Trading with mp6140

mp6140 · Mar 2, 2008

TheRumpledOne said:
ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE IS A HORIZONTAL LINE

TRADING IS SIMPLE.
There is an entire industry built around making you think it is complicated.
All you need is a HORIZONTAL LINE on your chart to be a profitable trader.

================================================================

about 6 years ago I made my trading method for equities available and received over 5000 dowloads and one of the strongest points I made then was the "prior days closing price", which is what TRO refers to as the "horizontal line"

If it is used on the first or second day of a stocks move (or most any other trading vehicle also) it is invariably correct that the closing price of that days move will be to the upside ---- on day 3, one takes profit by 11:30AM, EST at the latest and watches to see what the currency will then do, which is invariably selloff !

there then becomes a "second run" a few days later, which can be determined by following "muddys method", using either a mathematical retracement, or a "zone" created by a moving average "area" (google for more information)

in the case of most trades, during a single day, there is a time when the move is up, then a retrace as shares are sold, shorted and accumulated for the afternoons run ---- this exists with stocks, bonds, commodities, futures, forex and baseball trading cards and is of no surprise to the experienced trader at all --- in fact, its how traders and mm's make their best profits !

so when you have a stock move past its "prior close horizontal line", take a look at what day in its movement youre on, and if its the FIRST DAY BREAKOUT, you will have a reasonably strong move right to the closing bell, on the SECOND DAY you enter immediately upon that cross, realizing that the currency, stock or whatever will usually drop BELOW the prior close and then come back up again as everyone grabs cheap shares for the next runup and exit before noon if you are daytrading, or hold the currency for the day and sell at the open of the third days upside move (but get out reasonably fast, as its a rare stock that wont profit take on day 3.

paper trade the above and see if you like it or not, and then get your horizontal lines sharpened up and ready to go !

enjoy and trade well

FOREX FOREVER !!

mp

mp6140 · Mar 2, 2008

MP -- mondays aint so bad if you carry a shotgun on wall street !

bansir said:
Thanks for your observations and feedback Trendie, much appreciated.
What is it about Monday?
All the Wednesdays and Thursdays were winners.

Got to go, family calls!

Very Best Regards,
Neil

============================================================

OH MY --- Im gonna put dollars against cops doughnuts that you dont have a LOT of experience in the market, and I dont mean that as an insult !

the market "fakes" monday mornings ---- let us say the overnite asian market was negative, when US opens, the pros usually drive the price UP, reach resistance, and then resume the original direction move.

By noon (est) only the US is left trading, and the powers that be now REVERSE the market, sell off their shares and SHORT the market (or go long if the original move was short).

If you use a tight stop loss, you will get caught in the downdraft and your positive trade will become negative and then negative becomes ALL GONE !

forex is a "trending" beast, and one must remember that it reverses EVERY day (except the first day of a breakout, usually !) and what went UP will now go DOWN !

you must be prepared for this, and either exit before noon (same with equities and the DOW index) or stay with it, accept this part of the days drawdown, and wait for the upside reversal at midnite, which will then close your currency at a higher price than you bought it at (at least thats whats in the script !)

Mondays, for the newb, therefore seem tougher than other days, simply because they fake you and you dont have the experience to handle it !

enjoy and trade well

mp

bansir · Mar 3, 2008

mp6140 said:
OH MY --- Im gonna put dollars against cops doughnuts that you dont have a LOT of experience in the market, and I dont mean that as an insult !

Hi mp

,

Forex market phases, patterns etc. Interesting .......

the market "fakes" monday mornings ---- let us say the overnite asian market was negative, when US opens, the pros usually drive the price UP, reach resistance, and then resume the original direction move.

I guess what you describe above is the opening gap phenomenon, yes?

By noon (est) only the US is left trading, and the powers that be now REVERSE the market, sell off their shares and SHORT the market (or go long if the original move was short).

Then it gets filled as per your quote above.

If you use a tight stop loss, you will get caught in the downdraft and your positive trade will become negative and then negative becomes ALL GONE !

Well hopefully the idea of using stops is to prevent the "all gone" state of affairs.

forex is a "trending" beast, and one must remember that it reverses EVERY day (except the first day of a breakout, usually !) and what went UP will now go DOWN !

