Wot To Do

[Splitlink]

The skill, if you will, is in NOT putting stops where they WILL be taken.

Ftse chart for yesterday. Have a think about it !

Let's put it another way. If the market had gone pear shaped and fallen another 50 points, instead of reversing, would you be telling me that the skill was in being short at that time? Of course you would! Oiga, I've been over all this from all sorts of angles and I know where the skill is. It's in risk/reward ie. not being in the trade when it is going wrong. Price is random in the short term. You may not pick it randomly, I'm sure that a lot of us believe that we are clever when we get it right and it may have been given a lot of thought, especially to probablr direction, but that is my opinion.

 

[counter_violent]

Let's put it another way. If the market had gone pear shaped and fallen another 50 points, instead of reversing, would you be telling me that the skill was in being short at that time? Of course you would! Oiga, I've been over all this from all sorts of angles and I know where the skill is. It's in risk/reward ie. not being in the trade when it is going wrong. Price is random in the short term. You may not pick it randomly, I'm sure that a lot of us believe that we are clever when we get it right and it may have been given a lot of thought, especially to probablr direction, but that is my opinion.

I'll be perfectly straight Split.
It's all a matter of context.

1) For starters we have to take into account the previous days falls across the board (see chart)
2) We cannot reasonably trade one instrument in isolation and in ignorance of what other, perhaps more powerful instruments are doing.
3) Given the European Index's were dipping early session and US index's were trading lightly higher(pre-market) then the prudent thing to do would be to wait and especially given that there was major news due @ 1.30pm
4)If you look at the US and European Index's as groups, then very often the FTSE will be somewhere in the middle. This is no accident btw, Ftse has one foot in Europe and the other in the US camp and it's rightful place is in the middle of the two, the majority of the time.

Note the weak hand stop runs ALL occur on the same candle (1pm uk time). The Only surprise is that the FTSE didn't dip a little more !

 

[spinola]

Let's put it another way. If the market had gone pear shaped and fallen another 50 points, instead of reversing, would you be telling me that the skill was in being short at that time? Of course you would! Oiga, I've been over all this from all sorts of angles and I know where the skill is. It's in risk/reward ie. not being in the trade when it is going wrong. Price is random in the short term. You may not pick it randomly, I'm sure that a lot of us believe that we are clever when we get it right and it may have been given a lot of thought, especially to probablr direction, but that is my opinion.

Split, it seems you are making discretionary trading decisions built upon a foundation of a belief, that market prices (in the short term ) are random.

That's the mismatching principle I talk of.

I don't think anyone should ? make discretionary trading decisions if their foundation of belief is that market prices are random.

It's likely counter logical, counter productive, and counter to the traders best long term interest, as the trader here would be trying to rationalise irrational price behaviour, as defined by him. It just does not make sense.

It's hard enough to trade when the match principle is correct within a trader, but with a mismatch ?

How does/or can the trader expect to progress beyond ' being at the mercy of the random market verses his own discretionary decisions and emotions ' when trying to trade in them ?

The trader is stuck trading his own mismatching here , and not the market at all ? One part of the traders mismatching has to change. Once the mismatch is resolved within the trader , he will be correctly aligned with his own matching principle. He is free finally to trade the market .


On the term ' Short term . '

You mention short term, what do you mean by short term ? A whole intra day session, 10 minutes, an hour or 2 , few days ?

If you know what is short term ,able to define it, it may help in developing the a suitable mechanical method approach , which will lead to knowing what stops, exits will serve best in the term being traded. (short term traders maybe able to help shed light on successful stopping strategies. )



Although I reference , Split here, it's open to all of us.

 

[ZEN archer]

You are in clear air with no previous price action up at this level, so how would you plan to play it from here?

I would have planned it before it came there - if that r/r is better than 1/2, I would've already got out (taking profit with thanks). Any further plans would depend on pa - if there are any new set ups, I would get in again (and take profit/loss if it comes to my 'planned' level).

 

[spinola]

my point - what time was it at - ie was it within 9 mins either side of an hour change or the same on even a 30 min time frame change ?



Regards

F

Hi , F. What are your observations with this ' time (9 mins) either side of a 30m / 60 m candle ' .

What behaviour do you see going on to warrant the reference to it ?

Cheers.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Let's put it another way. If the market had gone pear shaped and fallen another 50 points, instead of reversing, would you be telling me that the skill was in being short at that time? Of course you would! Oiga, I've been over all this from all sorts of angles and I know where the skill is. It's in risk/reward ie. not being in the trade when it is going wrong. Price is random in the short term. You may not pick it randomly, I'm sure that a lot of us believe that we are clever when we get it right and it may have been given a lot of thought, especially to probablr direction, but that is my opinion.

Guys, I think this is getting over complicated. NFP data came out, thats it!

Prior to the data release, small traders should not be in, that's the skill.

Big traders will just defend their position, because they can.

Add the previous days action (on all index markets) together with the news release, and the big players didnt need to defend too much did they?

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Spinola - I am very much into "time windows" when I trade and certainly for scalping.

Its all down the logistics of money entering and exiting the market and those 18 mins in total on the hour change generally have the most action. Second most action is the 18 mins around the half hr change - so 60 mins in the hour - and i estimate in the hr window approx in less than a third of time - over 50-60% of the changes take place - ie this is the time - new short or even long term directions might take place - as new trades are initiated and winning ( or losing trades) are exited.

You end up with more highs or lows at the start or end of the hr window - ie 9 mins to the hour and 9 mins past the hour - and so its just another aid for scalping - especially if you have had good action / movement just prior to the interim or main low/ high of the session

i therefore concentrate for new scalps in these windows rather than the 24 mins outside that are more likely for continuation of whether price is going up or down.

