threads they like the system and apply it for their trading decisions. Sort of indirect approval. I'm OK with that, so far as they don't charge for it.
It was quite close to the stop (0.2pip to the stop)
PS I can see in some other threads they like the system and apply it for their trading decisions. Sort of indirect approval. I'm OK with that, so far as they don't charge for it.
Last edited:
Today price broke out of the range both ways.
IMO it's good to cancel one order if the other is triggered, otherwise may cause double loss.
Last 2 days system went pear shaped a bit.
PS Today long came 0.1 pip to the stop and afterwards made profit. Well I went for short (first break) and was stopped.
There are few possible outcomes if you keep both orders open:
1. both trades can lose
2. both trades can win
3. one can lose and one can win (like today)
4. maybe some other combination I can't think of at the moment
Because I risk only 1% per trade on this system (one trade a day) - I'll keep cancelling opposite order, once first one is triggered.
IMO it's good to cancel one order if the other is triggered, otherwise may cause double loss.
Last 2 days system went pear shaped a bit.
PS Today long came 0.1 pip to the stop and afterwards made profit. Well I went for short (first break) and was stopped.
There are few possible outcomes if you keep both orders open:
1. both trades can lose
2. both trades can win
3. one can lose and one can win (like today)
4. maybe some other combination I can't think of at the moment
Because I risk only 1% per trade on this system (one trade a day) - I'll keep cancelling opposite order, once first one is triggered.
Last edited:
neil
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,169
- Likes
- 752
If both lose you could assume a sideways market and stay out or...note high and lows then play support and resistance - just a thought
If both lose you could assume a sideways market and stay out or...note high and lows then play support and resistance - just a thought
Hi Neil.
It's always easy with the benefit of hindsight.
Once you assumed a sideways market this way you've already suffered a loss, so whether you like it or not you lost a trade (bit too late to stay out at this stage)
One of those things.
If you haven't lost your trading enthusiasm you may play support and resistance game for the rest of the day after initial loss.
gedward3
Established member
- Messages
- 928
- Likes
- 121
Hi Neil.
It's always easy with the benefit of hindsight.
Once you assumed a sideways market this way you've already suffered a loss, so whether you like it or not you lost a trade (bit too late to stay out at this stage)
One of those things.
If you haven't lost your trading enthusiasm you may play support and resistance game for the rest of the day after initial loss.
Hi Bedsit,
Just to add a few words. Keep a note the the 2 or 3 days previous highs
and lows and you will see some more information which can help you in
your decisions. I look at these on the hourlys as they are easier to see.
Also make notes of the daily open and try to trade long if above and
short if below.
Ged
Hi Ged.
Thanks for your advice. I'll do some research.
So far as I know there are some different views as to what time is the best to see as the opening time. Do you take 0:00 GMT as opening time?
gedward3
Established member
- Messages
- 928
- Likes
- 121
I try and stick to the close of the 1am to 6 am high and low but i try and check on what
news is being released that day as well to see if there is going to be enough
momentum to push the breakout.I know other people dont take the wicks into
account but i have my rules and they work for me. Ive attached a screen shot to
give you a better idea of how i trade the breakouts. You can trade also in between
the 1am to 6am candles which i do on occasions. Remember this doesnt always
work out this way but at least your trading in the right direction of momentum.
I will also check the daily and 4 hourly trend to see if i can run the trade longer to
take bigger pips. Btw, I didnt take any of these trades as i was working Friday but hopefully will give you an insight to my trading and what i look for.
For a note. I sometimes but not always use these rules with the 3 ducks as well to confirm that im on the right side of the trend.
I have 2 screens so sorry about the windows screenshot.
Any questions just give me a shout.
Ged
Attachments
I've done re-evaluation of the system. This year it hardly reached 80% success in 5 consecutive days. At the beginning I was expecting it to have 80% success rate more often than not.
Because of the system's failure to come to that quite demanding 80% from now on I wouldn't use it every day, but would use it on discretionary basis.
Anyway I still think it's a good system for new traders. It actually made small profit since the beginning. It offered opportunity to learn some new things about market behaviour without losing money. Through my experience I would usually have to pay (through the losing trades) to learn something new.
Also some kind members posted their opinions on how to improve it. Hopefully there may be some more useful posts.
IMO it's good to observe pivot points, average daily range and be aware of important reports. There are some other points worth taking into consideration mentioned in previous posts. Also important to know if NY is closed (holidays Etc.) and not to use the system on that day.
Because of the system's failure to come to that quite demanding 80% from now on I wouldn't use it every day, but would use it on discretionary basis.
Anyway I still think it's a good system for new traders. It actually made small profit since the beginning. It offered opportunity to learn some new things about market behaviour without losing money. Through my experience I would usually have to pay (through the losing trades) to learn something new.
Also some kind members posted their opinions on how to improve it. Hopefully there may be some more useful posts.
IMO it's good to observe pivot points, average daily range and be aware of important reports. There are some other points worth taking into consideration mentioned in previous posts. Also important to know if NY is closed (holidays Etc.) and not to use the system on that day.
Mr Flibble
Well-known member
- Messages
- 371
- Likes
- 20
Hi bedsit,
Back tested your strategy was under 50% surprisingly however I should note the constraints of my sysem only allow me to enter the trade in the next candle after the break which isn't your system exactly. To optimise it (warning over optimisation on any system done by a silly computer and an even sillier operative is asking for trouble) try your range from 11am-1:15am and enter trade at between 16:15 and 17:00 on breakout either side.
Wins= 72
Losses = 70
Even this would cause you to lose money after you paid your spreads.
Back tested your strategy was under 50% surprisingly however I should note the constraints of my sysem only allow me to enter the trade in the next candle after the break which isn't your system exactly. To optimise it (warning over optimisation on any system done by a silly computer and an even sillier operative is asking for trouble) try your range from 11am-1:15am and enter trade at between 16:15 and 17:00 on breakout either side.
Wins= 72
Losses = 70
Even this would cause you to lose money after you paid your spreads.
Thanks Mr Flibble,
System hasn't performed well lately, but I'm surprised with the results of your research. Less than 50% - that's really disappointing. No point in using it all the time - as r/r is 1/1
Maybe one day if current conditions change.
For the time being I'll use it on a discretionary basis only.
Mr Flibble
Well-known member
- Messages
- 371
- Likes
- 20
No probs bedsit you keep calling them buddy lets see if we can find that holy grail. Don't give up on it yet live testing is the thing but try it on a demo account first.
lbranjord
Well-known member
- Messages
- 453
- Likes
- 15
I'd love a set and forget system that averaged 10pips a day or so. Hopefully mine is, we shall see
