FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

[foroom lluzers]

I am already doing that in my own thread , I have also read the evidence of FT on the poor performance of trend trading funds.

Michael Covel's friend John Henry quit managing trend trading funds in 2007 after poor performance.I have nothing to gain by carrying on this argument , I have a strategy/methods that work.

 

[tomorton]

I don't see losing traders as trading break-outs. I would have said they like charts that show strong uptrends or downtrends from corner to corner. The sort you see on the wall of a cartoon business office. I only see them discarding charts that show prices going from middle left to middle right, saying, "There's nothing happening here, move on". Then they seek out reversals for the dramatic big scores. They see themselves as the predator waiting to pounce at the bottom or top. They love reversal chart patterns like H&S and double tops.

They look for a lottery win on every trade. And that's why they lose.

 

[barjon]

I am already doing that in my own thread , I have also read the evidence of FT on the poor performance of trend trading funds.

Michael Covel's friend John Henry quit managing trend trading funds in 2007 after poor performance.I have nothing to gain by carrying on this argument , I have a strategy/methods that work.

No, you don't have anything to gain, just a lot of credibility to lose as you struggle to back up your 80% assertion. We'll leave it at that shall we? People can arrive at their own conclusions.

 

[foroom lluzers]

providing youre not a puker or a girlpants that who to give back 4/5 of their profits in option blankys, any BO on that chart would have given the player a chance at profit.

If any breakout would have made money , how many lost in that 9 months?The volatility was very low .If you want more information , they were trading Newton's Hans breakout system in 2007 , the poor buggars lost 6/7 figures.I was watching them report.

 

[darktone]

If any breakout would have made money , how many lost in that 9 months?The volatility was very low .If you want more information , they were trading Newton's Hans breakout system in 2007 , the poor buggars lost 6/7 figures.I was watching them report.

Then its prolly a pukey system be executed by tarders eh. The same folks with the same mindsets and approach probably would have done just as bad playing the dips.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Then its prolly a pukey system be executed by tarders eh. The same folks with the same mindsets and approach probably would have done just as bad playing the dips.

It was a fixed daily breakout system ,it was also on E A , so mindsets were not applicable.

 

[darktone]

It was a fixed daily breakout system ,it was also on E A , so mindsets were not applicable.

So mindsets didnt have anything to do with design of the EA eh!? Let us take our
fear fueled beliefs and code it! Boom what can wrong.

Mindsets have nothing to do with hitting the start and stop button eh!? DD starts to edge out the sim results, let us do the logical thing and pull the plug :smart:

This system, use stops does it?

 

[foroom lluzers]

So mindsets didnt have anything to do with design of the EA eh!? Let us take our
fear fueled beliefs and code it! Boom what can wrong.

Mindsets have nothing to do with hitting the start and stop button eh!? DD starts to edge out the sim results, let us do the logical thing and pull the plug :smart:

This system, use stops does it?

Buy stop sell stop orders were used in a daily /opening range breakout system , on most days price went to the buy stop level , got triggered and reversed , on other days price went to the sell stop zone ,trade gets triggered and reversed .The orders were placed twice a day , set and forget strategy .

Oil trading mentor came to the forums , showed hindsight highly profitable results to everybody , after a few years of trending on eur usd , all the suckers believed him and started following the guru.

In the first 9 months of 2007 volatility died on eur usd , it was average around 50 pips a day , this mentor leading everybody to losses , was a clear case of the blind leading the blind .Even if spacsavers offered a deal , two of you can come and get two pairs of glasses for the price of one pair , you would not be able to see any profitable trend trading on 2007 eur/usd charts.


I still can't see any profitable trading , even in hindsight trading , on eur/usd charts for 2007.

 

[darktone]

Buy stop sell stop orders were used in a daily /opening range breakout system , on most days price went to the buy stop level , got triggered and reversed , on other days price went to the sell stop zone ,trade gets triggered and reversed .The orders were placed twice a day , set and forget strategy .

Oil trading mentor came to the forums , showed hindsight highly profitable results to everybody , after a few years of trending on eur usd , all the suckers believed him and started following the guru.

In the first 9 months of 2007 volatility died on eur usd , it was average around 50 pips a day , this mentor leading everybody to losses , was a clear case of the blind leading the blind .Even if spacsavers offered a deal , two of you can come and get two pairs of glasses for the price of one pair , you would not be able to see any profitable trend trading on 2007 eur/usd charts.


I still can't see any profitable trading , even in hindsight trading , on eur/usd charts for 2007.

Of course you cant, you got the old blinkies on :cheesy:

Lets have a look at how two tarders could have made out longing EU.
Tarder A thinks a 1 box stop an TP is king for xyz reason and comes away something break even on the trip.
Tarder B thinks a 6 box stop an TP rules for xyz reason and scores 100% win rate thus far and still holds 3 or 4 tardes.
Can you see how they might have vastly different views? Just lift the blinkies for a sec

----------------------------------

And then we have another tarder who believes 80% of breakouts fail, off he trots to google to find find the true true facts.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Buy stop sell stop orders were used in a daily /opening range breakout system , on most days price went to the buy stop level , got triggered and reversed , on other days price went to the sell stop zone ,trade gets triggered and reversed .The orders were placed twice a day , set and forget strategy .

Oil trading mentor came to the forums , showed hindsight highly profitable results to everybody , after a few years of trending on eur usd , all the suckers believed him and started following the guru.

In the first 9 months of 2007 volatility died on eur usd , it was average around 50 pips a day , this mentor leading everybody to losses , was a clear case of the blind leading the blind .Even if spacsavers offered a deal , two of you can come and get two pairs of glasses for the price of one pair , you would not be able to see any profitable trend trading on 2007 eur/usd charts.


I still can't see any profitable trading , even in hindsight trading , on eur/usd charts for 2007.

The key reason these systems dont work long term is that break outs are not defined properly. If a decision is based on trend as the underlying, then the break out must be in the direction of the trend. So if trend is deemed to be up, a break out must be long only. A short range break out, means that you sell into an uptrend, so this is a dip buying opportunity, not a trade to go in the stats column for a break out method, or as I hate to say it "failed break out" - it NEVER failed as it was never a break out in the 1st place.

We cant box the market.

 

[foroom lluzers]

The key reason these systems dont work long term is that break outs are not defined properly. If a decision is based on trend as the underlying, then the break out must be in the direction of the trend. So if trend is deemed to be up, a break out must be long only. A short range break out, means that you sell into an uptrend, so this is a dip buying opportunity, not a trade to go in the stats column for a break out method, or as I hate to say it "failed break out" - it NEVER failed as it was never a break out in the 1st place.

We cant box the market.

The whole definition of trend is subjective ,

Trend 1 : tick 200 , 30 m and 4 hr time frames

Trend 2 : tick 50 /tick 300 /15 m

It is all very different depending on biases and beliefs , others would say they saw saw trends where you did not , corrections or trends is irrelevant.