Trading the E-mini

robster970

robster970

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So from Monday, I am going to post up some basic pre-session analysis, post mortem trades and some post match analysis. In this you will see the flexibility and also the humanity of discretionary trading, the ups and downs, the 20+ pt days and the 6% down loss limit days.

I tried to do this about this time last year and managed for about 3 months before it just became too much. I'm going to have a go again. I can't do live calls. I have tried and find that entry is fine but trade management suffers badly and I rely heavily on trade management to grind results out.

Let's see how long I can keep this up for. Other index traders - feel free to post your trades in this thread either live or not.

See you Monday morning.
 
Prep#1 for 4/3/13

A quick look tonight on how things settled at the close on Friday:

- Buyers came in slightly higher than I expected around the 1500 area - it was quite a strong rejection
- A higher low has formed hinting that buyers are back in control - note, no higher high has formed yet as 23/25 was rejected on the second attempt.
- It's trading above the 13.75 LVN - this is an area of interest for me tomorrow.
- 19/20 is proving to be hard to break right now - there is another LVN at 19.75 and again, this is an area of interest for me.
- There has been tons of volume traded between 10-20 with the bulk of it lying just under the 19/20 area - this is quite a tight concentration of volume.

So on the radar for tomorrow:

1513/14
1519/20
1523/25

How it behaves around these levels will inform me on how to trade. Let's see how the Asian session shapes things and assess again at 6am tomorrow.
 
Prep#2 for 4/3/13

Asian session has highlighted weakness and it is now trading below 13.75. Minor trend is downwards now until we see buyers stepping in. Alternatively it will be interesting to see whether Europe takes price back above the 13.75 LVN

Areas to come into play now

1500/1501 - Low from Friday
1496/1497 - SbR and we'll see whether it becomes S again. Got my eye on this level as I think the money is lurking below here.

For those of a geeky disposition, the O/N low at around 7.50 is approx 1 Standard Deviation of price movement away from Friday's settlement price of 1516.50 based upon the Put/Call implied vol for SPX @ 1515.00

No major US news out today although Eurozone Producer Price Index is out this morning.
 
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Hope you don't mind.

Here's me - same day...

04-03-201307-47-13_zpsd9162925.png


Longer term range – 1481.75 – 1530
Value Area of longer term range – 1491.75 – 1516.25

We are now sitting at the upper end of value of our newly established range. If the range is to continue, then sellers should come in between here and 1530 and push us down to 1491.75.

Monday/Thursday high of 1424.50 seems a pretty logical line in the sand for the upside and Fridays low 1499.50 to the downside.

Yesterdays Range – 1499.50 – 1519
Yesterdays Value Area – 1511.50 – 1519
Overnight - 1507 – 1516.50

Overnight is slightly above average in terms of volume but is within yesterdays range.
 
@Pedro - just like last year isn't it :)

Prep#3 for 4/3/13

Europe struggled to make it higher that 13's but eventually broke through and is loitering just below the NVPOC and the 18/19 sticky area.

All areas mentioned in the previous prep's are in flight for me with the exception of 13/14 - bias is marginally on the long side but am interested in behaviour around 18/19 to frame the early part of the day for me and to see where buyers may come in with some gusto.

Good trading folks.
 
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No trades taken today because nothing has happened around my candidate zones. Am packing up. Back again later after close with start of prep for tomorrow.
 
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With 1 hour to close Dow Jones is 40 points from all time high. I'm looking for a push up near close, although it's been a really pathetic day with low volume. I'm going to try stealing a point or 2 from the e-mini if volume picks up.

Peter
 
wackypete2 said:
With 1 hour to close Dow Jones is 40 points from all time high. I'm looking for a push up near close, although it's been a really pathetic day with low volume. I'm going to try stealing a point or 2 from the e-mini if volume picks up.

Peter
Click to expand...

