swingin' the ftse

Thought you might be bored playing hang-the-man on another thread and be interested in how 3 + bar swings have been doing recently.

swing trend changed to down late November when the earlier swing low went , then confirmed by the previous one going, but no short signal arrived. Some may have regarded the double top (first white circle) as a swing high and gone short but strict observance of the rules meant a new high had come in which nullified the supposed down trend. A bit later on there was a clear break which changed the swing trend back to up.

The first swing low came (second white circle) but you'd have got stopped out if your stop was too close (mine was ). The next swing low gave a long entry around 6260 which is still running.

good trading

jon

Ans from naked thread
The current FTSE move is all about March expiry ( large funds restructure?) but for the next few months take it that the top is in the bottom isn't what we need to see come Monday is a price printed @ 6030 then two days of rally into late Tuesday then look for a three day fall.
The price needed prior to expiry is 5855

dc2000 said:

Ans from naked thread
The current FTSE move is all about March expiry ( large funds restructure?) but for the next few months take it that the top is in the bottom isn't what we need to see come Monday is a price printed @ 6030 then two days of rally into late Tuesday then look for a three day fall.
The price needed prior to expiry is 5855

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interesting, dc, why 5855? Gonna give me a false break on the weekly is it - see next post

jon

Here's the weekly bar swing chart with major and minor swing lows marked. Still in uptrend until the 6000 level goes, although an amber light is lit with the duck below the trendline.

good trading

jon

And here's the daily following on from the first post.

That's moved into downtrend with the break below 6200 level. The bold swingers would have been short from around 6195, but the more cautious (me ) await the first 3 bar reaction.

So far as the running trade mentioned in the first post from around 6260 is concerned, you would have been out at around 6390 if you'd been trailing your stop commensurate with the signal bar range. Otherwise, if you just held on, you'd have lost.

good trading

jon

barjon said:

Here's the weekly bar swing chart with major and minor swing lows marked. Still in uptrend until the 6000 level goes, although an amber light is lit with the duck below the trendline.

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Hi jon

Nice charts and thoughts on the FTSE, thanks, my opinion is that the ftse is closer to its technical support levels on a weekly chart than the DOW, even if the FTSE can hold its own at 6000 and above, the dow only appears to have the psychological level of 12000 as support if the DOW cant hold this, FTSE's cooked. all my humble speculation of course :cheesy:

I got this from an old Mrs Beeton recipe book

Simmer FTSE on low heat for mmm...couple of days.

Add large dollop OF DOW.

Season with Asian markets.

Add a sprinkle of chopped ex fed chairman's senile rantings

A dash of Yen.

Mix in a very large Billy Bunter sized bowl and slam in the oven gas mark 7, 220 c, 450 f. for a day or so......

Bon Appétit

don

6000 is Key

Attached is something seen all too rarely on T2W IMO, a point & figure chart! Specifically, it's a 25 box, 3 reversal chart.

The beauty of P&F charts is that they are asymmetrical and only print new data in response to market action. Time and 'noise' do not feature. The prevailing trend dominates, so that the forces of supply and demand are clearly presented by a continuation of rising crosses (demand) or a three box reversal to falling zero's (supply). Clearly, the blue bullish support lines dominate this chart. There are only 4 breaks in the blue line, the last one prior to No. 1 dates back to August 2004.