Are you saying generally all forex pairs trend to some degree, or are you referring just to the major pairs?

you must be prepared for this, and either exit before noon (same with equities and the DOW index) or stay with it, accept this part of the days drawdown, and wait for the upside reversal at midnite, which will then close your currency at a higher price than you bought it at (at least thats whats in the script !)

I'm just demo testing TRO's BUY ZONE strategy which uses a horizontal line drawn at the open of every hour. So every hour you trade, you set up new zones.
I think perhaps your comments are more in line with the daily buy zone strategy which I believe is where the hourly strategy came from. Maybe TRO can help me out here?

Mondays, for the newb, therefore seem tougher than other days, simply because they fake you and you dont have the experience to handle it !

Well the limited amount of results I have so far Mondays and Fridays have been where the most points are lost, wouldn't say they were any tougher though. They're just the same as the other days; essentially you take the entry, set the stop and exit on the target or when your stop is hit.

I am very interested in improving my feel for the forex market patterns, many thanks for your information mp.

Best Regards,
Neil

mp6140 · Mar 3, 2008

bansir said:
Hi mp ,

Forex market phases, patterns etc. Interesting .......

The value of knowing WHEN the market changes directions is as important as to where your support and resistance lies --- fortunately, it lies with all trading vehicles and can be learned easily simply by observation. As a manual trader, I play the morning game and after noon (except on day one of a strong trend) do a "set and forget" trade off of the 30, H1 or H4, depending on how long i want to wait to get a good meal !

I guess what you describe above is the opening gap phenomenon, yes?

Those words are not known to me, as the only gap Im usually aware of is on day 3 of a move --- more with equities than with forex though !

Then it gets filled as per your quote above.

Maybe yes, maybe no ---- depends completely on the trend, when the trade was entered, and how much the price moved away from it. I can tell you on a real trading day, but not with a general question, unfortunately !

Well hopefully the idea of using stops is to prevent the "all gone" state of affairs.

YOU CANT BELIEVE HOW LONG IVE BEEN WAITING FOR YOU TO ASK THAT QUESTION !!!!!
My current teaching, along with a few others who have explored this situation, is that stop losses HURT you and do not help --- stop losses are there for those who DO NOT KNOW what they are doing, cannot establish a daily, weekly or monthly trend, or even an intraday one --- with only the smallest amount of experience, I have seen newbs go from silly losers to very nice winners, simply because they didnt lose their money to a stop loss ! Its a foreign concept, I will agree --- BUT lets take this as an example --- you enter long near the US open, but your tp point is higher than your pair reached since your broker saw it would cost him 3 billion dollars if he hit your tp, so he (she/it ?) reversed the uptrend at 11:15, which had all the banks screaming, but he was the top dog that day and could get away with it. Now you face the currency making a kamakazie dive for support from 3 months away, when the share price was 1/3 of todays price.

Somewhere along that dive, your stop loss is gonna get creamed, and your billion dollar profit now becomes a billion dollar loss. You look around the prop shop youre working in, knowing the Mafia supported owner is gonna break you like a snickers bar, your life flashes before you, and you sink to your knees whimpering "mommy -- help !"

OR, with NO stoploss, you could watch the dials on the depth guage revolve lower and lower, light up your cuban cigar and wait contentedly because WHAT GOES DOWN ALWAYS COMES UP ! Knowing this you could average down, once or many times, and when the day ends you have tripled what would have been your billion dollar gain, your Mafia supported boss is beaming, and you are awarded the title of "consigliatorei" with all the rights and rewards that go with it !

THATS why i dont use STOPLOSSES !

Are you saying generally all forex pairs trend to some degree, or are you referring just to the major pairs?

ALL forex pairs trend, just that some can make the trip in 2 days and some in 2 weeks --- Put up an LRC (linear regression channel) or use the custom indicator "true SHI" (which does the same thing) AND watch what happens as the currency pair makes its way to the TOP of the channel, then reverses back down to the BOTTOM of the channel, and check it on the daily, weekly and monthly charts --- it will show you WHERE your pair is heading, and when you get good, will even tell you how long the trip will probably take, like one of those Japanese auto robots !

I'm just demo testing TRO's BUY ZONE strategy which uses a horizontal line drawn at the open of every hour. So every hour you trade, you set up new zones.
I think perhaps your comments are more in line with the daily buy zone strategy which I believe is where the hourly strategy came from. Maybe TRO can help me out here?