Go on my son!!!

e2a - I doubt it will break 24.50 tonight Pete. Expect 19 through to 25 to fill out a bit more tomorrow and then leg up into the rarefied atmosphere of 25-30+
 
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not looking like any move is imminent so no trade for me.

Weighing my options on an overnight trade. There's no doubt the highs will be broken soon. Getting the right entry is what's difficult (and trying sleep with an open trade is a challenge!)

Peter
 
wackypete2 said:
not looking like any move is imminent so no trade for me.

Weighing my options on an overnight trade. There's no doubt the highs will be broken soon. Getting the right entry is what's difficult (and trying sleep with an open trade is a challenge!)

Peter
Click to expand...

There's 25 - spoke too soon!! :whistling
 
Overnight pending trade: ES

Daily chart shown

Higher lows past few days. High of 1529-30 reached on 2 consecutive days. Also, we see some balance around 1521-22. I'll wait for a pullback to buy and target 1530. Stop is just below today's open price as that would signal a longer wait for a rally up to the high, OR close position if in the red at close of NYSE trading tomorrow. Order is for 2 contracts. The target is good for overnight in the event there's a good move so I don't miss out if it retraces. I will reevaluate tomorrow morning.

Limit Buy Order @ 1520.50
Stop 1514.50
Target 1530

Risk: 6.00
Reward: 9.50

Peter
 

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robster970 said:
No trades taken today because nothing has happened around my candidate zones. Am packing up. Back again later after close with start of prep for tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Robster and fellow members:

I found a trade again today, and normally I day trade on trending days, but I have really started looking at day trading futures regardless. And this setup has occurred more than once and I am wondering if it is viable, if it something you guys look at.

Anyhow I paper traded it today literally wrote down where I would go long on the /YM at 14026 and then it took off the rest of the day... but this is what I was looking at... I noticed when the up/down volume really started to tank, but the advancing / declining issues not nearly as bad... divergence if you will. Every time I have spotted this it seems to work. I believe it shows the the lack of weakness on the sell off, which presents an opportunity to go long.... However I do wait for confirmation that it is turning around before going long, and would put the stop at the bottom of the support area.

Look at today's internals of what I was watching and let me know what you guys think. The yellow lines I drew to give you guys an idea of what I was talking about.
 

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I'm with Pete here -- looking for a pullback to go long. I'm looking at the 24-25 or 18-20 area as potential entries. All depends on how the overnight reacts.
 
Prep#1 - 5/3/13

So it made a higher-high finally confirming the assertion that the buyers are back in control and we're likely to be on for a test of the high. Bias is long going into today.

Asia has traded flat/drifting downwards so my expectation is for Europe to try and push up a little but leave the hard work of the test for the high to the US session.

Areas of interest:

1518/1520 - This is the LVN for the new value area, R>S and also 1SD from settlement price based upon SPX implied vol.
1523/1524 - R>S but this isn't a significant level even though Asian session has used it for support.
1529/1530 - The high

I am basically expecting the 1520-1530 area to thicken out with volume before a new high is made and sustained. Think about what is coming out on Friday and how major players will be getting positioned already for this.

ISM non-manufacturing at 15:00 today and some other US minor news.
Eurozone retail sales at 10:00
 
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wino59 said:
Robster and fellow members:

Lots of good stuff.........
Click to expand...

What you have effectively identified is a good quality pullback on a trend where (a) buyers have backed off a little and (b) a small amount of sellers are taking profits/covering their shorts. This causes the wave like effect of forward/back/forward back where the back doesn't have a lot of oomph to it. The indicator combo is just telling you what your eye can already see - it's a little sell-off and orderflow imbalance allowing buyers to come back in at lower prices.

Anyway Wino - welcome :)
 
Limit Buy Order @ 1520.50
Stop 1514.50
Target 1530

Risk: 6.00
Reward: 9.50
Click to expand...

Target hit!!! - err, but without me :mad:

Barely any pullback at all so my limit order just sat in left field (n)

CANCEL this order.

Peter
 
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