Break No. 1 was potentially a major one and many people would have been tempted to bail out of long positions or sell short the market at around 5500. The latter would have been stopped out as the bulls piled back in with gusto. No. 2 is interesting as the market had made an earlier double top just below the 6000 level but, with numerous support levels down to 5500, it would be a bold call to go short here. The breach of the 6000 level and the sideways autumn consolidation presents a decisive breakout buy signal. This key level is tested at No. 3 and, although there is a technical P&F sell signal, it's weaker than a very weak weak thing. So, the uptrend resumes until last week's global slide, generating a sell signal at 6125. What is interesting is that the large and rapid decline was arrested long before it hit the 6000 level. Some LTBH's may have taken profits accumulated in the earlier bull run and some short term traders may have initiated short positions. But, as yet, there's no real harm done. If the P&F chart fails to rise to 6175 to print a rising blue cross and, instead, reverses to fall to 6075, then a new column of red zero's will form. There are then three opportunities to find support and form double bottoms. A print below 6000 at 5975 will be a clear P&F sell signal. The trend will have reversed and the red bearish resistance line at the top right of the chart will dominate. If this did occur, it is likely that there would be a reversal (of blue crosses) to test the 6000 level, and if the bulls failed to surge through this on good volume, this would indeed be an ominous sign. So, in terms of a swing trade on the index, I'm very much in the wings waiting to see what happens. To trade either side of the market until such time as it is clear whether the 6000 mark is support or resistance would, for me, be assuming too much risk.
Tim.

timsk said:

..........................Attached is something seen all too rarely on T2W IMO, a point & figure chart! Specifically, it's a 25 box, 3 reversal chart. ................
Tim.

Click to expand...

tim,

Ah, yes! Used to work from p&f charts (hand drawn ) for many years until the wonders of modern technology came along to seduce me and shrink my time horizons. Many years ago used to think in terms of months stretching occasionally to years, now it's days stretching occasionally to weeks. Still haven't succumbed to minutes and hours though :cheesy:

good trading

jon

2 rally days followed by three fall days now where did I hear that?

Barjon 5855 by March expiry would give some funds a nice little earner it is also 9% below last Mondays close so is accepted correction territory

Yeah, nice to see some P&F charts occasionally. Here are a couple I prepared earlier.

Mayfly said:

Yeah, nice to see some P&F charts occasionally. Here are a couple I prepared earlier.

Click to expand...

Hi Mayfly,
Cool indeed.
I don't want to send Jon's thread off topic, but I'd be interested in your take of the High/Low versus Close debate. If you're inclined to reply, perhaps your answer could be in the context of 'swingin' the ftse'?
Cheers,
Tim.

no problem, tim, i can always re-name it p&fin' the ftse :cheesy:

but I'd be interested in your take of the High/Low versus Close debate

Click to expand...

Always interested in quality trading discussion & swinging of course sorry there's that alter ego again

The FTSE having confirmed the action for me this morning I would want to be taking a position 6126 around 3pm and look for 5917 as a good profit area in the days to come

dc2000 said:

The FTSE having confirmed the action for me this morning I would want to be taking a position 6126 around 3pm and look for 5917 as a good profit area in the days to come

Click to expand...

Hi dc2000,
I guess that if you entered this trade that you were subsequently stopped out? If so, you might get another bite at the cherry . . .

The test of the 6000 level appears to be holding - for the time being - and now all eyes (well, mine anyway) will be waiting to see if the index can take out the lower swing high from 12/03 at around 6,275. Today's high did manage this just, but, the experience wasn't very agreeable as the index retreated almost half back down the day's trading range to close at 6,256. If it fails to build on the gains of last week and breach 6,300 and instead, reverses, those with an appetite for risk could take a short at 6,200. However, while the main bull trend was still in tact, this level and the zone immediately below at 6,175 provided support 6 out of 9 times that price reversed. If price did find support here, it would suggest that the key level of 6,000 is much more secure and a fresh assault on the 6,300 mark could be expected. So, a conservative long entry would be at 6,300 or above (bloo arrow) with a view to test the 6,450 highs or, alternatively, a short entry at 6,150 (red arrow) to test the 6,000 level for a 4th time.
Tim.

Ooh!! Thanks, Tim - I'd almost forgotten about the thread and been very dilatory keeping it going

Here's an update. A swing high in the assumed downtrend formed on 12/3 (red line) with a short entry signalled the next day (white line). A couple of hundred points in the subsequent move since most swingers would assume 6000 was going to hold (it did) and have closed at least half their positions by then.

The strong rebound did, as Tim says, take out (just) the swing high at 6276 yesterday and the really aggressive swingers would be long from there. The less aggressive will want a close above that swing high to change the trend back to up and will look for the first reaction for a long entry.

