Yellowlion's EURUSD Trading Journal

[yellowlion]

08/21/09 04:30 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy Friday,

Hey I apologise for the dollar index data yesterday. I don't know what I was thinking but I had some pretty weird numbers there. Sorry 'bout that.

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Asia came back from lunch in a selling mood and took EURUSD from 1.4260 to 1.4214. We're currently testing corrective support levels and if they hold, a new high could be made today.

I do not think that is the case. I believe we are going lower and the reason is the accelerating decline at the long end of the rate curve. In other words, I think the Bond market is going to take us lower. The foil is a pretty strong resistance zone for TY just above Wednesday's high.

The hourly levels are still valid

The long end of the curve is weakening..look at $ LIBOR

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[yellowlion]

08/24/09 04:15 gmt

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a splendid weekend. Mine was nice but long so an early post tonight, I'm gonna shower and watch London open, then hit the sack and rise early for the US session.

On Friday I wrote:

Asia came back from lunch in a selling mood and took EURUSD from 1.4260 to 1.4214. We're currently testing corrective support levels and if they hold, a new high could be made today.

I do not think that is the case. I believe we are going lower and the reason is the accelerating decline at the long end of the rate curve. In other words, I think the Bond market is going to take us lower. The foil is a pretty strong resistance zone for TY just above Wednesday's high.

I knew it was risky but I felt treasuries were going to stay resisted but firm and may even punch through for a bit before closing back down. They traded up to resistance during Asia and when I posted were making the high for the session. Soon after that they started to come off and they stayed heavy for the rest of the day. EURUSD was testing corrective support levels printing the low at 1.4208 and by the US session was 168 pips higher.

I do believe that TY is going to re-test and break that level in the not too distant future. I was way too far in front on Friday. I've got a target of 120.5000 on TY.

Anyway EURUSD thoughts for tonight are below. Have a good day, you know how to contact me if you want to discuss anything.

Monday's Hourly

 

[yellowlion]

08/25/09 04:15 gmt

Good Morning All,

Watching US Treasuries trade near the highs for the early session. Could get a retest of key resistance today. EURUSD is trying to work off a minor oversold condition which could take the pair to test 1.4328 here directly. A break above 1.4343 could challenge the 1.4376 high.

We'll stick with the same hourly

 

[yellowlion]

08/26/09 05:00 gmt

Good Morning All.

Well after 50 or so pips lower early yesterday, we did break .4343 and test the .4376 high which successfully held.
Treasuries look like they may make a run at key resistance again today but I think we need to shed a few 32's before we can make a successful attempt. The Oil market shed a bit at the end of yesterday's equity session. I'll be watching both those markets today for clues.

No reason to change the existing hourly

 

[yellowlion]

08/27/09 05:00 gmt

Good Morning All,

EURUSD held a bid in Asia off a higher low set around 01:00 GMT and has since stalled but remained supported at the hourly 21SMA. Once again Asia is responsible for working off a minor oversold condition. Seems the pattern this week.

Anyhow, EURUSD has set up lower and we will see if it can't follow through. As you know I'm queing off the bond market which is remaining supported back at key resistance this morning. If it breaks through there's resistance just above, but we could get lower here pretty quickly. I would like to see treasuries pull back after a break through. I think that would be the healthy thing to do to accomplish my 120.5000 target. Watch oil too, it may want to get lower and actually led the market the other day.

On a personal note, I took a quick scalp off the 21SMA on the initial test earlier and when I looked at my account, I realized it has doubled since April 15.

Every hourly level tonight has good potential. Hope it doesn't confuse.

 

[yellowlion]

08/28/09 04:30 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy Friday,

I for one am glad to see it. I'm beat and could use a weekend. The Long Beach FunkFest is this weekend so I'm planning on gettin' Funked Up!

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Someone sold dollars in the US afternoon session sending EURUSD off 1.4274 to make 132 pips in 25 minutes finishing 2 pips above the 1.4004 resistance level on the hourly chart we have been using all this week. As I watched the action unfold I thought that this looked like a large fund doing some end of month positioning. Whether or not we will see more of the same remains to be seen. It does suggest public money is coming into these funds and that shows the synthetic rally is doing what it intended to do - create momentum throughout the system. I don't want to suggest it's a pump and dump but whether or not it is sustainable also remains to be seen.

We'll stick with the same hourly we've been using with a change in TL2.

 

[yellowlion]

08/31/09 03:00 gmt

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a terrific weekend.

'See you on 09/08/09. Have a great week!

 

[yellowlion]

09/08/09 05:15 gmt

Good Morning All,

Well it was a pleasant restful week. I'm sorry to see summer winding down...this one is in the all-time top 5. I had a terrific summer.

Trading hasn't been bad either...my account doubled from April to August.

Anyway enough personal chatter. Just stopped by to say it's good to be back and the newsletter will resume publication tomorrow 09/09.

Those who sent free trial requests this past week will have their passwords within 24 hours. I'm gonna get some sleep tonight (10pm here) then get the daily back up by 00:00GMT tomorrow.

Have a good day, it still may be quiet as people return from vacations and get back in gear...think the S&P will complete the pattern?

 

[yellowlion]

Oh nine/Oh nine/Oh nine 04:45 GMT

Good Morning All,

Well I've been busting my butt trying to get the newsletter back up to speed but as usual I missed my deadline. It's amazing what a week off will do. All the analysis needed a re-working. Gold, Oil, S&P 500, and the Dollar Index are done. I've got TY and EURUSD to do and then it will be up and new passwords will be sent. Apologies for the delay.

A quick note on EURUSD. The pair came up against daily Fib resistance at .4529 and that's what's given the pause.

