Intraday Trading the Forex market to make consistent profit

Hi Members

I plan to use this thread to compliment my other thread - Intraday Live short term trading - under the discretionary section of the T2W main forum.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader.html


I will explain in more detail how I trade the currency market - but my knowledge and experience is just too valuable to give out every special tip I have learned in the last 11 years of forex day trading to an open forum

You will therefore have to use your own brain and eyes to really explore what I see and how I achieve consistent daily results in basically any market conditions.

I don't expect everyone to agree and believe everything I will be saying - but I will say it is based on my own FX retail trading experience of which over the last 6 years as been as a full time trader.

I don't sell courses or books / dvd's or do any trading lectures. I only trade spot fx - nothing else - not even gold or silver - so my own particular method or strategy should only be applied to currencies - as that is the only product I have ever used it on

I have only traded in the retail section of the industry - I have never worked in the commercial sector so only have basic knowledge of the "other side of the fence" - or as far as I am concerned - "the enemy" ;-))

I now have over 15k of hours watching live small frame currency charts - approximately 14k of live trades behind me on mainly 6 to 8 currency pairs with probably well over half of those live trades purely on the EU and GU.

I think that is really enough experience for you all to believe that I should know what I am talking about ;-)

I also recommend that you only start following what I am going to explain if you have at least 18 months or 2 yrs of existing forex trading knowledge behind you - so that you at least understand the basics - and also have already experienced how easy it is to lose money day trading.

i will now try and explain how to change that - but don't think its just a quick 1 month training exercise - the quicker learners might only need another 6 months - whereas many will need 9 -12 further months to be at least a lot more consistent.

I welcome questions along the way - and will first start on whether you might be suitable for this new journey .........

loads more to follow
Regards

F

I did not start my fx trading journey until I was nearly 50 yrs old

My first 2-3 years got me really nowhere

Yes I could achieve winning trades - and normally I had more winners than losers - I was probably achieving a 55 -60% win ratios - but normally one loser would wipe out 2 or 3 good trades

I was mainly using the 1 hr and 4 hr charts and doing the normal stuff - ie targeting wins of 40 -70+ pips - with stops from 30 to 50 pips.

The main problem was I might take profits at only 28 -35 pips - and widen my stops to over 70 pips to try and stay in the game

I was really being taught by traders and tutors who really knew all the theories - but failed to realise it did not work in practice.

I soon realised all indicators and all main methods of technical analysis gave only average results - ie win ratios of 45 -55% on 100's of trades - and then you needed really good money management to stay in the game.

I kept reading commercial fx traders who only made 40 -70% per annum - and so if they were the pro's - how would I beat that - and so even with say $100k of capital - only say 50k a year would be a great result - was it really worth it??

I had made over 100% gain in just 3 months on $2500 with a company called Next24hrs - and then realised - it had been luck - their next 6 months results were just loses - ie day trading with no stops

I also put $25k with a pro trader in the UK who had a track record of 300 -400 pips every month for over 2 yrs. He traded for me for 4 months - swing trades - after 50 pip targets with 30 pip stops - and he got my account up to $33 k - before a few bad weeks took it back down to $27k - and I then bailed and at least walked away with a slight profit.

Then thing changed after meeting some traders in a US chat room

They gave me a bit of help - and suddenly - I started to see another way of looking at trading........... - and it was just not the way I had been reading and studying - totally different

I suppose I was lucky at that stage - i was semi retired - had loads of time on my hands and was a very inquisitive - due to my business background and my very competitive nature - ie i wanted to succeed and do well in everything I took on.

Up to then trading forex was beating me - I had been ripped off on courses and i was being made to look a fool by the market - it could just beat me up - take my money off me and give me a real psycho problem most weeks

I did not like it - but knew I was too far down the line just to give up and walk away

I think that happens to so many traders - it becomes addictive - like drugs or drink - and then it takes your life over

For me Forex trading was the most difficult project I had ever taken on - no way was it easy to make consistent money - and this was after 30 -36 months of at least 10 -15 hrs a week trying to make sense of what was happening.

I really don't want anybody following me thinking its easy

It's not - trust me !!!

It helps if you have some qualities that will be needed and will be tested.