Sorry again for letting the thread lapse.

good trading

jon

Swing trend duly turned to up so shorts out of mind for the time being. Waiting for the first 3 bar reaction for long entry (assuming not one of those aggressive swingers already long )

good trading

jon

barjon said:

Swing trend duly turned to up so shorts out of mind for the time being. Waiting for the first 3 bar reaction for long entry (assuming not one of those aggressive swingers already long )

Click to expand...

Jon,
Those shorts might not be out of mind for long! A really useful little trick I picked up from dbphoenix is to 'blend' two candles together. The purpose of this is to help ensure the trader doesn't get too hung up on any one individual candle and to view the whole chart more as a movie rather than a succession of stills. The attached thumbnail is a two day chart and the last two candles on barjon's chart have fused together to form the single penultimate long tail doji candle on my chart. Maybe it's a 'Hanging Man' - I'm not sure, but whatever it is, it's not bullish. Nisson advises that although doji are reversal signals, he doesn't trade them in isolation, he awaits a confirmation signal. Whether or not he would view today's bearish engulfing candle as confirmation (the final candle on my chart), I don't know, but it looks rather ominous to me. On a positive note, all this activity has taken place above 6,275 (green line) which, for now, clearly offers key support. Coincidentally, the 50 period simple moving average (pale bloo line) is also in evidence here, which may help matters. If support does hold and the market turns upwards above 6,350, my money is on a test of the mid' Feb highs at 6,450. On the other hand, if the 6,275 area is breached early tomorrow (Tuesday 27/03), I imagine that foremost in the minds of 'those aggressive swingers' will be to exit pronto, while day traders will be looking to go short, which they will surely do with gusto.
Tim.

Breakout Time?

I'm surprised that this thread isn't more popular than it appears to be, as I imagine there are quite a few of you out there who trade indices and don't day trade. Ergo - 'Swingin' the FTSE' is presumably where some of you at least are at? Even more surprising is that I don't trade it myself (or, at least, very rarely) and yet I appear to be the chief contributor to the thread. Perhaps I've answered my own (rhetorical) question here - no one contributes to the thread for fear of a reply from me! Fair enough. Anyway, moving on . . .

Chart attached is a 25 box, 3 reversal P&F chart as of close of play today. Sideways chop in April with a decisive breakout buy signal today. My love affair with P&F deepens by the day, but buying conventional 'textbook' signals such as this is something I'm very wary of. It's a trading cliche and, as such, needs to be handled with extreme caution, IMO. After April's tug 'o' war, I wouldn't be surprised to see the resolve of the bulls tested once more by the bears. If the bears manage to effect a reversal - but only the minimum necessary of three 'O's - before the bulls reverse the trend up again, I would go long at this point. In other words, I would buy the pullback following the breakout and not the breakout itself. FWIW, the 50 box and 100 box charts are equally bullish.
Just my 2p worth.
Tim.

Sorry folks, I can't seem to upload the chart. I get an error message each time I try. It's a basic .jpg file and well wihin the size contraints.

04.05.07 - Chart now attached

timsk said:

I'm surprised that this thread isn't more popular than it appears to be, as I imagine there are quite a few of you out there who trade indices and don't day trade. Ergo - 'Swingin' the FTSE' is presumably where some of you at least are at? :

Click to expand...

Jon will know that I have a fascination for doing something with the Footsie, swinging it or not. Boredom has brought me back to it, again, after swearing last autumn that I would never come back. I doubt whether I will have nerve enough to trade Footsie overnight as it does do some very strange things in the first hour of trading. That just gives me the morning until 1330 to do something, as I work afternoons. Therefore,
I'll just say hallo to you longer term players while I contribute to another, perhaps hairier, thread .

Regards Split

Sorry guys - been sunning myself in Madeira for the month. Took a total break from trading and left the laptop behind so not tempted. Here's the updated swing chart with the last two swing lows from the trend change back to up - around 230 points and 117 points and both still running.

mm, can't upload the file either will put it up when the bug's sorted.

good trading

jon