Asia's down but Asia's always down. Treasuries are up a bit and things generally look soft so we could see corrective action today.

Nothing looks completed so get a few more shorts on board again and then put the squeeze to 'em. That's how we can get higher from here. There's too many folks waiting for the pullback right now. The party won't end until more folks holler 'uncle' so stay nimble in the weakness. The funds are getting inflows too so you never know when the next squeeze will be.

 

[yellowlion]

09/10/09 05:45 gmt

1 hour

 

[yellowlion]

09/11/09 04:00 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy End of Summer Friday,

Well, summer draws to a close today. The printing presses have done their work, The street has those 401k's looking right chipper, and the spin is in full bloom. And all on 9/11. How moving. The choreography is absolutely impeccable. The question is, did the dance appease Goddess Abudantia (a.k.a. the American consumer) or will the efforts go unappreciated. Hard not to expect a rally today. Watch the long end of the treasury curve for clues going forward. EURUSD is below the S&P chart.

S&P 500 Cash Daily

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We'll stick with the same hourly we've been using.

 

[yellowlion]

09/13/09 21:10 GMT Hey S&P traders...Heads Up...

Here's a portion of this week's Traders Edition S&P COT analysis. I thought you might be interested.

 

[yellowlion]

09/15/09 04:00 gmt

Hi All,

Around 00:00 GMT I got a system-wide email from my FX broker which read:

"All Forex quotes have two parts, the BID and the ASK.
The Bid is the price at which you (as the trader) will open a sell.
The Ask is the price at which you will open a buy.
The difference between the bid and the ask price is known as the spread.

Kind Regards,
etc...etc..."

And I say to myself....what a wonderful world.....

So I want to welcome all the new forex traders and wish them all the best. I say to you...come on in...the water's fine.
And in honor of your initiation through the gateway of untold riches, tonight's analysis will be a hail mary trade. Long at 1.4606 with a target at 1.4700 and a stop loss at 1.4500. Now I'm off to count my money and watch a movie.

 

[yellowlion]

09/15/09 19:00 gmt

Oh So Close!,

Just got back from my bi-monthly logistics chores and I see my little trade got turned back 15 pips shy of the target. Those lovely Fibs are always working even when you don't want 'em to.

I'm not going to let it go to the other side again so stop loss now at breakeven.

More importantly, the S&P penetrated my area of interest for the index but on pretty meager volume don't you think?

 

[yellowlion]

09/16/09 04:50 gmt

Good Morning All,

Well the last 15 pips of this trade are proving to be a bit stubborn. Stop loss is moved up to 1.4654 which banks +48 pips during the likely shakeout. The trade is not over yet and I am backed by the full faith and trust of the US Government so that is my shakeout defense. Either way I am going to spend the money and begin building a short position.

Don't think this EURUSD can't go like mad to 1.50 in the final dash.

Here's tonight's hourly

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[yellowlion]

09/16/09 06:17 gmt

Closed the trade at 1.4690 off Fib resistance. Looks like it want's to go and it probably will but that's enough of that.

So there's +84 pips in the bank in honor of all the new traders that inspired that email from my broker a few posts ago.

I had a little fun with that but in all sincerity I wish all the new traders the best.

A couple ideas for the newbies based on this trade.

The first thing I can think of is something that Jesse Livermore said. I'm on the boat so I don't have the book with me but it goes something like this :

"My biggest wins were not because of any action I took but because of my sitting....my sitting tight"

Another idea comes from Mark Douglas for when you do act:

"When you act in the market, always act in your own best interest"

So we have 84 standard lot pips in honour of all you new guys Let's act in our own best interest:

Tomorrow I'm gonna walk half the money over to the human rescue shelter and the other half over to the animal rescue shelter and tell them that this money was donated by some new colleagues of mine.

Because in the end it doesn't matter how much you have, but how much you help with what you have.

Now I'm gonna go lookin' to get short. EURUSD analysis in the post below.

 

[yellowlion]

09/17/09 04:25 gmt

Good Morning All,

Just sticking with the hourly for an analysis tonight. I'm attempting to get caught up with my work and I'm failing miserably.

EURUSD is beginning to look quite one sided and is showing signs of exhaustion but things can carry on for a bit. I clearly remember the top in July 08. It was sort of a leisurely bid until it just gently died off and I looked around and realized there was no one there. It was truly a feeling of isolation like on a mountain top. I said to myself, "Wow, there's no one here." and it was the top.

There's always the possibility of an emotional capitualtion but I'm more inclined to expect those at bottoms. Anyway, if there's a mad dash or a slow grind up EURUSD 1.50 is a clear possibility.

Hourly

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[yellowlion]

09/18/09 04:40 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy Friday,

EURUSD looking a bit soft in the Asian session but has recovered somewhat off the lows. S&P 500 is just shy of it's monthly 21SMA near 1080.00 so we may be seeing the leading edge of that weather. Quasi horizontal triangles inside triangles here suggest they test the average.

We'll stick with the hourly for our technical landscape.

Have a great weekend.

Hourly

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[yellowlion]

09/23/09 04:00 gmt

Good Morning All,

Happy Autumn

From the 9/16 and 9/17 posts:

Don't think this EURUSD can't go like mad to 1.50 in the final dash.

...if there's a mad dash or a slow grind up EURUSD 1.50 is a clear possibility.

I'm nibbled on the short side and feeling only slightly squeezed but it feels goooood 'cause I'm about to make a fistful of dollars. .4950/.5000 is sweetwater there fella.

 

[JDTRADER]

I'm Long 1.4785 with a stop at 1.4735 do you think it WILL hit 1.500 before my stop ?