For example - there is no way my wife could learn to trade at an high level - the main reasons being - she suffers with "road rage" - ie short tempered - she cannot focus or concentrate on anything more than about an hr without getting bored - she's not into maths or problem solving........ although on the positive side she is very disciplined and does not mind hard work.

Please do not kid yourself - trading will find out all of your weaknesses - don't think you can hide them - and get away not needing rules etc

Therefore probably out of every 10 forex traders with basic - or intermediate level who will try my way - maybe only 3 or 4 of them will make it work well and maybe another 3 or 4 should not even attempt it - ie its not for them

Ok - on next to my own particular theory of the FX markets and why I probably differ with 80% of all traditional type of traders and investors

Regards

F

The Forex market and Me

I got into the forex market in the boom time - after the new millennium and pre 2007 /8

The currency market had been growing quickly after the arrival of the internet and suddenly being made available to everyone and their dog.

It became the largest money market in the World by 2006ish with over $3 trillion being traded every day. Day trading was the new boom business - ideal for someone wanting a new money earner - and you did not need 10's of K of capital to start with- you could use your savings or borrow a a few grand and in theory once you had spent a few months looking at a few charts - you would be on your way to your first million - ( that's how the dream was sold)

It just looked so easy - just look at a day chart and go back over a few years and then look when it reaches a peak - and you sell and look for a bottom - and then you buy.

The commercial financial groups must have thought they had won the pools and the Euro lottery and met 500 beautiful virgins all in one day - it would be that good for them

By 2008 -09 - we had hit the world wide recession - thousands of people where losing their jobs and being made redundant - what job can they find to work only a few hrs a week from home - as their own boss and earn thousands and thousands of bucks - yes - it was forex trading.

The existing traders who all started a few years back were able to suddenly sell their limited knowledge - ie as we know - the one eyed man is the king in the land of the blind

Courses and books and dvd's were everywhere - just spend a few hundred or thousands and you too can be an expert - and go on to fame and fortune.

Yes - it got me interested and I became hooked - but knew there just had to be some catch in this too good to be true new business.

I had heard that business people and clever well educated studious types might not do as well as normal level headed everyday folk - ie it did not matter if you were an housewife or a shop assistant - you could do as well as even a professor or a retired brain surgeon - ie you did not have to be a member of Mensa (more total bo11oxs )

I looked upon it - if I cannot become profitable - as far as I was concerned - hardly anybody else would be able to be profitable - ie I had that much confidence and past credibility in my ability.

I had the Hon's degree in Economics - a business and accountancy trained background - had worked 3 yrs with Sir Richard Branson as well as at a World wide Conglomerate at Director level - I had set up 3 businesses myself - done MBO's than had sold out and was worth a few million - and was semi retired with time on my hands

I had been trained in stats and micro management - was use to pressure and deadlines - had worked on commission only projects within strict end dates - I loved problem solving - was great at thinking outside the box - loved all sport as well as motor racing and competed at various levels - so knew how to win - and also how to accept defeat to a better guy or competitor.

So after 2- 3 yrs of not getting that far in this game - I had to start again and study what I had actually got involved with

That study along with some help from US chat room lead me to concentrate on a way of trading that would also fit in with my own business criteria - ie

1. I would not be trading millions of dollars and I looked upon trading as an income source - not a long term investments - I had that before 2010 in the form of property and 2 pensions.

2. 40 -70% per annum returns would not be sufficient on $100k or less - and I had no intention of investing a quarter of a million or more in this unregulated - crooked industry - with the regulators not having a clue what was really going on

(Back in 1994 I was involved in another industry and had to testify at several Monopolies and Mergers hearings on how certain businesses could control market prices illegally - and for sure I had now got involved in another one )

3, I am not a gambler - I rarely have more than £20 on the horses or other sports betting - as an ex trained accountant - I don't like financial risk - but similar as a previous amateur motor racer - I have driven over 160 mphs on various old aerodromes as well as Silverstone and Brand's Hatch - and therefore I am into "thrill seeking" - as long as its fully controlled

4. I needed a way to make me a minimum 15% per month on under $100k of capital and with the possibility of up to 70% per month - without ever exposing drawdown of more than 10% on any day or week or month