Im sure he can, but minute by minute, hour by hour or daily, the concept is the same.

Well the limited amount of results I have so far Mondays and Fridays have been where the most points are lost, wouldn't say they were any tougher though. They're just the same as the other days; essentially you take the entry, set the stop and exit on the target or when your stop is hit.

ok, wont fight on "tougher" but they can be a bit more flakey, as on monday everyone has finished blowing coke over the weekend and now get shakily down to business, and on friday, everyone has BOUGHT their coke, and want to get the heck out of town, invariably with someone elses wife, and blow that stash again ! (which of course now leads us to monday, but you already know that story !
Fridays, naturally is the "wash up" day, and traders bail their longs or cover their shorts, but its usually a pretty strong and decent trading day because its trend is usually only one sided !

I am very interested in improving my feel for the forex market patterns, many thanks for your information mp.

Now that Ive explained every trading market in the world, can i get back to trading --- Ive got to make some money for my clients also, you know !

Best Regards,
Neil

enjoy and trade well

mp

mp6140 · Mar 3, 2008

MP -- where o where can my profit point be ??

bansir said:
Hi UCS,
Are you looking at spread betting this strategy?
If so, 'CapitalSpreads' and 'Tradindex' offer demo accounts that might fit the bill for you.
There are plenty of others available though; I'm just quoting the ones I've used.

Just a quick question re your idea:
Say you sell on the open and the price moves down giving a profit taking opportunity.,
when would you close this position? How would you decide to take profits?

Best Regards,
Neil

================================================================

add an overlay called "support and resistance" (YES, the "and" must be in there cause theres about 100 of them) and if you use fibs and the s+r, it will stick out like a sore thumb !

"###auto pivot" is handy also, and if you get a confirmation between a fib, an s+r and one of the pivots, BET THE FARM !!

your little old dutch uncle who just dabbles in the forex market and enjoys being rich !

mp

enjoy and trade well

mp6140 · Mar 4, 2008

Upcomingstockmaster said:
I didnt understand one bit of this. Autopivot? Fib? Support and resistance???
=================================================================
If youre serious, and I pray you are not, DO NOT GO NEAR REAL MONEY for a very long time !

TAKE SOME TIME ==== all the time in the world, and learn what those words mean PLEASE !

mp

wilkelec · Mar 6, 2008

Great topic. Its my first post!!! So hello everyone. I agree that things seem to hit support lines but indicators also help in trading. Simple fact being if a whole industry is built up on telling you this is what you need to do then some people like it or not will be doing it. If that percentage is influental enough then there is opportunity to make a profit just as much as saying this is my buy and sell zone. My main observations have been that people take every pip as an indication of direction. Like everyone says you cant be attatched emotionally. What goes down seems to come back up and vice versa anyway. Its all random. Where do you draw the lines? On every bar dating back to find resistance? Is it relevant to other people's resistance levels on a diferent chart time? There are so many variables that you soon see that even support and resistance is chance. Maybe because so many people believe it and set there limits thats why you get another candle stick that holds on your support/resistance??? Just my thought's!!!!

mp6140 · Mar 6, 2008

wilkelec said:
Great topic. Its my first post!!! So hello everyone. I agree that things seem to hit support lines but indicators also help in trading. Simple fact being if a whole industry is built up on telling you this is what you need to do then some people like it or not will be doing it. If that percentage is influental enough then there is opportunity to make a profit just as much as saying this is my buy and sell zone. My main observations have been that people take every pip as an indication of direction. Like everyone says you cant be attatched emotionally. What goes down seems to come back up and vice versa anyway. Its all random. Where do you draw the lines? On every bar dating back to find resistance? Is it relevant to other people's resistance levels on a diferent chart time? There are so many variables that you soon see that even support and resistance is chance. Maybe because so many people believe it and set there limits thats why you get another candle stick that holds on your support/resistance??? Just my thought's!!!!

===============================================================

Precisely the reason it works, as do most any method of trading that is not based on throwing chicken bones, spinning around 3 times to the left, and collapsing in a puff of smoke ----- support and resistance chart overlays are readily available for the MT4 platform, and used by everyone from the traders in the tall buildings on wall street, to the guy who polishes their shoes as they enter this grand building.

