FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

foroom lluzers said:
Although 80 % of new trends breakdown , I have opened a thread showing examples , there is no method to consistently make money from these failures .It is difficult to define such a method , if one was defined it would be difficult psychologically to trade it.

A picture says a thousand words , if you look at any chart , 80 % of the time they chop within ranges. Every time a trend is spotted , it reverses.

Well that picture doesn't tell you anything

So let's put some definition flesh around the rotten bones of yours:

1. By "breakout" you mean?

2. By "failed" you mean?

3.by "succeeded" you mean?

foroom lluzers · Jul 2, 2017

barjon said:
Well that picture doesn't tell you anything

So let's put some definition flesh around the rotten bones of yours:

1. By "breakout" you mean?Breakout of range of two sets peaks or troughs ,forming a horizontal line , on 4 hour charts

2. By "failed" you mean?It fails to go out of the range forming 1 consolidation in the middle of 2 sets of up moves or down moves

3.by "succeeded" you mean?

By succeeded means a trend has broken out.

BTW it is easy to say wait 3 months in front of a screen to trade 2/3 trends , but it is humanely impossible to sit and do nothing.

Dowser · Jul 2, 2017

You're a brave and patient man John

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffer_fools_gladly

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
By succeeded means a trend has broken out.
l:

By what? 1 point? 5 points? 2 days remaining above range high?, when it "looks" obvious after x days? What?

foroom lluzers · Jul 2, 2017

barjon said:
By what? 1 point? 5 points? 2 days remaining above range high?, when it "looks" obvious after x days? What?

At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .

Ok for first, but second unclear to me?

See you'd already answered the "what do you mean by break out? Same question there - by how much above your horizontal line 1 point, 5 point etc.?

Also not clear what you mean for the the "failed" definition?

foroom lluzers · Jul 2, 2017

barjon said:
Ok for first, but second unclear to me?

See you'd already answered the "what do you mean by break out? Same question there - by how much above your horizontal line 1 point, 5 point etc.?

Also not clear what you mean for the the "failed" definition?

Longs (the low +1 tick of a 30 min bar must be above a 4 hour horizontal (or diagnol resistance) line) and for short (support high must be 1 tick below 4 hr lows support line.).Diagonals are resistances /supports except sometimes they slightly tilted.

malaguti · Jul 2, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .

foroom lluzers said:
Longs (the low +1 tick of a 30 min bar must be above a 4 hour horizontal (or diagnol resistance) line) and for short (support high must be 1 tick below 4 hr lows support line.).Diagonals are resistances /supports except sometimes they slightly tilted.

which is it, the close is above the 4hrly resistance line, or the low is above it
are you still at school Foroom?
your village is waiting..

foroom lluzers · Jul 2, 2017

malaguti said:
which is it, the close is above the 4hrly resistance line, or the low is above it
are you still at school Foroom?
your village is waiting..

low has to close on close of bar , do you trade?

ftse is a low volatility index , traders call it the granma index.

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

I'm bed bound atm so can't post pics and I'm getting a bit lost, so let's take it in order:

A break out

Breakout of range of two sets peaks or troughs ,forming a horizontal line , on 4 hour charts

At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

That right? I presume you are just talking about a range bound instrument and not the break out to new highs (lows) in a trending instrument?

From a trading perspective have we arrived at an entry set up yet?

foroom lluzers · Jul 2, 2017

barjon said:
I'm bed bound atm so can't post pics and I'm getting a bit lost, so let's take it in order:

A break out

Breakout of range of two sets peaks or troughs ,forming a horizontal line , on 4 hour charts

At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

That right? I presume you are just talking about a range bound instrument and not the break out to new highs (lows) in a trending instrument?

From a trading perspective have we arrived at an entry set up yet?

At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance , made of two sets of 4 hour peaks , if it remains above , the resistance has become support ,buy long set up.

At least one 30 min bar high closes below 4 hourly support , made of two sets of 4 hour troughs , if it remains below , the support has become resistance ,sell short set up.

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance , made of two sets of 4 hour peaks , if it remains above , the resistance has become support ,buy long set up.

At least one 30 min bar high closes below 4 hourly support , made of two sets of 4 hour troughs , if it remains below , the support has become resistance ,sell short set up.

So that's what you said defined a "successful" break out which, in turn, sets a long(short) entry? Need to be a lot more precise about entry since that 30 minute bar is of indeterminate length and could be pretty long. We would be pretty late into the game and you like to be ahead of the field.

It seems you're not defining success in terms of trading success? Rather odd, that, since trading is what we are about.

foroom lluzers · Jul 2, 2017

barjon said:
So that's what you said defined a "successful" break out which, in turn, sets a long(short) entry? Need to be a lot more precise about entry since that 30 minute bar is of indeterminate length and could be pretty long. We would be pretty late into the game and you like to be ahead of the field.

It seems you're not defining success in terms of trading success? Rather odd, that, since trading is what we are about.

There are several precise set ups one can take after a breakout , i.e 30 min low close above 4 hour resistances line .

a)A 200 tick chart up channel formed above the 4 hour resistance
b)Moving average diagnol up support (all mas slanting up)
c)test and retest of resistance (a double bottom on 30 m above the 4 hour resistance)
d)fundamental drivers with breakout
e)long legged 4 hour doji (the genius's name pin bar )

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
There are several precise set ups one can take after a breakout , i.e 30 min low close above 4 hour resistances line .

a)A 200 tick chart up channel formed above the 4 hour resistance
b)Moving average diagnol up support (all mas slanting up)
c)test and retest of resistance (a double bottom on 30 m above the 4 hour resistance)
d)fundamental drivers with breakout
e)long legged 4 hour doji (the genius's name pin bar )

Yes, there's always lots you can dream up and use. The question is do you and how do you determine what is "success" or "failure" from a a trading perspective (the only one that counts). 'Course you just "set and walk away" relying on your "patience" with good or bad luck when you do next decide to take a peek at it.