5. I needed consistency - ideally money gains every 2 or 4 hrs - certainly every day and no losing weeks or months -just not allowable

6. All the commercial institutions and all the gurus and brokers etc I talked to just said it could not really be done over say a few months and certainly not over years and years

It just shows how much they knew - and how they had never really looked at "outside the box thinking" - but instead - just followed the herd - the sheeple and believed all that had been written in the past

ie a bit like when everyone thought the world was flat lol

OK - so needed to test some of my findings on a demo account for a few hundred trades and then on a life $5k account - which I was prepared to lose - if need be

That did not happen - as I will now go on to explain along with why I like trading at the "coalface" - day in day out

Regards

F

Very Interesting - only started this thread today - and already the haters have already started

Some hater has already voted on this thread giving it a "terrible" one star rating

I have not even started on the method or strat yet - but somebody out there - hates to think others might gain from what I am going to say - or they could just be a jealous loser

I would ask all other members who read this thread this week to vote on it at the top right hand corner - under ratings and give it a proper rating from one star to 5 star. Many will think its great and should vote 5 stars - others might say no only average - I will only give it 3 star

Haters - please don't even bother ;-)

Forexmospherian said:

Very Interesting - only started this thread today - and already the haters have already started

Some hater has already voted on this thread giving it a "terrible" one star rating

I have not even started on the method or strat yet - but somebody out there - hates to think others might gain from what I am going to say - or they could just be a jealous loser

I would ask all other members who read this thread this week to vote on it at the top right hand corner - under ratings and give it a proper rating from one star to 5 star. Many will think its great and should vote 5 stars - others might say no only average - I will only give it 3 star

Haters - please don't even bother ;-)

Click to expand...

Hi F,

I for one wish you all the best, and I will publically admit, that there have been things that I have learnt from you in regards to a question I posed on here about tight stops I could have taken, and others told me it was a suicidal practice, however from knowing you did the same, encouraged me to take those trades as well.

I must admit that I have not followed your other thread in a while, and that is just down to time constraints. I wish you all the best on this thread, and I for one shall vote, and will let you know what I voted, and for what reason.

P.S. You mentioned earlier about doing courses that didn't get you anywhere apart from lightening a load from your wallet. May I ask which ones you did, and there's no need to give vast details, or implications that could potentially get the thread removed. just names, but no shame, and hopefully the astute can do there own due diligence afterwards.


Best
John.

Hi John

Yes back in 2004 -6 - I tried currency-trading.com - FX solutions course - Steve Matrix day alerts - Peter Bains course - Fx confidential.com. The only one that worked for me was in 2003 - Next 24hrs.com

I gained over 100% in 3 months - and I must have been purely lucky - they were taking one buy or sell on the EU and GU - with no stops and targets - anything over 100 pips. After I got out ( I wanted to learn myself) I kept a note on their next 6 months after they kept contacting me to invest more - but they never seemed to have the same luck again - and if I had stayed with their suggestions - I would have just lost all my capital

At that time - I thought all these guys who were teaching me where extremely good - even experts etc

I now know they knew nothing really - compared to what I have learnt myself - basically through self discovery along with loads of study and "pain" lol

Regards

Forexmospherian said:

Very Interesting - only started this thread today - and already the haters have already started

Some hater has already voted on this thread giving it a "terrible" one star rating

I have not even started on the method or strat yet - but somebody out there - hates to think others might gain from what I am going to say - or they could just be a jealous loser

I would ask all other members who read this thread this week to vote on it at the top right hand corner - under ratings and give it a proper rating from one star to 5 star. Many will think its great and should vote 5 stars - others might say no only average - I will only give it 3 star

Haters - please don't even bother ;-)

Click to expand...

Hi FM

Are you surprised? You shouldn't be since I think you will agree that the web is littered with rubbishy stuff that has started like this - including many that are the forerunners of why people should buy the latest magic formula. It pays to be cynical in this game.

So far, all you have done is proclaim yourself an expert and a successful trader and you can't expect people to five star such claims. The proof of the pudding (and the collection or otherwise of stars) will be in where you take it from here. Bon voyage, mon brave

Can you foresee the future with confidence ?

Can you see the foresee the future with confidence ??

