Yellowlion's EURUSD Trading Journal

[yellowlion]

Jd

I'm Long 1.4785 with a stop at 1.4735 do you think it WILL hit 1.500 before my stop ?

Hi JDTRADER,

Since you already have a stop in place it shows you understand the importance of risk management.

If we knew for sure where price was going we would only need entries. If price hits our stop before our target is something only price can tell us. What we know is that either way, we will have the resources to stay in the game.

 

[yellowlion]

09/24/09 04:30 gmt

Good morning All,

Small short position's closed. I think the dollar is gonna be offered here for a bit.

I'm just looking for re-entries up above and I don't rule out an S&P retest of the monthly 21 SMA that halted things with EURUSD very beautifully at an interesting Fib level.

We get above this recent swing at .4753...I'll be looking to start nibbling around .4775 with a tight stop, then up into the 48's.

I'd really like to see it into the 49's and the way things have been they just may have the rocks to push it past that MA for a bit.

If it goes lower from here I'm not quite sure what I'm gonna do just yet. I'm looking at 4710/00 right now to see if that holds.

Like I mentioned at the outset, I think the dollar will stay offered for a bit and a fresh high is not out of the question.

 

[yellowlion]

09/25/09 04:30 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy Friday,

3 months 'till Christmas for those so inclined.

I've got blood work and a physical in the morning (9:30pm here) and I'm kinda beat so I'm not gonna get involved in anything today. I'll take the 4.67% and call it a week.

Here's what I'm thinking.

The previous uptrend swing low @ .4610 is currently being defended off .4613. You can see what I mean on a 4 hour chart.

There is a short-term oversold condition to be resolved and EURUSD is working on that now. That was a 3 wave swing down off the .4844 high; not a perfect ZigZag but the previous swing low held - so it could get way higher.

What I'd be looking at is:

#1) Benchmark US rates. If the 10yr US T-Note falls below 3.30% and stays there, we could see a full fledged correction next week. Even so below 3.30% today should bring in equity weakness.

#2) If the dollar gets bid again, watch the Dollar Index around 77.35. It may truncate any EURUSD selling. If EURUSD decisively breaks .4610 that is what I'd be looking at. You could get a nice little long on a bear trap.

#3) I'd probably only be scalping shorts off resistance until that swing low is taken out. Even then I want to see how DX behaves at the MA. Right now, in my opinion, short positions aren't really a good idea.

Have a great weekend.

 

[yellowlion]

09/28/09 04:50 gmt

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a terrific weekend.

Well I saw EURUSD around .4715 on the CNBC World ticker around 23:00 and thought to myself, hmmm gapped higher. Made my way to the boat over the next couple hours and when I casually booted up here I saw it had taken another leg down breaking the .4610 swing low . Surprised the heck out of me but Asia wanted dollars.

On Friday I mentioned

If the 10yr US T-Note falls below 3.30% and stays there, we could see a full fledged correction next week. Even so below 3.30% today should bring in equity weakness.

The 10yr US T-Note is currently at 3.30% and a further weakening of rates could exacerbate the selling.


The first leg down off .4844 was 158 pips. The current Asian leg down is 157 pips. We have since bounced 30 pips higher. I like .4540 as a near support level but a retracement toward the current low at .4563 may be worth something.

That's it for now, I'm gonna get some sleep and post a comment early in the US morning over coffee.

Watch those US rates for clues!

 

[yellowlion]

09/28/09 16:00 gmt

Hi All,

Well not much of an initial pullback to work with with but .4563 did hold at that equality idea stated in the last post. The trade was worth 100 pips or so.

I'm not convinced the high has been put in. The pattern still suggests we could go higher from here. However, the path of least resistance is still down. I just saw 26 pips taken off EURUSD in a one minute bar.

10yr US T-Notes remain above the key 3.30% level lending support for a US equity rally today. TY is my favored indicator for now.

I have no trades on in the current chop and instead am going for a bike ride along the beach.

See you at tommorow's London open.

 

[yellowlion]

09/29/09 05:00 gmt

Good Morning All,

.4563 continues to hold. The pattern off the high is certainly corrective in structure but direction is a bit cloudy for me this morning. There's a slightly bullish tone to EURUSD but what is there to look at for guidance in price structure?

The initial correction of the first leg down took 16 hours, the correction of the second leg down took 29 hours and the current correction of yesterday's Asia leg down is in it's 28th hour. Legs 1 and 3 are equal, leg 2 is the longest. The corrections are similar in structure. It could be over on a technical basis if it was so inclined. Yesterday's midday US selloff failed to breach the low.

A little bearish setup just failed setting a slightly bullish tone for the London open.

Volume was very light in the markets yesterday due to the observance of Yom Kippur.