If you think that's a professional way to trade then I shouldn't go after any trading jobs if I were you.

As we have gone through this, what you have demonstrated is one way that you can approach the mechanics of break outs (in a limited scenario) without seeking to link that to any trading methodology or indication of how to go about taking any profit or loss. Anything to do with actual trading has been left to me to raise.

That speaks volumes to me.

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

barjon said:
Yes, there's always lots you can dream up and use. The question is do you and how do you determine what is "success" or "failure" from a a trading perspective (the only one that counts). 'Course you just "set and walk away" relying on your "patience" with good or bad luck when you do next decide to take a peek at it.

If you think that's a professional way to trade then I shouldn't go after any trading jobs if I were you.

As we have gone through this, what you have demonstrated is one way that you can approach the mechanics of break outs (in a limited scenario) without seeking to link that to any trading methodology or indication of how to go about taking any profit or loss. Anything to do with actual trading has been left to me to raise.

That speaks volumes to me.

Ps: nor does it demonstrate any reason whatsoever why you can rightly sit yourself above T2W members and write them off as know nothings, losers and goats. Epithets that have a far better home to reside in.

foroom lluzers · Jul 2, 2017

barjon said:
If you think that's a professional way to trade then I shouldn't go after any trading jobs if I were you.

That speaks volumes to me.

It is a professional way to trade , if you are a trader .On the other hand , if I was work for brokers and buckets shops , I would contradict my behaviors , so this game is biased.

Do really successful traders like George Sorros look for trading jobs?The ones who do are NOT upto it , because they can't make money ......like the authors ....from trading ...they write books and sell the holy grail method with hindsight results.

barjon · Jul 2, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
It is a professional way to trade , if you are a trader .On the other hand , if I was work for brokers and buckets shops , I would contradict my behaviors , so this game is biased.

Do really successful traders like George Sorros look for trading jobs?The ones who do are NOT upto it , because they can't make money ......like the authors ....from trading ...they write books and sell the holy grail method with hindsight results.

Oh, I'm so desperately sorry, I hadn't appreciated you were on a par with George Sorros. Take back all I said, you are indeed one of the greatest. I bow down to you oh mighty one for thou art the Lord of Trading and thy words the Holy Grail of the trading business.

foroom lluzers · Jul 17, 2017

Here is 2007 eur usd chart , show me in hindsight where breakouts would have made money and how much money in pips is fine.

Believe me , most traders lost money for 9 continuous months trading breakouts .You have not changed my view at all , and I keep posting images of failure of breakouts here.By the time you get to a breakout it is reversing.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/224246-trend-trading-failure-trend-breakouts.html

Please show statistics , results and evidence.You have shown zero evidence.

Trend trading hedge performed in 2016 struggling to make money in four of the past five years.Just type in on google "performance of trend trading funds"

https://www.ft.com/content/9df7ccec-dcc4-11e5-827d-4dfbe0213e07?mhq5j=e2

barjon · Jul 17, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
Here is 2007 eur usd chart , show me in hindsight where breakouts would have made money and how much money in pips is fine.

Believe me , most traders lost money for 9 continuous months trading breakouts .You have not changed my view at all , and I keep posting images of failure of breakouts here.By the time you get to a breakout it is reversing.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/224246-trend-trading-failure-trend-breakouts.html

Please show statistics , results and evidence.You have shown zero evidence.

Trend trading hedge performed in 2016 struggling to make money in four of the past five years.Just type in on google "performance of trend trading funds"

https://www.ft.com/content/9df7ccec-dcc4-11e5-827d-4dfbe0213e07?mhq5j=e2

It's no good joining the fray again late on, presumably because I've drawn attention to the thread elsewhere.

It was you who made the statement that 80% of breakouts fail and it is, therefore, for you to produce the evidence to substantiate that claim. First of all, of course, you must define what you mean by breakout and what you mean by fail or succeed. Those definitions not only cover the actual movement of price but, more importantly, the trading tactics in relation to that movement and the result.

So far as the chart you posted is concerned, you should be able to see for yourself where breakouts would have made money. Again, since you made the statement, perhaps you should point out the 80% that failed.

darktone · Jul 17, 2017

foroom lluzers said:
Here is 2007 eur usd chart , show me in hindsight where breakouts would have made money and how much money in pips is fine.

Believe me , most traders lost money for 9 continuous months trading breakouts .You have not changed my view at all , and I keep posting images of failure of breakouts here.By the time you get to a breakout it is reversing.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/224246-trend-trading-failure-trend-breakouts.html

Please show statistics , results and evidence.You have shown zero evidence.

Trend trading hedge performed in 2016 struggling to make money in four of the past five years.Just type in on google "performance of trend trading funds"

https://www.ft.com/content/9df7ccec-dcc4-11e5-827d-4dfbe0213e07?mhq5j=e2

providing youre not a puker or a girlpants that who to give back 4/5 of their profits in option blankys, any BO on that chart would have given the player a chance at profit.

FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

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