Well I can't - but normally I am very good at foreseeing what might happen in the next 5 or 10 minutes - or even an hour in some cases

For example it 4.35 pm approx in the UK now and where I live its windy - cloudy - but not raining.

I reckon it will stay windy but not rain the next 15 minutes - and would have a bet on that as being high probability

I cannot see it snowing in next 15 mins or temperatures over say 22 C .

Now ask me what i can foresee on Wednesday or next month or in July - and I just would not have a clue - I can only guess - just like 80% of all forex traders and guru's etc etc

Now if price on the EU is at say 1.3710 on Monday 11 am UK time - will I be able to tell you where it will be on Tuesday same time or Friday at 5 pm

I can forecast and try and work it out - but I would be only guessing and might be withing say 50 or 100 pips if I am lucky

But at say 11 09 am on Monday I can tell you were price will be in 3 mins time or even say 20 mins time with a fair amount of accuracy

During that 3 or 20 minutes - normally life will stay the same - but by next Friday we might have the President of the US or the UK Prime Minister being shot dead by an angry Scot or someone from Somerset - you just cannot predict what could happen

I hope that makes a bit of sense for a start - and now gets you thinking Ok - how many pips might the EU move in 3 or 20 minutes and can I make profit on it ?

barjon said:

Hi FM

Are you surprised? You shouldn't be since I think you will agree that the web is littered with rubbishy stuff that has started like this - including many that are the forerunners of why people should buy the latest magic formula. It pays to be cynical in this game.

So far, all you have done is proclaim yourself an expert and a successful trader and you can't expect people to five star such claims. The proof of the pudding (and the collection or otherwise of stars) will be in where you take it from here. Bon voyage, mon brave

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Hi Jon

I agree with you - I am not really surprised at all - but as you say - surely members should wait to see what I type and go into - before slagging it off from the start

Don't worry - forex traders and gurus have made me totally cynical

I will say though I have more respect for the majority of retail forex traders than any total commercial bank trader who just try and mislead all other traders and take their money

I suppose that makes me a commercial finance / industry hater

Forexmospherian said:

Very Interesting - only started this thread today - and already the haters have already started

Some hater has already voted on this thread giving it a "terrible" one star rating
;-)

Click to expand...

dont let it stop you F......if it does lets switch to a private T2W forum and a few of us will vote it in ..............ive been that route befroe with a few others over the years

N :smart:

Mr Fox said:

Hi F,

I for one wish you all the best, and I will publically admit, that there have been things that I have learnt from you in regards to a question I posed on here about tight stops I could have taken, and others told me it was a suicidal practice, however from knowing you did the same, encouraged me to take those trades as well.

I must admit that I have not followed your other thread in a while, and that is just down to time constraints. I wish you all the best on this thread, and I for one shall vote, and will let you know what I voted, and for what reason.

P.S. You mentioned earlier about doing courses that didn't get you anywhere apart from lightening a load from your wallet. May I ask which ones you did, and there's no need to give vast details, or implications that could potentially get the thread removed. just names, but no shame, and hopefully the astute can do there own due diligence afterwards.


Best
John.

Click to expand...

c'mon John get real ...........at the last count about 95% of them (being kind) ?.....sounds like you went on 1 of the 5% half decent ones......... you need to go on more courses.....and it takes a lot of years to realise why they are Sh**te as well ?.......

N

Forexmospherian said:

Hi John

Yes back in 2004 -6 - I tried currency-trading.com - FX solutions course - Steve Matrix day alerts - Peter Bains course - Fx confidential.com. The only one that worked for me was in 2003 - Next 24hrs.com

I gained over 100% in 3 months - and I must have been purely lucky - they were taking one buy or sell on the EU and GU - with no stops and targets - anything over 100 pips. After I got out ( I wanted to learn myself) I kept a note on their next 6 months after they kept contacting me to invest more - but they never seemed to have the same luck again - and if I had stayed with their suggestions - I would have just lost all my capital

At that time - I thought all these guys who were teaching me where extremely good - even experts etc

I now know they knew nothing really - compared to what I have learnt myself - basically through self discovery along with loads of study and "pain" lol

Regards

Click to expand...

watch Darren browns Horseracing scam programmes ........its all down to luck and expert punter/ candidate selection

oldest trick in the book .....
N

Moving on to the logic behind my method of trading -

I am a 99% technical trader and only use the fundamentals for maybe less than 1 % of the time

Fundamentals are used as the main excuse for a currency price rising or falling - but in truth 90% of the time price moves because some bank or large players want to make a money gain from traders who are trading in the other direction.