Will returning volume send the S&P 500 for a retest of the monthly 21sma that started this corrective pattern? In my opinion, it seems the logical thing to do.

10yr t-Notes did breach 3.30% over the past 12 hours and we're sitting back on it right now. We get firmly below that level and I would expect the retest to fail if there's strength enough below 3.30% to try it.

That's the landscape I have this morning.

I've got no opinion on direction. For now, it's just chop although the swings have really been good sized so far this week. Just play the chop with your favorite method and catch a nice swing or two.

Back in the US morning.

 

[gus]

Enjoy reading your take on things.

 

[yellowlion]

09/29/09 15:10

Hi All,

Glad you enjoy the thread Gus. Hope it helps.


Watching things EURUSD this morning and I get a little long here at .4540. The short side is looking a little crowded.

T-Notes are below the 3.30% threshold and equities are weak so if it gets on my side I probably won't stick around for more than 40 or 50 pips.

Lower bound around .4500.


15:29 GMT: halfway there at 4560 bring the stop up to a couple pips below the last swing low .4530

16:57 GMT: At .4575 and struggling. Quite a battle. Stop raised to .4560 take 20 at least. TP .4585

17:06 GMT: Closed at .4581. Good enough +41. Going for a bike ride.

See you at the London Open.

 

[gus]

36 pages now yellowlion. It's all good. Nice trade y'day.

Looking at it this evening they seem to be bidding it up, but then this was to be a down week, so lets see how Europe goes.

 

[yellowlion]

09/30/09 05:30 gmt

Good Morning All,

End of the quarter today. Always interesting.

Asia kept a bid under EURUSD the entire session with the latter half of the session not yielding an inch to the bears. This has created a short -term overbought condition that may need resolving before EURUSD can get much higher.

It looks like they're intent on breaching the last swing high at .4645 before they are willing to give any ground. A short just above the breach could put you in near the top of the retracement. I'd take 50 and call it enough, then go looking for a long entry.

Don't overstay your idea if they refuse to see things your way. The next swing high at .4678 with the hourly 200SMA is another opportunity and could be a good double down for those with the resources.

If the bid fades on the breach, I would be watching for a low risk long entry into the retracement as the short-term overbought condition is worked off. It will have gone at least 121 pips off the low at .4525 so pick your retracement level and give it a try.

If the breach doesn't occur, .4585 may give up clues as to direction.

See you in the US morning.

 

[yellowlion]

09/30/09 16:00 gmt

Hi All,

End of quarter volatility is the order of the day.

Got frustrated with a small profit off .4643 in early London then went to bed and got some extra sleep.

Nice swings at obvious levels so EURUSD is trading well. .4585 essentially held off the higher entry idea, so if I had to pick a direction it would be higher. But don't hang on to that too tightly.

It's just chop so direction really is unclear. Just trade your favorite method for the chop and get in on a swing or two.

We could define a quasi range as .4575/25 - .4675/4700.

Got a boat project so the screens will be lit all day. I'll check in if anything develops on this end.

 

[yellowlion]

10/01/09 03:00 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy October,

Let's begin the month with this little sidebar while the chop continues during the 10/1 Asian session.

The last chart I posted in this thread was an hourly on 09/18/09. Let's revisit it here:

Take note of the upper and lower levels I have for this chart. .4845 upper and .4525 lower.

Now lets look at this morning's hourly that has not been touched since 09/18. The landscape is the full correction to date.

The power of Fibonacci and old trendlines is remarkable isn't it? Don't delete that old analysis too soon. It may come in handy.

 

[yellowlion]

10/01/09 15:00 gmt

Hi All,

Got some outside business to attend to so no trading for me this US session.

If current support at .4525/00 fails, 4450/30 looks likely with .4465 running interference.

See you later.

 

[gus]

Very interesting day, as it tested the low and retesting it at noon est.
Managed to do a couple scalps for around 20pips.

All the best to you also.

 

[yellowlion]

10/02/09 05:00 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy Friday,

Very interesting day, as it tested the low and retesting it at noon est. Managed to do a couple scalps for around 20pips.

Nice Gus. I picked up a little long for a few pips myself on the recent test during Asia.

Non-Farm payrolls today..ewwww....that's an early morning here in PDT land.

The .4525/00 zone continues to hold and yield some pips for the s/r players. Whether this Asian test of the lower bound will hold remains to be seen. The seasonal self-fullfilling-prophecy needs to be considered going into the month.

I still think an S&P retest of the monthly 21sma would be a healthy thing. The pattern is currently 9 waves down however, and that is considered directional. This kind of pattern of quasi-equal waves can persist to 11 (correctional) or even 13 waves so I would like to see .4465/30 before getting "let's do the retest" bullish again.