Now as far as RANDOM ---- NO WAY ! every single move made ends at a fib point or a s+r point --- all you have to do is know what they are, and software has sure made that a simple thing now.

theres more to it, but without the framework of any particular type of s+r, you might as well be a chicken bone thrower !

enjoy and trade well

mp

wilkelec · Mar 6, 2008

Just a change of subject but has anyone else been cashing in on the GBP/USD with a BUY??? I mean forget support and resistance this thing has been climbing for forever and today is looking to set new highs. Its setup perfect on all indicators and showing little sign of a turn around. Making huge money while you sleep. Thats the way I like it

wilkelec · Mar 6, 2008

wow 2.0054 and still climbing

wilkelec · Mar 6, 2008

great thing about a bad economy is the currency always gets weaker. Bring on the next subprime mortgage bust lol

mp6140 · Mar 13, 2008

bansir said:
HOn Tuesday I went long with a -6 pip stop. I got filled 13 pips up from where I wanted.
Before I could drag the stop up, the price moved down 19 pips and took it out.
I went short straight away and closed for +18 pips. Very unsettling.
This was around 12 to 12:30 around the start of US session.

Best Regards,
Neil

===============================================================

When trading equities, the first rule of stops is to have a VERY loose one and tighten as the price increases ------ Ive never seen it printed concerning forex, so let us consider it now done !

of course, those who know me are fully aware that I dont use ANY stoplosses, cause I enjoy making money more than i enjoy losing it.

having done 332 pips as of 4:30 pm, est, I'll figure Im doing something right !

enjoy and trade well

mp

bansir · Mar 14, 2008

mp6140 said:
having done 332 pips as of 4:30 pm, est, I'll figure Im doing something right !

enjoy and trade well

mp

Hi mp6140,
332 pips before tea time! Wow, well done! you're amazing.

Best Regards,
Neil

mp6140 · Mar 15, 2008

Mp -- Yeah, A Decent Day !

a few people here may know me and like me, while there are arguements galore over my principal of using no stoplosses, but my ideas seem to get some decent approvals, considering the emails and pm's Ive been getting from newbs who are suddenly MAKING money and not losing it.

Not in the nature of bragging, but forex is a VERY predictable (ONCE you know the rules) trading medium because all it ever wants to do over the longer term is follow its TREND !

what appears to be random movements are simply well orchestrated mm moves to make the most possible for their firms intraday, while still sticking with the trend, even if it was knocked off base by news or Godzilla !

forex loves and depends upon support and resistance, and leaves little else on the plate of consequence ---- once you have experience (and NOTHING can beat it, as so often said !) you can TELL where the currency is going, although when working the higher timeframes, one cannot always tell when it will get there due to intraday trading. But whatever happens, the price WILL get there !

Ive been told I teach the "holy grail", but I doubt that --- I simply have seen how the market works, designed my methods of trading to fit into how the mkt works, and so do decently as a retail trader.

It DOES take some experience, but underneath I firmly feel anyone can make a decent living at this --- some better and some less as is the way of the world, but ALL can succeed if they learn and dont think of forex as an easy place to make money --- it is, but it takes real time and real learning and understanding.

BUT, none of it is brain surgery and none is beyond any of us --- you just need to want to do it !

thnx for the comments, cause it helps while posting this stuff.

enjoy and trade well

mp

bansir said:
Hi mp6140,
332 pips before tea time! Wow, well done! you're amazing.

Best Regards,
Neil

wilkelec · Mar 15, 2008

That method works for me but if everyone traded it we would all be forced to use the quick grab technique and I dont want to do that. So how about you go make 332 pips and write a book in a few years time when you retire and we have all made a profit. I know this method is not a well kept secret but pushing the industry curve ball adds dumb money and dumb money means profits!!!! I agree allowing the enemy to know your take out zone is a dumb idea and I also figure that its a greater risk to target a trade without a stop loss because of the amount of people that can profit with large sums of money while they aim for the percentage to remove you. Flying under the radar so to speak. Risk reward etc etc. Good luck with the trades.

Splitlink · Mar 15, 2008

mp6140 said:
a few people here may know me and like me, while there are arguements galore over my principal of using no stoplosses, but my ideas seem to get some decent approvals, considering the emails and pm's Ive been getting from newbs who are suddenly MAKING money and not losing it.

