Yellowlion's EURUSD Trading Journal

[yellowlion]

09/16/08 04:15 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Had one get away from me last night. Wow it happened so fast it was remarkable. Repaired a bit of it in fun trading conditions. -62 for the session.

Should be fun again tonight and with the expected volatility I'll be placing hard disaster stops. (Probably a good idea all the time eh?)

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

09/17/08 04:15 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Was a full moon last night right? With the US Fixed Income markets catching a touch of base instincts and the US Fed unanimously intelligent, I was severely disoriented.

Glad that's over.

Anyway, disappointing chop yesterday. I was looking for something more fluid. Not myself this week either dropping another 24 through a choppy equity curve. Not overtrading, just underperforming. -86 on the week. Looking forward to today.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

09/18/08 05:00 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

+51 for last session. Second resistance level in yesterday's analysis good for a few pips. Late getting in from my usual Wednesday night meeting so no analysis tonight. I'm trading the session so hit me on Yahoo IM - handle: yellowlion if you want my S/R levels for today.

 

[yellowlion]

09/19/08 05:30 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All and Happy Friday,

A friend called me this morning and asked if I would help with a meeting he was chairing tonight. It was a terrific opportunity and since I've been in a soft spot all week with my trading, I jumped at the chance. So I've just got in from a meeting with 50 inmates at Metropolitan Hospital for the Criminally Insane.

It was a lot of fun; they were a good bunch. Certainly makes a difficult week in the market seem miniscule by comparison.

I for one am glad it's Friday. Been in a soft spot all week struggling to make any pips. Equity curve is chopping all over the place this week even with the strong moves in EURUSD. +22 for the session.

No analysis tonight 'cause of the time away from the desk. I am trading so Yahoo! IM me if you want my levels.

Have a great weekend.

 

[yellowlion]

09/22/08 04:30 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All and Happy Autumn,

Hope everyone enjoyed the last days of summer, autumn arrives at 15:44 GMT today.

Choppy trading for me last week. Finished -23 pips. New week begins today. Picked up 11 in Asian trade for a start while putting the week together.

Check this week's COT chart. I usually post the % of open interest held by the commercials. They've really been lightening up on shorting Euros. Normally, this indicates a lower Euro ahead.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

09/23/08 04:30 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Slept through the US morning and woke to find EURUSD quite a bit higher. 413 pips from tail to snout for the currency on the 22nd. I think that's a first.

Kinda pains me to say I took +21 for my efforts but since my daily target is +20 I must acknowledge a successful session, maintain my discipline, and keep discovering opportunities for growth.

Lots of uncertainty surrounding this US plan has US Treasuries schizophrenic. More than ever, anything can happen.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

09/24/08 04:15 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

-28 for last session. Man I'm struggling lately.

I'm not really impressed by Buffett's stake in Goldman today. I don't think the general market will be either. Supporting best-of-breed, although helpful, really doesn't seem like too much of a stretch. It may calm things down a bit though. The money markets are very skittish.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

09/25/08 05:15 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

3 months 'till Christmas.

Flat in the chop last night. As usual, in late from the Wednesday meeting. Hit me on Yahoo! IM if you want to trade ideas.

 

[yellowlion]

09/26/08 05:00 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Caught a little traction last session +55. Had a busy day and just woke from a small nap so won't have time for any analysis tonight. As always hit me on Yahoo! IM if you want to chat.

I did want to share the daily chart of pit-traded 10yr US Treasuries. Anyone want to touch this pattern? Or name it?

 

[yellowlion]

09/29/08 04:15 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Struggled through a tough last week but had a great weekend and am looking forward to the session.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

09/30/08 04:45 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Played that support cluster a little larger than normal. It failed and put me in a bit of a hole but no real damage and finished the day -9. Just gotta ride out the soft spots.

3 mo LIBOR rate above everything but German 10yr in our food chain. Yikes!

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/01/08 04:45 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All and Happy 4th Quarter,

Had a lousy Q3 trading EURUSD, decent start but lousy finish.

Flat here for the week. Big move 400+ pips during the US morning session which is sleep time for me so missed it. Hope others capitalized on that strong move. Seems that lately all the big moves have been in the US morning.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/02/08 05:30 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Posted this, or I thought I did, an hour ago. Must've hit the wrong button.

Anyway, decent start to Q4 +64 yesterday.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/03/08 04:45 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Equity curve still choppy -43 yesterday. Gotta stay the course through the soft spots.

Thinking of changing sessions to US morning for awhile instead of London morning 'cause that's where all the movement has been and I've been sleeping through it. Maybe starting Monday.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/06/08 05:00 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a splendid Autumn weekend.

On 9/22 04:30 GMT I posted a COT analysis suggesting a lower EURUSD ahead.

The median price for that hour was .4508 and the weekly top printed at 19:00 at .4866.
not very convincing; offside was -358 pips.

On 9/29 04:15 GMT I posted another COT analysis still suggesting a lower EURUSD ahead.

Median price for that hour was .4503 and the weekly top printed at 17:00 at .4573 a little better offside of -70 pips.

On 10/02 05:30 GMT I posted my pause targets for a break of the low at .3882 as .3760/.3719/.3615.

Thursday hit the first target printing a low of .3746 -14 pips offside and bounced +100 pips for the pause.

Friday hit the second pause target printing a low of .3702 -19 pips offside and bounced +204 pips for the pause.

The Week's open gapped lower and printed a low of .3603 for the pause -12 pips offside. Volatile here but no bounce yet. Initial test went +60.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/07/08 05:00 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

+39 for yesterday's session.

Global rate cuts 'a comin'.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/08/08 05:00 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Flat on the day yesterday. I just can't seem to get out of my own way lately.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/09/08 05:00 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Well the rate cuts materialized, half of what was desired. Not much of an effect yet. US Equities were unimpressed.

Still struggling with my EURUSD trading -27 for yesterday. Really hit a soft spot. Can't break-out.

10yr US T-Note

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[yellowlion]

10/13/08 05:15 Session Open

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a splendid autumn weekend.

I got short BIG on Thursday at .3780, 4 pips from the top telling myself with the utmost confidence that this was gonna pay handsomely.

The sad part is I spooked out early and missed quadrupling my account during the 500+ pip decline into Friday's lows. One day soon I will master myself enough to get it done.

In keeping with what civility is left in my dear, shattered, US Fixed Income markets, I am participating in today's Columbus Day holiday by spending some time upgrading the newsletter, and going on a nice long bike ride.

 

[yellowlion]

10/14/08 05:00 GMT Session Open

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone is catching a bit of these swings.

10yr US T-Note

I want to discuss a possibility in EURUSD. This is an hourly chart taken about 04:15GMT this morning. It's forming what I call a "Brace" formation. I took this from the brace { in typeface. You see if you turn it with the point down it looks like the current hourly EURUSD. Now the pattern here is big. Most brace patterns are not this size but the setup - if it materializes - goes like this. Price continues higher to the high of the left side of the brace, here at .3784. Then at the high a fast selloff occurs to one of three levels: the 21 SMA, the .618 Fib retracement, or the grey zone pictured in the chart. I prefer the grey zone but any one is a possibility. The ensuing rally breaks the high with the first target the .618 Fib extension. I've chosen the lower point of my Fib retracements at the close/open instead of the reaction low. The choice is yours. Like I said, this particular pattern here is very large and the setup doesn't always occur but if the sharp selloff occurs it's worth a nibble.

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