For now the only thing I can suggest is just play the pattern of swings until the pattern ends.

Don't forget, it's payrolls day. Probably better to scalp around until that goes.

but, for normal days, if there is such a thing:

Quasi range is .4500 - .4673. Maybe start looking for the beginning of another leg down if it gets to around .4625.

A break of the low targets the .4430 area with .4475 running interference. Kinda wide but a small long at 75 could get some quick pips on a sharp reaction. If it fails you could keep it to 35 and take a bigger bite. If you have the resources for such a play. Just a thought.

Price action is the key at any level but sometimes I like to enter counter to the current pattern at designated levels without discretion. I just get in no matter what it looks like. I've worked with this method enough to know that if I get nice looking levels, they can and do stop freight trains. Also, If I'm looking for a resumption of the primary trend, and it decides to re-assert itself, it may go a ways before I get a pullback.

If the level fails I get stopped out, get a soda, and crank up some "Quadrophenia"

You declared you would be three inches taller
You only became what we made you.
Thought you were chasing a destiny calling
You only earned what we gave you.
You fell and cried as our people were starving,
Now you know that we blame you.
You tried to walk on the trail we were carving,
Now you know that we framed you....

...I'm the Punk in the gutter...

We tried to speak between lines of oration
You could only repeat what we told you.
Your axe belongs to a dying nation,
They don't know that we own you.
You're watching movies trying to find the feelers,
You only see what we show you.
We're the slaves of the phony leaders
Breathe the air we have blown you.

...I'm the Punk in the gutter...

 

[yellowlion]

10/05/09 05:25 gmt

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a fine weekend. Slept outside under a beautiful Harvest Moon last night. Had a tough bike ride home today fighting a coastal gale but it was warm and sunny. Just sand-blasted windy.

Anyway, I think we are going to get higher here for the beginning of the week. Asia has been in a EURUSD buying mood and although we are approaching overbought conditions I think we can get 50 pips higher before a pullback.

The pattern off the .4844 high is in 9 quasi-equal waves which is an impulsive pattern.
so any strength above the current .4480 low would be considered corrective (for the time being.)

10yr T-Note rates acted well as a gauge last week on a break of 3.30% taking equities down with them. There's a reversal pattern on the daily indicating rates may rise short-term.

Last post I had a long play at .4775 looking for some pips on a sharp reaction that the market got in front of by 5 pips on the payrolls report and then went 160 pips without looking back.

Hope some got in. I didn't, and I let it go without me.

.4686/.4718 is an area of interest above. If we can break above I think we can get to the upper 47's possibly to .4800 before the downtrend resumes.

This could play with an S&P 500 retest of the monthly 21sma that I was talking up last week. I think it would be healthy for the market to test the average again @ 1064.34.

If we break .4480 before getting above .4673, initial support is in around .4430.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

 

[yellowlion]

10/06/09 04:30 gmt

Good Morning All,

Well it took 24 hours to do it but we're finally testing .4718. Asia has been spending money to make money this session and is forcing Europe to pay up if they want 'em. There was some resistance at the level so we will have to see how it holds. We may get a pullback from here 'make it a little cheaper for London to get in.

EURUSD is getting a little overbought and the pattern hasn't really set up on the bullish side but there's still room to shake out a few more shorts and even try for a fresh high. That is currently 150 pips away though and a straight line is most likely not possible.

Beyond .4723 I think the upper 4700's - .4800 could be resistant.

US T-Notes are off slightly and they look to continue soft so equities could stay bid today.

The currency markets have been in front lately so playing currencies off equities is somewhat hazardous, but if the bulls start to stampede the S&P to that monthly sma, EURUSD will most likely stay bid and could make a fresh high.

It's not a clear market right here but I do think equites will stay resistant short of prior highs and will probably make a higher test than what we had yesterday.

I'm out looking for short entries.

Doing the bi-monthly logistics run a little behind schedule tomorrow so no US morning post.

Have a great session.

 

[yellowlion]

10/06/09 15:00 gmt

Hi All,

Got up early enough to post a quick update before the logistics run.

Things are going as expected with equities looking to test the monthly sma and T-Notes soft.

EURUSD is being pulled up by the equity flows but it's not going along too enthusiastically.

I got a nibble short here at .4750. These early entries need plenty of room. I expect to take a little heat ,but EURUSD is acting somewhat lethargic so I'll start here.

Have a good rest of the day, see you at the London open.

 

[yellowlion]

10/07/09 00:49 gmt

Hi All,

Just an update on that little short entry at .4750. Closed it just now at .4700 + 50 pips.

Will be back at the London open.

 

[gus]

Nice, good work. Have been occupied with personal business and have not traded this week. usdjpy made a daily demark bar 13 y'day which is an indicator of
bottom (sometimes, lol)