The GU as been a recent example of how the fundamentals have increased its price - but then one could ask - with all the mess the EU members have been through why is that price still over 1.3500 - should it not be just 1.1500 instead?

All I have heard over the last year or so - is sell the EU - it will drop big time - ie 1000 - 1500+pips

Meanwhile it makes a new high and I know personally of other traders on other forums and in trading clubs who are stilll holding sells under 1.3000 down to 1.2850.

I am sure those retailers are not on $50 per pip and holding a negative balance of say $50k - but i bet there are many who have used 20 -40% of there account in these "dumb" investment type trades

So what are we learning so far with regards to forex trading - my way -

1 Don't try and predict the future past 3 or 30 mins or even an hour

2.Don't listen to the commercial world with their forecasts and their suggestions on how to trade - we need them - but they are the enemy - they want your money and will lie and deceive and set up false sentiments on charts - hoping you will trade in the wrong direction - and 80% + of the time - you probably will

3. Don't have bias - forget it - don't say I will not ever buy the EU during the next month or 6 - as I know it will fall - or even the opposite - don't just buy the EU for the next month or so - saying its not going to fall - because too many traders are in sells - and therefore the players and market forces will take price up to stop the bears out

4 Instead buy and sell as price goes up and down - at what ever target make sense on an intraday basis. - i will be explaining how you do it - but its up to you to become proficient at achieving your results

5. My trade targets are 7 -25+ pips for most trades - that's because everyday price will always move in waves normally between 15 and 40 pips - but aiming for 40 pips on every trade is too much - but really if I cannot get 5 pips out of a trade - its not so profitable for me to cover the risk I have taken

6. Don't mind how your daily target is achieved - ie my daily target is 50 pips and Ideally I would like it with 1 trade with a 5 pip stop . But if I have to make 11 trades only averaging say 7 pips and with a few losses to make 50 pips - I will do it

Similar if i do 15 trades and make 150 pips with only 2 bad trades - I don't mind - but If I have to do 20 trades just to get to 50 pips - I need to check what I am doing - as I am not being efficient ;-)

I suggest newer scalpers only target 20 or 30 pips a day for a start

Also if on a live account - don't use over 2% of your capital . I appreciate on say just $500 or say $1000 capital accounts you will be on small min lots

That's OK - after say a few hundred trades - less than a couple of months - if you have achieved over 65% win ratios and kept your stops under 5 - 7 pips ( including spreads) you can review etc

Off to have my tea in 15 mins - but will progess later with some more basics before going into a little more detail

Regards

F

NVP said:

dont let it stop you F......if it does lets switch to a private T2W forum and a few of us will vote it in ..............ive been that route befroe with a few others over the years

N :smart:

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Hi N

Yes - no problem - i will be carrying on and saying it how I see it etc

Obviously - my way - is not the only way to trade - and i respect all traders are different and we all have different ideas and views - etc etc

BUT - all I can say - is my way as been working for nearly 7 yrs and the last 3 years I have fine tuned it so it can handle nearly any fx pair in any mode

I will be going on to how to learn to lose

Losing is so important - because if you cannot deal with it - you will never progress

As you can imagine - I am also a very good loser - you have to be if you have had over 4000+ of them over the last 5 yrs or so


Have I got some great tips on losing - and even how to make it a pleasurable experience -

Thanks for your support N

Regards

F

hey F / all

EXCUSE ANY DUPLICATIONS AS F POSTED WHILST I WAS STILL WRITING THIS

from what I can see (humbly)..........you are using minimum indicators and watching market moves over fixed periods of 30 mins a time ..........observing where prices go (and where they dont go)

(we must talk more about that linear regression stuff)


5+ Currency pairs based on your own preferences and years of experience ........like old pairs of shoes you know they are comfortable , reliable and are worthy favourites .......mainly USD pairs (?) but I note the solid E/A and also the E/J pairs.......both superb performers when the dynamics are right ...........E/A is usually like watching paint dry - but hey .........who cares !

you are using good old fashioned Technical analysis to watch Support and resistance levels of price (price is all we have)...........virtually tape reading in fact ......

the most straightforward Technical trades are High(Low) breaches - ideally needing a retest before you settle in for business (?)..........or just go with the breach b*lls out ?..........again I suspect experience is key here based on the pair involved .......i'd take G/U every time vs say E/U on such a fast breach scenario........again it depends

the harder trades are the ranging ones .....and I have seen you warn members all the time regarding this technique ..........thats master class stuff ........!!