Hope that's made sense - it works well in busier sessions - but as W87 as said - on big news announcement - ( yet again normally on the hr or half hr change) all goes out the window - and players will play according to where all the money is for them to have ;-)

Regards

F

 

[Mr. Charts]

A "Wot Happened Next" with a difference.

The scenario is that you are a breakout trader. You have entered at the black line with a stoploss at the white line. It's gone really well with great momentum, but now that's stalled.

You are in clear air with no previous price action up at this level, so how would you plan to play it from here?

Personally I would exit all or part on stalling. There's no reason why I wouldn't scale out of two thirds of the position and exit the rest if it started to fall.
I would then look at it breaking up again to a new high or look to short if it started to reverse sharply. Any stalling on a short would make me exit.
Shorting a strongly up trending instrument is higher risk so should only be done on a much shorter time scale.

 

[Mr. Charts]

I would not have a stop loss where shown. Having gained I would trail a stop tightly upwards to preserve maximum profits.
The initial stop loss is too far away and too obvious and invites traders being taken out.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Ok, back to Barjon's chart.

From the limited data we can see that there has been quiet a few retail traders trying to call a top in this market/chart. So based on this, we can deduce that price has come from below, and the target is still to come, as this 1 cycle leg is not enough to suggest this to be the absolute high in this sequence.

So what to do:

Well if you have multiple contracts, you scale out a portion based on where we are now. This is simple enough. Using a stop here should not be the question as you either get out or let it ride out to its destination. A stop anywhere in between is asking for trouble!

If you are an all in, all out trader, you have to ask yourself - if you take profits now, will you be able to get back in later (say in the next 5-10 bars or so). If not, then you must stay in.

There has been some big profit taking on this breakout, but there is still more to come. Retail traders who tried to call a top earlier will not be so eager to do it again now. What they now see (from trends, M/A indicators etc) is a nice up bar/break out so it will change their opinion now, much to the delight of those in the know.

Once again this "random" price movement will create an environment where retail traders see strength in direction, but actually it can be very much the opposite (which was a discussion on another (valuable) thread).

If you are still all in, i would take profits off the next push up.

 

[cablemonster]

Shhhhh. breakout trades are good.

Ok, back to Barjon's chart.

From the limited data we can see that there has been quiet a few retail traders trying to call a top in this market/chart. So based on this, we can deduce that price has come from below, and the target is still to come, as this 1 cycle leg is not enough to suggest this to be the absolute high in this sequence.

So what to do:

Well if you have multiple contracts, you scale out a portion based on where we are now. This is simple enough. Using a stop here should not be the question as you either get out or let it ride out to its destination. A stop anywhere in between is asking for trouble!

If you are an all in, all out trader, you have to ask yourself - if you take profits now, will you be able to get back in later (say in the next 5-10 bars or so). If not, then you must stay in.

There has been some big profit taking on this breakout, but there is still more to come. Retail traders who tried to call a top earlier will not be so eager to do it again now. What they now see (from trends, M/A indicators etc) is a nice up bar/break out so it will change their opinion now, much to the delight of those in the know.

Once again this "random" price movement will create an environment where retail traders see strength in direction, but actually it can be very much the opposite (which was a discussion on another (valuable) thread).

If you are still all in, i would take profits off the next push up.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Shhhhh. breakout trades are good.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I just feel sorry for the poor sods on the other side of the trade!

Hang on; are they really the poor ones?

Humbug to one dimensional thinking

 

[chaselancaster]

I would move my stop to the entry point (black line) and hold...that is a significant candle on that time frame - it implies more upside to come is the greater likelyhood....even if it is at the point you show it technically overbought (whatever that means) on that and lower time frames from one shown. It is a big b/o of a range on that t/f and why limit the upside potential ? Hold with stop at b/e now.

A "Wot Happened Next" with a difference.

The scenario is that you are a breakout trader. You have entered at the black line with a stoploss at the white line. It's gone really well with great momentum, but now that's stalled.

You are in clear air with no previous price action up at this level, so how would you plan to play it from here?

 

[WR1]

should n't we all already be in the breakout and about to close,
after buying on fairly strict buying rules and closing on a close signal (of the traders choice)
a wide-ish stop at the bottom and entry to avoid the shakeout, and then loosely trail it up

if the breakout is missed - just wait for the next

the time frames do matter - because if its a breakout say on a 30m, you probably could still enter
same for Daily and Wkly sometimes, on the next pullback
if on a 1hr or 4hr - then no pass on the trade

 

[lurkerlurker]

as this 1 cycle leg is not enough to suggest this to be the absolute high in this sequence.
...
If you are still all in, i would take profits off the next push up.

I thought Jon's chart looked a little..."spooky" ;-)

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

I thought Jon's chart looked a little..."spooky" ;-)

Let's see when he comes back and lets us know a bit more.

 

[Giovan]

exit half the position, and move the SL to BE.
All this happened and the markets later turned downside in a day

 

[x4x]

To me you should have known what to do before entering the trade - if you were willing to risk 20 points to make a particular return, then you should have stuck to your plan and accepted the loss, which should be a small percentage of your account.

Using your 'intuition' might have worked this time, but will surely cost you on other occasions.

You'll never know which trade will work and which won't until you've reached your target or been stopped out.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

exit half the position, and move the SL to BE.
All this happened and the markets later turned downside in a day

Giovan, do you know which market it is???

 

[barjon]

well, some people are still in - at least with part position.

A few hours later we get to this.

??