Not in the nature of bragging, but forex is a VERY predictable (ONCE you know the rules) trading medium because all it ever wants to do over the longer term is follow its TREND !

what appears to be random movements are simply well orchestrated mm moves to make the most possible for their firms intraday, while still sticking with the trend, even if it was knocked off base by news or Godzilla !

forex loves and depends upon support and resistance, and leaves little else on the plate of consequence ---- once you have experience (and NOTHING can beat it, as so often said !) you can TELL where the currency is going, although when working the higher timeframes, one cannot always tell when it will get there due to intraday trading. But whatever happens, the price WILL get there !

Ive been told I teach the "holy grail", but I doubt that --- I simply have seen how the market works, designed my methods of trading to fit into how the mkt works, and so do decently as a retail trader.

It DOES take some experience, but underneath I firmly feel anyone can make a decent living at this --- some better and some less as is the way of the world, but ALL can succeed if they learn and dont think of forex as an easy place to make money --- it is, but it takes real time and real learning and understanding.

BUT, none of it is brain surgery and none is beyond any of us --- you just need to want to do it !

thnx for the comments, cause it helps while posting this stuff.

enjoy and trade well

mp

I've been going back to your post 212 and trying to get a grip on it. Yesterday I shorted BARC, a British bank, with success. I'm not sure whether it was because of Bear, Stearns or whether it it was that BARC was, what I considered as, a pullback in a bear stage. Anyway, I drew a horizontal line and used your post as a reason to short.

I'm a little uncertain as to what you consider a signal bar, though.

Split

Lightning McQueen · Mar 15, 2008

Splitlink said:
I've been going back to your post 212 and trying to get a grip on it. Yesterday I shorted BARC, a British bank, with success. I'm not sure whether it was because of Bear, Stearns or whether it it was that BARC was, what I considered as, a pullback in a bear stage. Anyway, I drew a horizontal line and used your post as a reason to short.

I'm a little uncertain as to what you consider a signal bar, though.

Split

Wow Split, doesn't BARC trend really well in the lower timeframes, (curiosity getting the better of me again, sorry :cheesy: ) I've got 454 as a short entry here on the chart, interesting ! I shall also revue post 212.

I think I'm doing something similar to this horizontal line thing but my line is dynamic so follows the action and possibly grabs a bigger slice of any trending movement.

mp6140 · Mar 15, 2008

Mp -- Same Old Remarks, Over And Over !

wilkelec said:
That method works for me but if everyone traded it we would all be forced to use the quick grab technique and I dont want to do that. So how about you go make 332 pips and write a book in a few years time when you retire and we have all made a profit. I know this method is not a well kept secret but pushing the industry curve ball adds dumb money and dumb money means profits!!!! I agree allowing the enemy to know your take out zone is a dumb idea and I also figure that its a greater risk to target a trade without a stop loss because of the amount of people that can profit with large sums of money while they aim for the percentage to remove you. Flying under the radar so to speak. Risk reward etc etc. Good luck with the trades.

========================================================

Interesting comments I think, although I dont understand all of what youve said, but the book was written many years ago and given away free to 5000 people who downloaded it and are using it in one form or another today.

"pushing the industry curve" sounds rather interesting, but i would imagine ANY trade that a retail trader takes is putting "dumb money" to work, with or without a stoploss.

now, its hard for me to imagine that "out there" exists a trader, working for morgan stanley, who just "waits" for me to take a trade without a stoploss --- perhaps if i were another bank, trading a few million dollars, but hard to imagine with my usual two or three lot trades !

I shall give you that the trade "sounds" dangerous until you realize one is simply trading with the trend which has ALWAYS been a safe way to go, because any temporary mistakes are taken out later down the road as long as one has some idea of what the trend may be.

we are all told to use stoplosses, and then I watch as newbs lose trade after trade as the mm's hunt their stops or see that stops were set MUCH too tightly.

on the subject of the "tp" point and advertising it, one can NOT show it or can -- depends on your own particular mindset, but if one KNOWS where the support and resistance points are (in other words, you KNOW HOW TO TRADE) then the banks and mm's HAVE to hit that spot --- they simply have no choice in the matter !

the world teaches us to use stoplosses but I maintain that becomes a very sharp, two edged sword ---- it can protect losing your whole account if you REALLY made a mistake (and it would have to be a HORRID mistake) but its an INVESTING method, coming out of EQUITIES, where an investor protects themselves from the downside problems that occur when the CEO is found in a closet with Michael Jackson, playing with nude elephan dolls !