I note (and am shamelessly now duplicating) the 5 pip trading system where you load up a trade then exit X% of stake after hitting around 5+ pips ..........you are virtually in free trade territory then and well earned indeed if the trade runs ..........this confuses the Hell out of many reading you but they just need to go research the principles or multiple staking on entry / exit techniques and realise its probably one of the major holy grail secrets re MM - one size does not fit all ....

how am i doing ?.........I am keen to watch and learn as its personally fascinating for me .........as i try to adapt my own hard wired trading ideas into some thing similar ........

like you I am determined to go pro after many years of trying ..........and as you say I agree 1000% about what is needed .......high probability trading on lower TF's will pay the bills whlst minimising my capital out there in the streets .......

Great thread building here
N

Hi N

Yes you are reading it correctly so far - with just all the fine tuning to add

I want the smallest stop possible - one of my fellow colleagues who I got to know over the last 2 yrs on another site - and is a member here - as being working with 2-4 pip stops via Dukascopy and as been progressing his timing extremely well

Yes reading PA at the coalface is also key - and although I can read it with just "eyeballs" - i do find my quick LR's give me additional help and assistance on small direction changes

You can be one of my "pupils" N - when ever you are ready and I know with the experience you already have that within a few months I could have you firing off 12 cylinders - achieving a 20 or 30 pip target every day with minimum risk . After say 9 months or a year - then your targets are just how you feel on the day and how the market is moving

My current best day in 2013 was 406 pips and in 2012 my best so called "free trade" - was just over the magic 1000 pips in under 4 months ( not that efficient to be honest - but I did scalp against in during its journey ;-))

Yes a lot more to follow - step by step - with time to watch some of the things I have been saying over this next week

Regards


F

that is indeed an interesting offer F.....very interesting.......my current availability is crap at the moment due to work (next 3-4 months) and behaving for my redundancy payout that will become my stake money for this project......

I wont waste your time at the moment but will shadow yourthreads picking up what I can........

cheers
N

Hi Forexmospherian

Great thread so far enjoy reading your posts and dare i publicly say it, Gave the thread FIVE stars.
Ho no here come the naysayers "One mans trash is another's treasure" In Yorkshire wee have a saying "Where theres muck theres brass" and on the coalface
its pretty mucky.

Granted iv only been involved in the Forex markets for 2yrs, the first year scouring the wed for information on anything to do with forex (FREE INFO THAT IS)
and once i get my teeth into something i want to know every thing i can (FOR FREE).

For the last year iv been studying Bob Volmans method and from what iv read from your posts there seems to be a common theme, ie stops within 5-6 pips 70 tick time
frame 10 pip target or there abouts so it is only logical with my inquisitive nature to at least listen to what you have to say.

Looking forward to the thread.
Y.T.

Thanks YT - and yes N will keep my offer open during the year for when ever you have a few weeks or several days you can spend 4 -6 hrs at your charts.

There's a lot to go through and i will cover 2 more areas before I call it a day for more

- Losses - and understanding how water moves ;-))

Forexmospherian said:

Thanks YT - and yes will keep my offer open during the year for win ever you have a few weeks or several days you can spend 4 -6 hrs at your charts.

There's a lot to go through and i will cover 2 more areas before I call it a day for more

- Losses - and understanding how water moves ;-))

Click to expand...

hi fxmos
this is my first post here on t2w,been trading on of for 5 years now and getting no were fast,blowing accounts,buying systems, strategys ,indicators,u name it i got it,so after reading your tread u seem to no what your talking about and to tell u the truth i still hav nt got profitable,so i will follow you on your travel's here cheers