Hmm, couple of exciting days for me, though not for the right reasons. Got a nasty cold so just my crude notes tonight I'm afraid. At 9pm last night I was staring a nasty loss in the face. Here's how I did it
Oh dear...
26/1
1 L 1140.25 bounce off 125 EMA after 3.00 reversal
2 S 1140.50 trailing stop hit on pb
3 L 1140.50 bounce off 1140 sup
4 S 1140.75 bearish failure to test R on 3rd push up.
5 L 1142.50 breakout pullback
6 S 1141.50 stopped out
7 S 1141.75 consol top SR switch
8 L 1140.50 covered near bot of consol
9 L 1140.25 bot of consol bounce, Tick pd
10 S 1141.25 top of consol downsloping
11 S 1143.50 triple top res, Tick nd
12 L 1143.25 covered, growing bull vol
13 S 1142.75 trendline & support brk
14 L 1143.50 stopped out. false brk.
15 S 1143.50 triple top, tick nd persistent
16 L stopped out 1145...eek, breakout!
17 S 1145 Naz double top, scalp attempt
18 L 1145.50 stopped out, Naz exceeded DT
All quite reasonable for a man with a cold.
Then
19 S 1146.25 I accidentally hit Tranmit. It happens. But did I cancel immediately like a good Frugi? No! And I'm still trying to work out why. I never usually have a problem taking losses, but this one I just ignored. Very odd. It cost me $275 in the end, which was richly deserved.
20 S 1148 R1 & consol trgt hit
21 S 1149 triple top, bot of established trendline. Tick & rsi nd
22,23,24 stopped out S3 1151.75 STOP SHD HAVE BEEN A POINT LOWER this was well into the fresh air above the breakout level. And of couse I should have been only 2 short (idiotic trade 19 made it 3)
25,26,27,28 S4 1152 vol spike top??? Naz hitting big resistance. DODGY SIZE but reasonable given ludicrous extension above 125 EMA (2m) and what I call the "too good to be true bullish setup". A trap is in the offing.
29 S 1154.25 to oncrease chance of $ recovery tomorrow without incurring much risk. 1150 will be best cover price to break even - pullback to just above BO level and 38% rtr.
Held overnight S5. Stop GTC L5 1157 lmt GTC L5 1149.75 (bracketed) ... ES is miles above 125 EMA and I expect a pullback to BO level.
comm 29 * 2.80 = $81.20
Total loss: -$1168.70
All day neg div across indices then at 6.30 they start falling in line. (Naz catches Dow up, all then start rising in sync) = beware start of trend!! I of course ignored these signs and tried to fight it in usual scalp style.
I should have trusted consol target to run us up and exited all shorts at 1150 breakout. Was scared of buying high today, and it cost me.
5 lots obviously too much to hold overnight but stop was only a couple of pts above day's high. The odds of a pullback seemed much greater to me than the odds of another ramp up. Easy to say now, but intuition screamed hold it, sleep fitfully tonight and recover thy $1000. Or lose another $500. A gamble? I'm still not sure...so
27/1
1,2,3,4,5 covered L5 1149.75 pullback to yesterday breakout level and 125 EMA 2 min. I knew it would :cheesy:
6 L 1150.25 back above 125 EMA and bo level with hh/ll. Tick pd.
7 S 1147 stopped out, no enthusiam for rally
8 S 1147.75 top of bear flag & res at 38% Fib. Downtrend in operation. but q oversold so wary of holding shorts. So dis be a scalp. But expecting 5th ewave down with pd.
9 L 1147.25 covered bot of bear flag.
10 L 1147.25 adam and eve bottom? naz hh/hl dow hl tick pd 10m rsi bullish POOR TRADE. Failed to notice bearish failure to meet resistance/ break of down trendline. Expected 5th wave down and still wnet long? Why?
11 stopped out 1145.25 consol failure deservedly so
12 L 1145 50% rtr. another sell climax. Naz not confirmed ES lower low.
It has now.
13 L 1143 62% rtr and S1. Bot of downtrend channel. 5th wave down completion? Doji confirms end of downmove, nice. Oh & vol div & tick pd
14 S 1145 nearing top of channel and 50% rtr could be res
Ah the NQ chart looks much clearer...
15 L NQ 1524 inv H&S
16 S NQ 1529.50 neckline/top of consol.
17 S ES 1145.50 trailing stop hit
18 L NQ 1523.5 triple bottom in range. (h&s negated)
19 S NQ 1525 trailing stop hit
20 L NQ 1524.50 same as b4
21 S NQ 1526 last high (last cycle failed to test resistance)
22 L NQ 1523.50
23 S NQ 1522 stopped out consol failure
24 L NQ 1522 bounce off 23/1 low 1521.5.
25 S NQ 1524 bot of consol (s/r switch likely). Yup.
Almost reasonable trading today I reckon, though once again pretty much ignored the trend.
Gain $1192.50-comm 25 * 2.80 = $70 = $1122.50
Overall lost -$46.20 over last 2 days. I'll consider myself lucky.
Day 5 running total -$158.40 cripes this is hard work innit