I teach the method so that people can MAKE money, not LOSE it to a stoploss, and I teach HOW to read whats happening in the mkt so that one makes the correct trade ----

Do you really believe morgan stanley uses stoplosses ? Not on your life because they KNOW where the price is going --- the only stops they use are buy and sell stops, and thats it, so I choose to trade the same way the smart money does, use money management to maintain my margin requirements, along with hedge trades to counter any downside I may encounter ---- it just seems to be working for those newbs who have NEVER made a cent before, and thats all I wish to see !

enjoy and trade well

mp

wilkelec · Mar 15, 2008

Yes there is a double edge sword where you can lose big without a stop. So you trade lots with small amounts. They wont all get wiped out. In fact I have never had a day where the market has taken out my position. Must just be lucky. I have had days where it goes to minus profit by a lot and then by the end of the day its back in profit. Or only a little loss. Do I care??? NO!!!! I started trading with a very small amount of money and I make the minimum effort with my trades. So if one day I lose it all then oh well. It was fun while it lasted but did not break the bank or take up my time. I could make a lot more money sitting watching the screen but I dont want to do that. I want to do nothing but click a few buttons and then go out. Will people say this method sucks??? YES!!! but I think sitting watching a screen all day sucks. When you get your initial investment back take it out and then play the game for free. whatever happens after that is a bonus!!!! You can only break even. As for books they are all the same so writting another one will still make some profit. Do I think big companies take positions against retail traders. No I dont but I do believe they can assess a level of noise to create in order to take out stops and the faint hearted that get scared by a trade going into minus profit.

mp6140 · Mar 16, 2008

Mp -- About The "prior Close"

Splitlink said:
I've been going back to your post 212 and trying to get a grip on it. Yesterday I shorted BARC, a British bank, with success. I'm not sure whether it was because of Bear, Stearns or whether it it was that BARC was, what I considered as, a pullback in a bear stage. Anyway, I drew a horizontal line and used your post as a reason to short.

I'm a little uncertain as to what you consider a signal bar, though.

Split

===================================================

well, ive never called it a signal bar, but i guess thats what it is by golly --- it is simply the prior days closing price which represents strong resistance, obviously --- if the stock, currency or index breaks up at that point, its very strong medicine !

the "normal" run for a stock, forex or any others is 3 days, with the run usually ending about midday of the third day (here in the states its 12 noon, est --- watch the currency reverse, approach the "prior closing price", and one of two things happen --- either we break down thru it, or its left for the next market to break thru)

my exits (more than entries, as i may enter anywhere i see a trend has developed) are based COMPLETELY on support and resistance, with a look at the normal intraday, daily, weekly and monthly pivots, although one can do just fine with the normal chart overlays --- its only when you want to impress others, hit the EXACT tp before a major reversal and announce to the world that you are a master of the time/space continuam, that one needs the more esoteric overlays.

Not written in stone, but way above average situation.

markets move in reasonably predictable manners, because theyre being run by humans (who can be reasonable or not) and humans like their organization. Simply by watching how the charts move, focusing on the PATTERN and not the pips, one can pretty much lock into how it moves.

there are only a few things one really needs to know about forex to be reasonably successful, and not a lot of the hogwash I read on these sites deals with it because IT TAKES TIME AND EXPERIENCE before you can see the patterns and trends, and that requires a commitment and not a "get rich quick" mentality.

the same goes for most EA's, although I have found a very few that work on price movement and trends, and therefore are superior to the majority of stuff out there. I dont pay much attention because im a manual trader (otherwise I couldnt claim im a trader at all if some robot does my work for me)and so I had to learn the hard way and make the mistakes that had me on my knees, doing foxhole prayers to G-D to save me just this one time more.

But I learned and survived, and if i can do it anyone can do it cause its just not hard !

sorry for being longwinded, but often i just get tired of the hogwash I continuously read, and after many years of seeing the same old same old, I get a rather unpleasant taste in my mouth !

so trade well, learn much and enjoy all

mp

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